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Comment: Do not be fooled by Sarkozy - France's soul is still leftwing

24 April 2007

On Sunday France delivered confirmation, for most political pundits, of a popular shift to the right.

Nicolas Sarkozy, the conservative candidate, emerged comfortably ahead of the Socialist Ségolène Royal. …

The Marxist left, commentators argue, has lost its supremacy in French political culture. …

But the truth is more complicated, just as the depiction of Sarkozy's march to the Elysée as a Thatcher moment is simplistic. …

The policies of the right were repudiated by French voters in spectacular fashion in the 2004 regional and European elections. The massive vote against the European constitutional treaty in May 2005 sent the message that the neoliberal drift of the European Union was perceived as a direct threat to the French social state. …

Themes that have traditionally been associated with the left - equality, social justice, free secular education, free health services, public services owned and run by the state - still enjoy majority support. …

How then can the electoral success of Sarkozy be explained? …

The far left, a force to be reckoned with in France, was unable to unite and present a single candidate. No fewer than three Trotskyist candidates, a Communist and the altermondialiste José Bové were competing for the votes of the same constituency. …

Ségolène Royal, meanwhile, conducted a lacklustre and centrist campaign that alienated much of her electorate. Instead of coming out in defence of the social state and social justice, she emulated Blairite tactics in an attempt to triangulate Sarkozy's politics. …

Royal's approach demoralised and angered traditional leftwing voters (many of whom none the less felt compelled to vote for her). …

The more moderate and middle-class elements in the socialist electorate lost patience with a candidate who seemed unable to defeat Sarkozy. By backing the centrist François Bayrou they voted tactically, since opinion polls suggested that Bayrou could win a contest against Sarkozy.

Ségolène Royal has squandered a golden opportunity of defeating Sarkozy, whose brutal political style and neoliberal agenda engender such widespread fear. But that opportunity is not altogether gone, for she has not lost her major asset: Sarkozy himself. Surfing on a Tout Sauf Sarkozy coalition ("Anybody But Sarkozy"), Royal might just make it.

Dr Philippe Marlière (UCL French), 'The Guardian'