UKADR 2024 Thursday Breakout Sessions

The Efficacy of Nature-Inspired Solutions in Optimising Tsunami Evacuation Strategies for Pandemic Scenarios
Presenting author(s): Malith Senevirathne, Global Disaster Resilience Centre, School of Applied Sciences, University of Huddersfield
Further author(s): Dilanthi Amaratunga, Richard Haigh
Abstract: The compounding effects of concurrent disasters have exacerbated integrated risks, significantly affecting the long-term health and livelihoods of vulnerable communities. Lessons learned from Sri Lanka's coastal cities, which have coped with both a tsunami and a pandemic, underscore deficiencies in preparedness for these risks, including gaps in geospatial analysis, population-centric management, multi-objective decision-making, dynamic risk management, and risk communication. The long-lasting duration of pandemics raises the likelihood of multiple hazards occurring concurrently in vulnerable areas, leading to more severe impacts. In response to these challenges, Nature-Inspired Solutions (NIS) have emerged as promising tools for optimising existing strategies to address integrated risks effectively. This study aims to investigate the efficacy of NIS in optimising tsunami evacuation strategies for pandemic scenarios, with a specific focus on tsunami risk in Sri Lankan coastal cities. Leveraging NIS methodologies such as nature-inspired optimisation algorithms, the research evaluates their suitability in optimising tsunami evacuation strategies for pandemic scenarios. The study proposes a dispersed tsunami evacuation strategy designed to tackle challenges related to social distancing, dynamic route determination, and relief centre locations based on identified NIS applications. The results provide valuable insights to enhance multi-hazard evacuation strategies, including better resource allocation, ensuring safe distancing, and improving communication and resilience.

Presenting author(s): Annika Bose Styczynski, O.P. Jindal Global University
Abstract: We just completed the first year with on average temperatures crossing 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels. According to the IEA (2024), “global energy-related CO2 emissions grew by 1.1% in 2023 to reach a new record high of 37.4 billion tones (Gt)”. There is, de-facto, no global phase-down of fossil fuel sources of energy or a reduction of global Greenhouse Gas emissions taking place in the foreseeable future to keep temperature rise in check. This year’s risk report by the World Economic Forum looks at a 3°C world and echoes what the IPCC suggests: “the breaching of critical thresholds will trigger long-lasting and fundamental changes.” Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) expects temperatures to increase between 5-8 degrees Celsius by century end for Europe. The European Environmental Agency (EEA) published its first climate risk assessment report in January 2024. This flash talk is to synthesize latest insights into disaster risks emanating from climate change surrounded by plenty of independent and co-dependent economic, social and ecologic problems. The aim of this conference participation is to find co-authors for a publication that showcases how collaborative initiatives can make a positive impact on reducing disaster risk by effectively helping businesses and communities to prepare, respond and recover from disaster. 

Presenting author(s): Thanya Weerasinghe, Global Disaster Resilience Center, University of Huddersfield
Further author(s): Richard Haigh, Dilanthi Amaratunga
Abstract: Many major tea-producing nations, Sri Lanka included, are currently facing challenges arising from climate change. In Sri Lanka, the tea industry comprises both Regional Plantation Companies (RPCs) and tea smallholders. The RPCs are the only publicly listed companies engaged in tea production, processing, and sales. In addition to processing their tea yields, RPCs also process bought tea yields from smallholders, thus serving as crucial entities within the supply chain. Furthermore, being publicly listed, they publish annual reports to communicate financial and non-financial information. Accordingly, this study seeks to understand the adaptation strategies and the corporate processes for developing them based on annual reports of all publicly listed RPCs (N=19). Employing a deductive content analysis structured around the IFRS S2 climate-related disclosures standard and an inductive thematic analysis, this research delves into the companies' communication on governance, strategy, risk management, and targets and metrics regarding climate change adaptation. While the deductive analysis reveals inadequate disclosure on physical climate risks, the inductive analysis shows that most RPCs prioritize assessing and managing these risks, employing various adaptation strategies. These findings suggest that further investigation, possibly through interviews, is required to understand the nuances of the risk management process and lack of disclosures.

Presenting author(s): Lidia Cano Pecharroman, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Further author(s): ChangHoon Hahn
Abstract: As governments race to implement new climate adaptation solutions that prepare for more frequent flooding, they must seek policies that are effective for all communities and uphold climate justice. This requires evaluating policies not only on their overall effectiveness but also on whether their benefits are felt across all communities. We illustrate
the importance of considering such disparities for flood adaptation using the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program Community Rating System and its dataset of ∼2.5 million flood insurance claims. We use CausalFlow, a causal inference method based on deep generative models, to estimate the treatment effect of flood adaptation interventions based on a community’s income, racial demographics, population, flood risk, educational attainment, and precipitation. We find that the program saves communities $5,000–15,000 per household. However, these savings are not evenly spread across communities. For example, for low-income communities savings sharply decline as flood risk increases in contrast to their high-income counterparts with all else equal. Even among low-income communities, there is a gap in savings between predominantly white and non-white communities: savings of predominantly white communities can be higher by more than $6,000 per household. As communities worldwide ramp up efforts to reduce losses inflicted by floods, simply prescribing a series flood adaptation measures is not enough. They must be accompanied by necessary technical and economic support to strengthen communities’ resilience amid historical disenfranchisement, racism, and inequality. Furthermore, future flood adaptation efforts should go beyond reducing losses overall and aim to equitably support communities in the race for climate adaptation.

