Governing the (im)mobility of fleeing Ukrainians and Russians in Denmark and Poland

Download the full report here.

A new report from the UCL Policy Lab, offers a critical analysis of how Poland and Denmark have managed the migration of Ukrainians and Russians following the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. The report focuses on the implementation of the Temporary Protection Directive (TPD), a EU framework providing urgent protection and public services to displaced persons from countries experiencing mass influxes of refugees.

Dr Denny Pencheva, the report’s lead author said:

“The unprecedented triggering of the Temporary Protection Directive (TPD) in early March 2022 has been largely praised as the right thing to do considering the rapid escalation of human displacement in the aftermath of the war in Ukraine. Exploring a variety of academic and non-academic sources, as well as empirical data, the report focuses on two case studies - Denmark and Poland. Both countries have been described as Eurosceptic and both harbour restrictive views on migration and migration policies. Yet, both countries have gone above and beyond in supporting fleeing Ukrainians.”

The TPD, triggered in March 2022 to provide temporary protection for those feeling Ukraine, grants immediate access to residence permits and a wide range of public services for displaced persons. The report explores the application of the TPD in Poland and Denmark, two Eurosceptic EU member states with a legacy of known for restrictive migration policies. Despite these policies, Poland has hosted nearly one million registered Ukrainian refugees, while Denmark, which does not uphold certain EU asylum policies, has adopted a national equivalent of the TPD to support fleeing Ukrainians.

The research was motivated by two intertwined factors. First, the unprecedented triggering of the TP in 2022 combined with the recent decision to extend its remit beyond what was thought to be its maximum three-year validity has raised questions about the immediate and longer-term policy responses to human displacement. The report also highlights the issues of resource shortages and data collection, urging both national and EU policymakers to improve support systems and create an EU-wide database for more effective migration management.

Authored by Dr Denny Pencheva, Kamilla Engebretsen, and Aleksandra Ruhan, the report sets out a series of key findings and recommendations designed to improve outcomes for those affected by the TPD. These include:

• Recommendation that the EU Commission and the Council of Ministers establish a working agreement on the definition and objective criteria of “mass influx” as per the TPD, which would provide clearer guidance for individual member states and improve policy and resource planning in the longer term.

• The creation of a database, allowing governments share information and data about the number of registered Ukrainians on their respective territories. Such database would include all EU member states, as well as non-EU member states which have introduced similar protection programs.

• National and EU policymakers must consider whether/to what extent the TPD will become a permanent feature of the EU’s asylum toolkit and if so, to work towards eradicating unfair double standards practices. The report found a co-existence of a more liberal approach towards fleeing Ukrainians vs the more established securitised approach towards all other asylum seekers.

• EU policymakers to consider ways of providing better support to national policymaking bodies in the event that the TPD is triggered again in the future. In both cases, the evidence presented issues with both human and material resources needed to process and accommodate fleeing Ukrainians, as well as wider issues of institutional capacities and systemic resilience in the face of sudden migration pressures.

• Improving data collection and data sharing to allow for more efficient monitoring of secondary migration.

The report comes at a critical time, when more analysis is needed to help shape effective responses to those fleeing conflict and the impacts of host nations. As Dr Pencheva sets out:

“The report starts an important discussion about the role of the TPD in the wider EU asylum toolkit, and what key policy lessons we can learn from it. We hope that our report's findings and policy recommendations are listened to by policymakers in the Commission and the Council, as well as those on the national levels with responsibilities for policy foresight and public services planning.”

Dr Manuel Vogt, Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science and theme lead for the UCL Policy Lab’s Promoting Democracy and Peace programme, said

“This is a timely and insightful analysis of EU immigration policies in the context of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Examining in depth the approaches of two different countries, it draws concrete policy lessons that can inform current and future policymaking and will be of great interest to EU policymakers in the field of migration.”

The findings of the report result from an extensive review of academic and non-academic sources. These included peer-reviewed scholarship, legal analyses, government, policy, and NGO reports, as well as a variety of empirical data (e.g. data contained in the above sources, as well as data produced by global and national databases). The authors consulted sources originally written in English, Danish, and Polish with all relevant translations conducted and verified by each bilingual Research Assistant: Aleksandra Ruhan for Polish-English translations and Kamilla Engebretsen for Danish-English translations.

This report is based on pilot research, which was funded by UCL Department of Political Science’s research fund for the 2023-2024 academic year. The publication of the report is generously supported by the Promoting Democracy and Peace cluster at UCL Policy Lab.