Can Britain’s social capital help it become more resilient?

When the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, got to her feet to reveal her Spring Statement, she spoke of the importance of "building resilience to shocks in this, a more uncertain world." Russia’s illegal war in Ukraine, worsening trade terms with the United States and high borrowing costs, all cast a shadow over the government. Now, the soaring bill rises of “awful April” currently hitting millions of consumers, combine with shocking events like the closure of Heathrow as the result of a single substation fire, to provide a very real reminder of Britain's creaking capacity to deal with the regular shocks of our modern world.

'Resilience' is a controversial concept, with multiple, contested, meanings. But in this context, it refers simply to the country’s capacity to withstand shocks and recover quickly. To borrow from Rocky Balboa: "It ain't about how hard you hit; it's about how hard you can get hit and keep moving forward."

UCL is fortunate to employ some of the world world's leading experts in understanding the human, social and engineering capacity for resilience.

They tell us that, however it is understood, in the end resilience is not just about bridges, roads and airports. It is about our individual and shared capacity to withstand tough times. That is why they find it a useful way to think about our current moment, one in which one crisis seems to overlap into the other, like a climber who has lost their footing. Brexit, COVID, war, trade wars, all mean that we have lost our balance, never quite falling completely but unable to steady ourselves from one slip to the next.

Part of that anxiety emerges from the ever-increasing connectedness of our world.

Kamal Achuthan, Director at the UCL Centre for Urban Sustainability and Resilience, makes this clear. He says:

"Systems are often becoming too complex, as in the dependency between operations and the number of stakeholders involved (particularly if they are private, as it sometimes involves multiple subcontractors). So, there is less visibility in the system-wide risk management and resilience planning".

And so, our interconnected world creates a complex system of risk, in which knock-on effects from one crisis to the next create untold events. As we saw last week, a fire at suburban substation presents Heathrow officials with extraordinary decisions to make, which then takes out an entire airport for a day, impacting travellers the world over, as well as trade and the economy.

On top of this interconnectedness, it seems clear that the threats that the country faces have also rapidly shifted. It is easy to forget that relative to most of the 20th century, the last 30 years of globalisation have been relatively benign: a world in which new complex interconnected systems were created without a need to withstand the sort of global conflict or disruption that characterized previous generations. Yet with COVID and the war in Ukraine, climate change and the war in Gaza we can no longer take that world for granted.

"Climate change and technology such as cyber threats related risks are difficult to predict and prepare for”. Achuthan says. “It's why our research shows that planning to be independent of risks". This is about building in some slack within systems. This, of course, poses its own challenges for the government when the economy is seemingly so weak, and the government is unable to provide the funding to deliver on the promises of today, let alone build in capacity for shocks tomorrow.

Here we come back to the government's economic plans, where keeping the Office of Budget Responsibility onside has become the centrepiece of fiscal decision making, in part, the Chancellor would argue to ensure Britain has the resilience to withstand future shocks. Markets expect Britain to work within its means, the Chancellor tells us, and given that she has ruled out most major tax rises, that means reducing public spending.

Wei Cui of UCL’s Department of Economics understands why Reeves is reluctant to turn to further tax rises. “Tax revenues as a share of GDP are projected to rise from 35.3% this year to a historic high of 37.7% in 2027-28,” he told us. Such a tax burden could “potentially hinder economic growth due to reduced private sector activity.”

But seeking to balance the books on the basis of cuts to welfare is also not an approach without its risks. The reductions to disability benefits announced by the government, after all, highlight another aspect of resilience – that is, our individual capacity to withstand crisis – be it job loss or a health scare.

As Professor Lauren Andres from UCL’s Bartlett School, makes clear, this is where questions of resilience come to be found within families and communities.

Her work focuses on looking at how, during times of crisis, networks of support can be forged and discovered – COVID-19 was a very real-life example of this. Neighbours supporting one another with food parcels and checking in – volunteering within communities all of these were crucial foundations of national resilience. Similar lessons can be learnt now when we think about future health challenges and tackling poverty.

"We know that tackling poverty and the subsequent challenges require a strong safety net and a deep network of social capital and connection”, Andres outlines. These are incredibly important to protecting people in a world of increasing climate change and economic crisis. We know economic shocks aren't going away, and so how we properly support communities and build the foundations for a sense of security are vital to tackling the social challenges we face".

What might this look like? Well, it requires both a supportive state and an approach that values the social connections we make with others. As recent research from Meta, Behavioural Insights Team and Neighbourly Lab demonstrates, resilience is about both social and economic capital.

It's here where Britain has something of a good story to tell. As Polly Curtis at Demos and David Halpern at the Behavioural Insights Team have set out, Britain has far greater connectedness across classes than some other countries, including the United States. This social capital, they suggest, could be the bedrock of national resilience and a story we've heard throughout Britain. In our Policy Lab project, Ordinary Hope, we explored the work that is going on in communities across Britain. Work which will be crucial to building the kind of stable and secure future that Reeves and Starmer have spoken about in recent weeks.

And this will be crucial for the government's political future.

We know that shocks will continue to roll in. It is how we respond that will be crucial. Britain may seem to be in crisis but in times of crisis it becomes more important that we value and recognise our strengths. Speaking to the experts at UCL and those on the front line via projects like Ordinary Hope, it seems that we can build a more resilient country – one that makes the everyday things we all value more possible. Ultimately, our capacity to work together and for the government to support and build on our strong social foundation through welfare and policy will provide a stronger, more resilient Britain.