Presenting author(s): Ilan Kelman, University College London and University of Agder
Abstract: Academia is notorious for disciplinary and geographic silos, even leading to the same words having different meanings. An example is 'mitigation'. Within disaster research, it refers to harm or damage reduction or minimisation, while in climate change research, 'mitigation' means stopping climate change; i.e., prevention. Two other overlaps are (i) climate change research's 'adaptation' (with definitional variations in anthropology and evolutionary biology) compared to disaster research's 'adjustment' and (ii) both fields' multiple definitions of 'resilience' (with others coming from psychology, engineering, and ecology). Given disaster research's long history, many foundations of which remain relevant today, it is well-placed to connect across all these disciplines and more by offering a space to connect and to find common ground. In doing so, disaster research itself becomes situated in wider contexts, including the generations of science on pollution prevention, violences, health, and sustainability. These commonalities within research across disciplines and decades then better serve the application of contemporary science to policy and practice.

Presenting author(s): Wan-Yu Shih, Disaster Risk Reduction and Resilience, National Taiwan University
Abstract: Despite living in the same cities, people's experiences of heat exposure vary due to differences in available natural cooling. For socio-economically deprived areas, nature-based solutions are critical for reducing electricity needs for cooling. In fast-growing cities, economic benefits from land development often override the conservation of natural areas, and the consequences of this loss are rarely seen. This study investigates spatial and temporal temperature anomalies in response to changes in green infrastructure across three adjacent cities in Northern Taiwan: Taipei, New Taipei, and Taoyuan. Utilizing observational data from weather stations and the Taiwan ReAnalysis Downscaling data spanning from 1981 to 2022, the results reveal significant warming in natural areas and inequality in heat exposure within cities. Areas such as forested mountains, northern coastal zones, and the Tamsui river corridor—critical for conducting sea-land breezes—have experienced notable warming in recent decades. This warming pattern demonstrates a close interplay with local and regional urbanization dynamics. The overlaps with socio-economically disadvantaged areas further highlight that some of these areas have experienced a disproportionate increase in exposure to heat. Based on these findings, this study suggests prioritizing green infrastructure rehabilitation along wind corridors.

Presenting author(s): Jude Nilantha Randeniya, Global Disaster Resilience Centre, School of Applied Sciences, University of Huddersfield
Further author(s): Richard Haigh, Dilanthi Amaratunga
Abstract: Over the past thirty years, scientists have explored strategies to mitigate climate change's effects, with studies (IPCC, 2023) emphasizing its unpredictability and sparking interest in AI solutions. While AI has shown potential in predicting climate scenarios, its adoption remains limited. The discussion around AI's role in climate action gained momentum after 2018. The study conducted a comprehensive bibliometric analysis of scientific literature on climate change, artificial intelligence, and climate change predictions using the Scopus database, 238 selected publications from 2019 to 2023. China emerged as the leader in publications, after the USA and India. The analysis highlighted a notable trend towards advancing research in both climate change and AI. Since 2020, AI has become a pivotal element across various disciplines. Climate Change and AI have emerged as core research fields, closely interconnected. The study highlights increased attention from researchers in these areas, driving innovative AI technologies. Identified gaps include the lack of a comprehensive framework for predicting climate change impacts, uncertainties in current techniques' accuracy, and limited adaptability to diverse contexts. Moreover, the research emphasizes the need for established principles and codes of practice in Climate Change and AI research, aligning with the United Nations AI Guidelines and the Sendai Framework.

Presenting author(s): Gemma Cremen, Department of Civil, Environmental and Geomatic Engineering, UCL
Further author(s): Jeremy Phillips, Hugh Sinclair, Carmine Galasso
Abstract: What are the key strategies for modelling multi-hazard risk for urban futures in data-scarce environments? This question emerged as a central challenge within the Tomorrow’s Cities Urban Risk Hub (2019-2024), which worked across nine global south cities. The first years of the Hub’s work were focused on the development of cutting-edge approaches to multi-hazard risk analytics. This included the production of people-centred ‘impact metrics’ that capture the systemic and social dimensions of disaster risk, and the use of a virtual testbed to demonstrate the potential consequences of multi-hazard events through synthetic data that drew from real global south contexts. Whilst innovative, this quantitative approach requires data-rich environments and skilled scientists/technicians for the delivery of high-fidelity results. In many contexts, critical data on natural hazards, and properties that determine their impacts are not available, and local teams do not yet have the capacity to acquire this information rapidly. As we will show, a key strategy to overcome these challenges relied on crafting four methodological typologies that were tied to different desired outcomes; from learning- to implementation-oriented. Here we will discuss the piloting of this strategy in cities with wide-ranging data availability and capacity to acquire new data.

Presenting author(s): Thaisa Comelli, UCL Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction
Further author(s): Emin Menteşe, Nüket İpek Çetin, Erdem Ozer, Prashant Rawal
Abstract: Future Visions are powerful epistemic objects, capable of capturing aspirations and creating synergies for purposeful socio-spatial transformation. In contexts marked by disaster risk and climate change, visions are crucial for the communication of desired futures, and for building strategies to move policy trajectories away from business as usual and towards more just futures. Yet visions can often be too vague or little realistic. To respond to the challenges imposed by rapid urbanisation and multihazard risk, urban futures must be simultaneously inclusive, desirable and plausible. Based on the future methods developed as part of Tomorrow’s Cities Decision Support Environment (TCDSE), we demonstrate and discuss a strategy to translate normative future visions into plausible urban scenarios that respond to future risks in rapidly developing contexts. Through key work strands – land use planning, future exposure generation, and policy co-creation – the core values and design elements of visions are preserved, but translated into technical languages. Participatory approaches enable community stakeholders to understand and challenge those translations, which leads to knowledge exchanges that unpack future trends, and trade-offs in planning and equity. This helps to raise the voices of marginalised groups, by expressing their visions in formats that are legitimised by policy actors.

