Global efforts to avoid catastrophic climate change risk being derailed

The report, Derailment Risk: How Climate Action Could Go Off Track, by UCL’s Climate Action Unit, the University of Exeter, and the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR), highlights the unintended consequences of well-meaning climate policies and investments.  

It warns that without better coordination and governance, actions taken by governments, businesses, and financial institutions could create systemic risks that slow or even reverse progress toward global climate goals.  

The researchers argue that a vicious cycle whereby systemic factors, like insurers pulling out of insurance markets, undermine climate action could derail the world from a trajectory for emissions reductions that keeps temperatures below the 2°C target set in the 2015 Paris Agreement. The researchers say this “derailment risk” is dangerously overlooked. 

The report highlights the 2024 floods in Spanish region of Valencia, where a year’s worth of rain fell in eight hours, leading to the deaths of more than 200 people and causing widespread damage. 

Climate change exacerbated the disaster, increasing the risk of extreme rainfall and of flooding, due to persistent drying of the ground. However, the populist Vox party capitalised on public anger and low trust in politics and blamed the floods on “climate fanaticism”. Despite their opposition to decarbonisation climate adaptation, polls recorded an increase in support for Vox, with many people already disillusioned and mistrusting of the government. 

The report is part of a two-year project involving the UCL’s Climate Action Unit, the Strategic Climate Risks Initiative (SCRI) think tank, the University of Exeter, and the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR).  

The report sets out five capabilities that will help us navigate in the “climate storm” of 1.5°C overshoot and avoid derailment – which are similar to the capabilities a crew needs to navigate a storm: 

• Situational awareness can be improved by addressing blind spots that are common in risk assessments, developing early warning systems, and undertaking scenario exercises.  
• Stories that motivate action for the new, more difficult reality. Our climate stories should emphasise resilience under pressure and how to navigate extreme conditions without losing focus on tackling the causes and aiming for better futures. 
• Resilience - The world needs to move beyond incremental adaptation of infrastructure – such as flood barriers and temperature regulation – to the transformation of societal systems. 
• Speed - We must rapidly and simultaneously cut greenhouse gas emissions while also adapting to new climate realities.  
• Governance - Decision-making systems must be modified to ensure a beneficial relationship between adaptation and accelerated decarbonisation. Politicians will need to be more candid with populations about the reality of climate change. 

Lead author Laurie Laybourn (SCRI and University of Exeter) said: “This situation – which we call derailment – is like sailors becoming overwhelmed by a storm and so losing their ability to navigate or even stay afloat. 

““Until now, the job has been to persuade the crew that the storm is coming. We have taken some climate action – steering the ship away from the most dangerous waters – but now we are entering the figurative and literal ‘storm’ of 1.5°C overshoot. At this point, navigating becomes harder – our ability to act is pulled in lots of different directions. This could put us on a trajectory to global disaster. So, we need a strategy to keep us focussed and navigate to safety.” 

Co-author Daniel Jonusas (UCL Climate Action Unit) said: “As delegates prepare for COP30 in Brazil, our report shows that we must stop treating climate disruption as a distant threat and start defending climate action itself. Resilience must become a strategic priority if we are to prevent derailment.”  

The UCL Climate Action Unit is a group of experts in neuroscience, psychology and the social sciences who aim to develop practical approaches to tackling climate change. 

Links 

• Read Derailment Risk – Why climate strategies might fail – and how to fix them 
• Daniel Jonusas’s academic profile 
• Strategic Climate Risk Initiative  
• A toolkit for managing derailment risk 
• UCL Climate Action Unit 
• UCL Earth Sciences 
• UCL Mathematical & Physical Sciences 

Image 

Credit:Boyloso 

Media contact 

Mark Greaves 

T: +44 (0)7990 675947 

E: m.greaves [at] ucl.ac.uk