Presenting author(s): Roberto Gentile and Tanvi Deshpande, London School of Economics and Political Science
Further author(s): Tanvi Deshpande, Roberto Gentile, Erdem Ozer, Sukirit Amatya, Nisha Shreshta and Leah Aoko
Abstract: In line with the UN risk reduction frameworks promoting participatory and people-centred approaches, this paper presents a methodology to collectively assess risk and its policy implications on tomorrow's cities. The methodology is presented within the Tomorrow’s Cities decision support environment, which facilitates a participatory approach to risk-sensitive and pro-poor urban planning aided by physics-based models for future cities.
Risk assessments can effectively address risk at the grassroots level when communities at risk are involved in generating and interpreting risk information. Former stages of the Tomorrow's Cities methodology have used participatory approaches involving communities to co-produce risk-relevant information. The risk assessment methodology discussed here focuses on communicating and assessing future multi-hazard risk information. Unlike traditional risk communication which involves unidirectional flow of information, this methodology promotes multi-directional flow of risk information. Key urban residents are invited to interpret future urban risk, make revisions to reduce risk equitably and identify governance-enabling mechanisms). The methodology relies on a visual tool and interactive activities/techniques to disseminate risk information to a diverse set of urban residents such as communities at risk, urban planners, local government officials and practitioners in a workshop setting. This methodology has been applied/deployed in several cities of the global south and findings from one city (Rapti in Nepal) are discussed in detail here.

Presenting author(s): Mark Pelling, UCL Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction
Further author(s): Carmine Galasso, Max Hope, Thaisa Comelli, Gemma Cremen, Hugh Sinclair, Ramesh Guragain, Ekin Ekici
Abstract: The future is arriving fast. As rapid urbanisation and human-induced climate changes unfold, cities continue to grow and new ones emerge every day, creating vicious cycles of multihazard risk and impact, which only exacerbate unresolved social inequalities. Breaking those cycles requires changing decision-making environments, so that urban governance is evidence-based, future-oriented and inclusive. This is a daunting challenge that requires bold imaginations from multiple stakeholders, opportunities for policy innovation and cutting-edge, systemic risk analysis. In this presentation we will discuss how a novel decision support tool – The Tomorrow’s Cities Decision Support Environment (TCDSE) – is catalysing inclusive and evidence-based ‘enabling environments’ for risk reduction across nine different urban contexts in South America, Africa, Middle East and South Asia. We will provide critical reflections on the progress and challenges of working in these distinct socio-cultural, physical and institutional contexts to create bespoke pathways for urban change. Through a critical comparative lens, we will introduce a framework to analyse such enabling environments and theorise impact from a perspective of risk. Importantly, this analysis will explore the challenges and opportunities to influence purposeful institutional change through interdisciplinary approaches and the political role of science.

Presenting author(s): Jacqueline Stephens, Flinders University
Further author(s): Laura Nolan, Nabressa Murphy
Abstract: Climate change disproportionately threatens young people’s health, human rights, and security. However, minimal research exists on how young people interact with climate science information, nor its impact on their wellbeing. To address this, we conducted semi-structured interviews with thirty young people (aged 18-24-years) recruited at an Australian university during February and March 2024. As all participants were university students, socioeconomic reflexivity was incorporated into the thematic analysis. Participants were from a mixture of cultural identities and study disciplines, with five from rural (high-risk disaster) areas, five international students, and 40% female-identifying. Three themes were identified. Firstly, climate science information was instantaneously circulated and consumed through the mediation of globalisation and social media algorithms. Second, participants expressed distrust of the unknown vested interests influencing climate change information, particularly financial motives and fearmongering, and instead placed trust in objective data. Finally, participants experienced eco-anxiety, used eco-avoidance as a coping mechanism, and expressed a need to educate young people to interpret climate information critically. This research contributes an understanding on how young people's navigation of climate science data is shaped by their perspective of trustworthiness and experiences of eco-avoidance and eco-anxiety, and the risks this poses to their mental health and wellbeing.

Presenting author(s): Kim-Anh Anastasia Chau, UCL Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction
Further author(s): Rebekah Yore, Joanna Faure Walker, Adam Harris
Abstract: Prior research finds that the impact of disaster experience on perceived safety may vary depending on the severity of the event and other individual factors. This study explores the relationship between past experiences with earthquakes and tsunamis and changes in feelings of safety through focus group discussions followed by surveys conducted in 2023 with 300 inhabitants in the Tohoku region, Japan. The area was hit both by the March 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and the March 2022 Fukushima earthquake, with different impacts. Findings reveal that: (1) respondents feel generally either the same or safer after 2022 and 2011, with a small proportion feeling less safe, (2) additional physical protective measures which have been added either after 2011 or 2022 (e.g. seawall) are not associated with changes in feelings of safety, but (3) moving further away from the sea and living on higher ground appear to make feeling safer more likely. However, (4) our analysis does not find evidence of a relationship between changes in feelings of safety and behaviour intentions. These results suggest that people may feel safer after a disaster if their physical vulnerability is decreased or if their experience indicates a lower personal risk.

Presenting author(s): JungHee Hyun, IIASA (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis)
Abstract: The Flood Resilience Measurement for Communities (FRMC) framework and tool was developed with the aim to measure community level resilience to flooding in a reliable, empirically verified and useful way. Since its inception in 2013, the framework and tool has been implemented in more than 296 flood-prone communities across the world and has been used as an evaluation metric to measure progress and helps to identify the possible areas for intervention. This study uses an inventory of 168 interventions implemented in the Flood Resilience Alliance communities to assess whether the FRMC was indeed informative in selecting and evaluating resilience-building interventions. We first conduct an analysis of whether and how interventions correspond to community needs and aims. Second, we empirically assess FRMC’s applicability to monitor and evaluate the impact of interventions. Our initial results show that systems change, resilience-building requires a portfolio of interventions rather than individual resilience outcomes. To avoid creating an incentive to choose interventions that automatically display an increase in resilience, which is driven by outcome-based evaluation metrics in the short term, a framework on measuring resilience-building resulting from this study, aims to capture systematic, long-term resilience building.

Presenting author(s): Tracey Coates, Kingston University
Further author(s): Hilda Mulrooney, Nevena Nancheva, Elly Ricci, Emma Higginbotham
Abstract: Community resilience remains central to Disaster Risk Reduction despite debates over definition and operalisation. The publication of the UK’s first Resilience Framework in December 2022 reaffirms this approach and recognises the vital role that the Voluntary and Community Sector (VCS) plays. The UK Government claims it “will continue to deepen and strengthen its relationships with the VCS in England” and the “capabilities of the VCS will be better understood and integrated” so as to strengthen resilience at the local level in England (Cabinet Office 2022:46). How this is to be achieved is not yet clear although the role Local Resilience Forums is to be strengthened.   However, years of austerity combined with increasing hazards have left Local Authorities, Resilience Forums and the VCS sector with limited resources.  This pilot project takes a collaborative approach to identify how the VCS might be more effectively integrated at the local level, with Greater London as its focus.  Representatives from academia, Local Authorities, Local Infrastructure Organisations, emergency planning, charity organisations, partnerships and community groups are brought together to discuss challenges and identify areas for further research to enable practical solutions which recognise and support the role of the VCS in community resilience.

Presenting author(s): Sanjay Agarwal, Director, Disaster Management, India
Abstract: The study elaborates the physical and socio-economic impacts of major catastrophes in the form of J&K floods, which got aggravated due to limited ability and coping capacity. It depicts how community is marginalised and bear the brunt of a disaster without any resilience in fulfilment of their needs during relief, response and recovery. Furthermore, the recovery process being slow, expensive and complex, has a tendency of tapering off with the passage of time. The study also highlights the requirement of a national recovery framework not only to facilitate a sequenced post-disaster rehabilitation and reconstruction but also to provide opportunity for sustainable development and enhanced community Resilience. It is proposed to establish a disaster recovery centre with a panel of experts from all relevant sectors to assist during both early recovery and long- term reconstruction. In addition, an appropriate institutional and financial mechanism should be worked out for effective implementation and monitoring. It is argued that the recovery framework developed in advance with a set of actions, may prevent disaster-affected people from sliding into long-term poverty and deprivation.

Presenting author(s): Ellen Robson, Institute of Hazard, Risk, and Resilience (IHRR), Durham University and Peter McGowran, Oxford Brookes University
Further author(s): 
Abstract: Recent studies suggest that building a road network that is resilient to landslides is as much a question of physiographic features and engineering as it is a question of governance and politics (Robson et al., 2021). Here, we present the outcomes of a workshop exploring the linkages between engineering and politics and the possible directions of future interdisciplinary research on resilient road design. In doing so,  we will address the following questions: How influential are perverse incentives and stakeholder conflicts in generating landslides during road construction? Are these perverse incentives peculiar to particular geographical regions (e.g. Gurung, 2024; McGowran, 2024), or a common feature of road construction processes globally? To what extent might these perverse incentives and stakeholder conflicts explain a recent uptick in landslide activity? How can slope stabilisation be more successfully integrated into complex (geo)political contexts to reduce landslide risk?

Presenting author(s): Georgios Marios Karagiannis, Resilience First
Further author(s): Sarah Dryhurst, Gianluca Pescaroli (UCL Institute for Disaster and Risk Reduction)
Abstract: Public alert and warning systems are disaster and crisis response functions common to nearly all types of hazards and threats, and are needed for holistically managing cascading, compound, and interconnected risk. Despite a growing body of research on people’s disaster behaviours and responses, critical knowledge gaps remain about what makes effective public warning systems. This presentation explores the selection of and trust toward a range of information sources about a possible disaster, based on the Lloyd’s Register Foundation World Risk Poll, a global survey administered in 121 countries. Our preliminary findings demonstrate that the preferred and most trusted information sources vary across countries. Furthermore, our analysis supports that warning recipients attempt to confirm warnings by seeking information from multiple sources and communications pathways.

Presenting author(s): Shipra Jain, UCL Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction
Further author(s): The WWRP community
Abstract: In this presentation, I will provide an overview of the continuous endeavours of the World Meteorological Organization's World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) in bolstering the global initiative for comprehensive early warnings. Additionally, I will provide a concise summary of the forthcoming research initiatives and undertakings for the next five years within the WWRP, specifically aimed at advancing the forecasting of extreme events and improving early warning systems.

Presenting author(s): Neil Denton, After Disasters Network, Institute of Hazard, Risk and Resilience, University of Durham
Abstract: If community resilience is the product of mobilizing community assets, then communication, connection, collaboration, reciprocity, and trust are the keys that unlock those assets and enable them to be effectively deployed to protect against and ameliorate the impact of disaster. A strength-based approach that promotes the awareness and exploration of inter-group community needs, collective priorities and collaborative activities offers a way of fostering flexible and connected “polycentric” governance. Drawing from our COVID experience of holding a series of focus groups and support sessions with over 140 practitioners from local government and the community and voluntary sector from across the U.K. we offer our learning and progress to date. Reflecting on the research about the important role social capital plays in promoting resilience, we propose a transferable framework focussed on the primacy of relationships between citizens and organisations. We call for closer interdisciplinary approaches to research and policy development that have communities and practitioner voices at their heart.

Presenting author(s): Shiyi Zhang, UCL Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction
Abstract: It is evident that heatwaves are more intensive and frequent due to climate change. The resulting rising temperatures lead to individuals’ non-economic losses and damages such as health problems. Much literature focused on physical health, yet the interplay between mental health and climate change has been relatively neglected, particularly in developing countries including China which has the largest population and is severely influenced by heatwaves. This research therefore aims to examine the correlation between heatwaves and mental health among the Chinese population, tracking their perceptions and reactions over time and identify factors that may exacerbate or mitigate mental health conditions induced by heatwaves. Then the research will propose recommendations for establishing an effective and practical mental health system in China to strengthen its climate resilience.

Presenting author(s): Noah Wescombe, Alliance to Feed the Earth in Disasters (ALLFED)
Abstract: Food systems today face interconnected, systemic risks that could culminate in widespread disruptions triggering extreme global famine, in addition to neglected extreme risks. This paper introduces the concept of Global Catastrophic Food Failure (GCFF) to describe such scenarios; where food shortages overwhelm response capacities, exceeding response capacities of governments and private sectors, necessitating extraordinary interventions. GCFFs are defined by rapid onset, high magnitude, and massive humanitarian impact that is global in scale. While the exact likelihood of GCFFs is uncertain, consequences would be extreme including widespread malnutrition and starvation. Currently, GCFF is a blind spot requiring research and policy efforts to strengthen food systems’ resilience and capacity to sustain humanity.

Presenting author(s): David Ortiz Haro, Nutriope
Further author(s): Sébastien Morizot
Abstract: Nutriope, conceived and coordinated by Sébastien Morizot and David Ortiz Haro, represents a pioneering endeavor in operational nutrition and food security policy development. With a paucity of empirical research on the nutritional needs of first responders and their impact on emergency operations, Nutriope aims to address this critical gap through rigorous investigation. Grounded in a multidisciplinary approach, the project delineates four key axes of inquiry: Health and dietetics, Food Security, Civil Security, and Social and Human Sciences.
Nutriope seeks to enhance the individual food security of civil security actors during interventions and disaster scenarios. Through methodologically rigorous testing protocols, diverse stakeholders are comprehensively examined to elucidate their nutritional requirements and inform evidence-based strategies. Initially conceived as a binational initiative between Ecuador and France, Nutriope has garnered substantial interest from governmental entities, signaling a broader commitment to its ongoing development. With aspirations extending to 2030 and beyond, the project's ultimate goal is to advocate for the formulation and widespread adoption of international public policies aimed at optimizing the nutritional well-being of first responders.

Presenting author(s): Lan Li, UCL IRDR
Further author(s): Caroline Wood, Patty Kostkova
Abstract: Improving vaccination uptake is crucial for mitigating health risks by safeguarding vulnerable populations and boosting community resilience; however, despite social media's recognized potential as a tool for delivering vaccination interventions, there remains a lack of guidance on the design and development process. In response, we present a structured framework that integrates behavioural theory, human-centred design, and rigorous evaluation approaches. This presentation introduces the framework and assesses its practicality via a case study, developing a WeChat intervention aimed at enhancing influenza vaccine uptake among Chinese university students in the UK. Employing a three-phase natural experimental design using mixed methods, the study is structured as follows: Phase I entails a cross-sectional survey among the targeted population to understand the barriers and enablers; Phase II involves three focus groups to elicit user feedback, serving as evidence for designing a user-centred intervention; Phase III employs a quasi-experimental design with pre- and post-surveys to evaluate the intervention's efficacy.  The findings demonstrate social media's potential to enhance vaccination knowledge and attitudes while affirming the utility of the proposed framework in streamlining intervention design and offering insights adaptable to diverse contexts. However, further study is needed to test its usability and efficacy across varied intervention settings.

Presenting author(s): Rebekah Yore, UCL IRDR
Further author(s): Joanna Faure Walker
Abstract: We study the varying rates and complexity of household recovery through shelter and housing and changes in relative vulnerabilities during the emergency and transitional phase of recovery in the first few days, weeks and months, as well as after three years, following Typhoon Yolanda. Through the analysis of survey responses we find that the path through shelter and housing recovery varied with households following numerous pathways, spending different time periods in shelter and housing types, and moving back and forth between progression, vulnerability, life disruption and the re-establishment of a sense of normality. Furthermore, pre-existing housing and employment vulnerabilities prevailed in the short (less than three months) and medium terms (4 months to 3 years). Pre-existing housing vulnerability was associated with longer periods of unemployment, longer periods of time in transitional housing and poorer quality housing repairs over the short and medium terms. The changing relative vulnerability of households over these time periods appears related to the timing of cash and materials distribution, with increased waiting times for resources being experienced by those exhibiting higher relative vulnerability in the end. This all suggests that immediate and short-term post-disaster assistance and reconstruction policies can alter relative vulnerabilities and thus should be seen as opportunities for transformation and development.

Presenting author(s): Victoria Maynard, University College London
Abstract: Disaster recovery can be described as a process of decision-making and interaction between a variety of groups and institutions.  Decisions about shelter and settlements after disasters are critical to both the recovery and resilience of affected households and communities.  Delays in housing recovery can set back the broader social and economic recovery of affected households, while the reconstruction process can have significant positive or negative effects on longer-term risk reduction and resilience.  On the 8th of November 2013, typhoon Yolanda (international name Haiyan) devastated the Visayas region of the Philippines.  More than 6,000 people lost their lives and more than one million houses were damaged or destroyed.  This PhD research investigates decision-making by the Philippine government and international humanitarian organisations in the first eighteen months after the typhoon.  It also examines the effects of these decisions over the following decade.  A single exploratory case study approach is adopted drawing on participant-observation, semi-structured interviews, and secondary documentation.  The research was undertaken in partnership with Habitat for Humanity and the researcher directly supported Habitat for Humanity’s disaster response operations during the first three months of the response.

Presenting author(s): Yi-Chung Liu, National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction
Further author(s): H. R. Hsieh and S. Y. Liu
Abstract: Recent earthquake events in Taiwan have underscored the importance of ensuring the continuity of care homes’ operation during emergencies. Government entities typically mandate care homes to assess seismic risks, develop evacuation plans, and conduct regular drills to prepare for earthquakes. However, relying solely on a single-agency approach may be insufficient due to inherent limitations in care homes’ capabilities and the cascading effects of devastating earthquakes. Addressing these challenges requires shared responsibility and collaboration between public sectors and private care homes, particularly in the face of catastrophic events. This study utilizes a quantitative approach to assess seismic risk in care homes, focusing on a municipality perspective. By integrating exposure and sensitivity analyses, a facility-level aggregate risk matrix based on geoscientific data is employed to identify the most vulnerable areas across twelve municipalities in Taiwan. The findings from this analysis aid local authorities in prioritizing their emergency planning efforts by providing a comprehensive understanding of the attributable risks and the geographical distribution of high-risk institutions. Additionally, it facilitates collaboration among emergency services, healthcare system resource providers, and decision-making processes related to evacuation or shelter-in-place protocols.

Presenting author(s): Arizka Warganegara, Department of Government Studies, Lampung University, Indonesia
Abstract: Lampung province, is an example of the disaster-prone areas in Indonesia. South Lampung, in particular, is an area facing potential risks of three natural disasters, simultaneously: tsunami, earthquake and volcanic eruption. This research will make a model on the pre-disaster governance and tsunami preparedness that will involve three important groups – the local elite, religious leaders and adat or traditional community –. This research is important due to many research are more focus on the post rather than pre disaster governance in dealing with tsunami. A qualitative case study will be applied in this research, in which the local elite, religious leaders and customary community leaders will be selected based on purposive sampling methods, and elite interviews will be also conducted in this project. Two areas are selected for the case study: the Kalianda district, the capital city district of South Lampung regency; and the Rajabasa district, which is categorised as the nearest location and the one most impacted by the tsunami of 2018. This research will apply the collaborative governance theory by making two initial analysis. First, this research will identify the role of the local elite, religious leader and traditional community in dealing with the pre disaster and tsunami preparedness. Second, we create a model that can be used to develop collaborative works between the three groups to better deal with pre disaster and tsunami preparedness.

Presenting author(s): Mhari Gordon, UCL IRDR & WRC
Abstract: Disasters affect individuals and communities to different extents; due to social and cultural processes which can marginalise people. The UK is no exception to such, as it experiences different types of hazards, including flooding and extreme weather. Asylum seekers and refugees are identified as vulnerable and marginalised groups in the UK. Such individuals are subject to the country’s social, economic, and political policies and practices for migrants. Scholars have suggested that such policies and practices, compounded with experiences of racism, harassment, trauma, and other forms of marginalisation, can act as predefined limitations of how asylees and refugees can prepare, respond, and recover from natural hazards and/or disasters. It is important that everyone in the UK is included in risk and disaster prevention planning and response regardless of immigration status and nationality. To date, there remains a gap in an empirical-rich understanding of asylees’ and refugees’ experiences of natural hazards and disasters, the role of such asylum policies in negotiating such experiences, as well as how hazard warnings are (not) received and acted upon. This PhD study aims to explore such gaps through interviews and arts-based initiatives to understand individuals’ experiences of hazards and warnings, whilst seeking asylum in the UK.

Presenting author(s): Stone Bridge, Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences; University of Edinburgh
Further author(s):  LI DianDian
Abstract: Disaster politics, an emerging field within political science, has provided significant insights but often shifts focus away from traditional politics. Existing typologies in the field reflect scholars' views on its current and potential paths, yet they typically neglect long-term and politically oriented perspectives. This article introduces a new typology that is based on the division of responsibilities between state and society, along with the political consequences of disasters. We identify three tiers of disaster impact on the state: state building, regime determination, and governmental functionality. Our analysis shows that prevailing typologies tend to concentrate on immediate governance and policy responses, frequently missing the broader, long-term political implications. By extending our examination to late imperial China, a period with extensive disaster-related historical records, our study provides a deeper understanding of the Chinese disaster political tradition. Using this typology to assess China's historical responses to disasters highlights how contemporary disaster politics are a continuation of past practices, which vary significantly across different countries.

Presenting author(s): Pak Wan Major Pau, Institute of Local Government Studies, University of Birmingham
Abstract: Departing from the traditional categorization of disaster management, it can be further divided into disaster response, mitigation, preparation, and recovery. However, not only does current literature focus on the response stage, but they also examine their cases from a top-down or a collaborative perspective. This study aimed to explore the motivation, process, and results of disaster recovery from a bottom-up perspective. Two Taiwanese villages, which suffered from the 2009 Morakot Typhoon, are selected, and examined under the theories of network governance and social capital. These two cases were selected due to their particularities in their recovery process. Survivors focus on the revitalization of their livelihood and the preservation of their culture. Shortly after the typhoon, informal networks were observed to be established by villagers to address the gaps in the official policies. Through observation and interviews with the villagers who are part of these informal networks, this study would like to fill the following gaps: How do informal networks affect the outcome of disaster recovery?  This study would like to clarify the nature of informal networks, the relationship between informal networks and social capital, and in what situation would informal networks enhance or jeopardize the outcome of disaster recovery.

Presenting author(s): Krisna Puji Rahmayanti, International Development Department, School of Government, University of Birmingham
Abstract: Natural disasters represent a major challenge in Indonesia, where health system capacity remains problematic. Disaster response involves a wide array of government and non-government actors, and collaboration often becomes an issue. This study aims to analyse the nature of collaboration in the crucial disaster response. This study conducts a qualitative approach through 66 interviews and secondary document analysis. A case of disaster response was selected, and informants involved during this period were identified through purposive and snowball sampling. The key findings of this study are in addition to expected predetermined actors include three levels of government), two levels of local health facilities (provincial and district/city), local police, local military, and a few non-government organisations; this study identifies emergent actors. The result demonstrates the complexity of collaboration; not only are there too many actors who require collaboration but also various modes of collaboration. The variation of activities adopted by actors in collaboration implies variation in the level of involvement and differences in understanding the nature of collaboration. This study found a pattern of collaboration based on diverse characteristics of actors and diverse interactions in the collaboration process indicating that finding appropriate modes and actors represents a governance challenge.

Presenting author(s): Anuradha C. Senanayake, Global Disaster Resilience Centre, School of Applied Sciences, University of Huddersfield
Further author(s): Dilanthi Amaratunga and Richard Haigh
Abstract: ‘Disaster justice’, which considers how disasters enhance societal vulnerabilities, is an evolving concept. The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) asks for equitable and inclusive disaster management measures where Disaster Risk Governance (DRG) is recognised as one of four core priorities. Hence, this  Doctoral study investigates disaster justice's role within the DRG sphere. Disaster justice as a concept has mainly been explored within the context of the Global North. Hence, this study mainly explores this concept within the muti-hazard-prone Global South context using Sri Lanka as a case study. As a start, it was explored that disaster justice holds socioeconomic, environmental, spatial, legal, and political dimensions. Using these dimensions as conceptual guidance, the primary data collection was initiated, targeting the categories of DRR and justice experts, grassroots-level officials, and community members. One of the significant characteristics of justice is its context-specificness. Hence, three specific contexts from Sri Lanka were selected to collect data from the community, considering its vulnerability and hazard contexts. The authors are looking forward to discussing these interim findings at the conference. The study will eventually develop a framework to enhance justice within the DRG sphere of Sri Lanka to reduce people’s vulnerabilities within disaster contexts.

Presenting author(s): Supriya Akerkar, CENDEP, Oxford Brookes University
Abstract: Humanitarianism and Human Rights discourses and practices are often considered to be at odds with each-other in the context where persons are affected by natural hazards or conflicts.  Humanitarianism is projected as ‘apolitical’ so that aid actors can access the ‘humanitarian space’ to save lives and respond to the basic needs of those affected.  Human Rights is considered ‘political’ as it seeks to further the rights of the affected persons in such contexts. Yet the persisting exclusion of persons with disabilities in receiving humanitarian support in contexts affected by natural hazards and conflict highlight the need to challenge such dualistic Humanitarianism Vs Human Rights ways of thinking and working.  Building on the work of the disability movement, advocacy by the Organisations of Persons with Disabilities which challenges such dualistic thinking, and Nancy Fraser’s framing of social justice as redistribution, recognition, and representation, I will highlight the need for re-imagining of a response by aid actors by the changing of the ‘humanitarian habitus’ through which they operate and respond. This would also call for decolonial ways of working and undertaking of institutional reforms on their part.

Presenting author(s): Sushila Pandit, University of Kent
Abstract: The majority of policies are technocentric and top-down; climate policies may be no exception. Instead, the people should be involved in making policies. Thus, the main focus of this study is on how the governments of South Asia's mountainous countries have integrated a varied range of players into their climate plans and policies and how well those plans and policies take into account the local context. Plans and policies will be able to support the sustained implementation and development of communities that are resilient and transformational if they are inclusive and relevant to the setting and condition of the country. A content analysis with a codebook that was prepared for two different domains was the methodology that was utilised for this investigation. The first step is to understand the importance of adaptation provided to the country's plans and policies, in addition to the priority of traditional or local knowledge. The second step is to evaluate the involvement and inclusion of different stakeholders in the formulation of plans and policies. The countries for the study were Bhutan, India, Nepal, and Pakistan. According to the findings of my research, the policy framework and adaptation strategies do not yet include mountain-focused adaptation initiatives. It is still necessary to have a solid understanding of local knowledge and to incorporate it into plans and policies, despite the fact that it is gaining space on numerous platforms. Although the inclusion of women was given some consideration, other categories were not taken into account, which reinforced the idea that the contribution of diverse stakeholders is required in order to develop a strategy that is both robust and capable of being implemented.

Presenting author(s): Carrie Heitmeyer, Government Office for Science
Further author(s): Peter Bailey, Anuszka Maton and Rory Walshe
Abstract: In times of crisis and emergencies, actors in Government need scientific evidence and advice. These actors – politicians, officials and senior scientific advisors within government– have in recent years recognised the importance of social and behavioural sciences within scientific advice systems and practices. In this paper we explore the challenges, opportunities and lessons learned from recent crisis and emergencies where social and behavioural science has been mobilised. We draw upon recent case studies such as Covid-19, floods and drought. We are writing from the multiple perspectives of participants in such official scientific advice systems, professional social scientists with our own expertise and careers in Sociology, Geography and Anthropology, and observers of public and policy sociology (Burawoy 2006) in action. We reflect upon the position of the social sciences with respect to natural sciences and medicine in official scientific advice and the commonalities and tensions between social science disciplines in such official settings. We finish with a review of the challenges of mobilising sociology and anthropology in such contexts but, more importantly, the many opportunities for our disciplines to contribute at times of crisis.

Presenting author(s): Chenbo Wang, University College London
Further author(s):  Fabrizio Nocera, Gemma Cremen, Carmine Galasso, Vibek Manandhar, Prayash Malla 
Abstract: Disaster impact metrics (DIMs) are key outputs of natural-hazard risk models/assessments that provide a tangible way of communicating risk. However, typical DIMs are limited in that they tend to capture only direct damage/economic losses, be specifically designed for developed countries, account for just one snapshot in time, and be characterised for individual assets rather than systems. These shortcomings somewhat stem from a lack of understanding around the bespoke requirements of different stakeholders concerning disaster impact/risk assessments. Addressing these limitations, we propose a toolbox for characterising context-specific DIMs that capture relevant stakeholder priorities/requirements. The toolbox includes: (1) a comprehensive, holistic pool of DIMs developed from a literature review and a conceptual representation of societal dependencies; and (2) a stakeholder-centred framework for facilitating the appropriate selection of DIMs from this pool. We demonstrate the framework for Kathmandu, Nepal, revealing that the relative importance of a given disaster impact can change for different stakeholder groups and spatio-temporal dimensions. Impacts related to direct damage/economic losses are not the most crucial concern of the considered stakeholders. Higher priority is placed on characterising accessibility impacts around utilities and social networks, for instance. This work contributes to advancing the usefulness of natural-hazard risk assessments for important decision-making.

Presenting author(s): Max Van Wyk de Vries, University of Cambridge
Abstract: Landslides are one of the most damaging disasters and have killed tens of thousands of people over the 21st century. Slow-moving landslides (i.e., those with surface velocities on the order of 0.01-10 m/yr) can be highly disruptive, but are often overlooked in hazard inventories due to their subtle surface signatures and slow movement. Here, we discuss an approach to automatically map slow-moving landslides using feature tracking of freely- and globally-available Sentinel-2 optical satellite imagery. We are able to detect slow-moving landslides in complex environments using 10-m resolution globally available satellite imagery, all without any manual intervention. Taken together, this means that our workflow can be applied to any region on Earth, regardless of the availability of prior information. Improved mapping of the spatial distribution and surface displacement rates of slow-moving landslides will improve our understanding of their role in the multi-hazard chain and can direct detailed investigations into their dynamics. We will discuss the implications of this through several multi-hazard case studies.

Presenting author(s): Nelum Bopitiyegedara, Department of Town and Country Planning, Faculty of Architecture, University of Moratuwa, Moratuwa, Sri Lanka
Further author(s): M.T.O.V. Peiris, Nilantha Randeniya
Abstract: Over the past three decades, floods have left a profound and intricate impact, and complexity presents challenges in addressing them effectively. A study conducted in the Kelani River Basin aims to explore the correlation between flood-induced damages and the quality of social infrastructure services, shedding light on the significance of floods within communities and answering how actual flood damage influences public perception of damage levels in flood risk zones of Colombo City, Sri Lanka. In May 2023, a survey of 100 residents and physical observations were conducted to assess flood response and recovery patterns. SPSS software was utilized to analyze socioeconomic and demographic factors in relation to flood recovery time. Multicollinearity testing was performed in a Python environment, and selected pertinent features from the dataset were subsequently analyzed using Ordinal Logistic Regression (OLR). Covariance analysis identified significant associations among 12 parameters for OLR analysis. The results show strong correlations among housing conditions, economic impacts, infrastructure damage, and flood relief services. Notably, residents facing financial losses and energy disruptions during floods experienced prolonged recovery times. The results are helpful for urban planners and disaster management agencies to prepare and develop community-based recovery strategies while effectively mobilizing limited resources.

Presenting author(s): Leslie Mabon, The Open University
Abstract: Awareness of the potential of urban trees, parks and other green spaces to reduce risk from extreme hot weather in cities is growing. Urban greening interventions that are planned from the top down without community involvement might miss the factors that make residents vulnerable to heat in the first place. Yet, getting residents involved in discussions about enhancing heat resilience through neighbourhood greening can be challenging if the neighbourhood is over-researched, or if there is a history of superficial or ineffective consultation. In response, we reflect on a collaborative community research process developed in two neighbourhoods in Glasgow, in which we engaged seven community researchers in developing a research programme about their neighbourhood’s relationship with heat and greenspace. As well as key findings from the community research, we share several insights on effective collaborative research for heat resilience: (a) striking a balance between wanting to leave questions and outcomes open for participants versus the expectation of having pre-determined outcomes in mind; (b) the time commitment and ‘after hours’ work necessary to develop a community research agenda and train researchers;  and (c) the importance of strategies to maintain a long-term legacy beyond the timespan of a funded project.

Presenting author(s): Johanna Nalau, Cities Research Institute, School of Environment and Science, Griffith University
Further author(s): Rebecca McNaught, University of Sydney
Abstract: Collaborative processes sit at the heart of effective and just climate adaptation and disaster risk reduction. While these processes are often heralded as key to effective outcomes, making sure that diverse voices are heard and present is often a challenge. This presentation presents research from two recent papers that both provide insights on how to do this better. The first example looks at future visioning processes in climate adaptation with the focus on the who, what and how: who is being engaged in future visioning exercises, how they are being engaged, and what outcomes, both intended and unintended, result from these engagement processes. The second example presents research from the Northern Rivers region in Australia that faced unprecedented floods in 2022, triggering a variety of collaborative processes to manage the impacts of the disaster. This specifically focuses on understanding the multiple framings of ‘well-being’ and what different actors deem as ‘collaborative governance’ in a highly volatile and unpredictable recovery process. Both of these examples show how ‘who is in the room’ matters and provide novel insights in how collaboration and engagement can drive community resilience and effective adaptation forward.

Presenting author(s): Jonathan Chambers, British Geological Survey
Further author(s): Paul Wilkinson, Phil Meldrum, Harry Harrison, Ben Dashwood, Adrian White, Oliver Kuras, Russell Swift, Alessandro Novellino
Abstract: Slope failure is already a major socio-economic problem in the UK and internationally, which is being further exacerbated by climate change and land-use pressures. Emerging observing technologies (e.g. electrical resistivity tomography, distributed acoustic/strain sensing – DAS/DSS, interferometric synthetic-aperture radar - InSAR) are transforming our ability to determine slope condition and track moisture driven landslide processes. Here we consider recent advances in the combined use of these non-invasive observing technologies and derived models and information to, for the first time, directly inform 4D geomechanical slope stability models. In doing so, near-real-time decision support and landslide early warning based on volumetric subsurface monitoring is close to being realised.