UCL Warning Database

Overview of the project

The UCL WRC Database builds on the world’s first global warnings database developed under the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) as part of their World Weather Research Programme, HI-Weather Project developed a database of high impact weather warning case studies from around the globe that facilitates scientists and practitioners to review, analyse and learn from previous experience through the lens of the value chain. That project ended in 2024, but the WRC has made this database available by making it publicly accessible and is currently expanding its scope to cover a wider range of hazards, such as geological hazards and enabling the aspects of multi-hazard warnings to be explored.  

The HI-Weather Project Database

Effective warnings of weather-related hazards result from the successful interaction of many people and organisations, each contributing their specific capability and knowledge, from weather and hazard forecast to impacts, warning communication and decision making. The WMO developed the warning value chain as a a useful approach to understand the different relationships, processes, inputs, contributions, outcomes, and operational contexts of each stakeholder in the ‘warning chain’. The warning value chain can be represented as a sequence or network of different disciplines reprocessing information from previous segments and adding additional, unique information, as in the figure below:

The Project reviewed value chain approaches used to describe and understand weather, warning and climate services and developed a framework and guidance on how they can be best applied. 

The Warning Value Chain Database collected case study information on the end-to-end production and flow of information and decision making along the warning value chain during natural hazard events. It is designed to record information about high impact weather events.

The WRC Database

Building on the excellent work on the Warning Value Chain Database, the WRC database aims to investigate detailed warning processes from significant events to enhance warnings of the future and address some of the key research and practitioner questions in the field. This will also help address Target G of the UNDRR Sendai Framework to ‘Substantially increase the availability of and access to multi-hazard early warning systems and disaster risk information and assessments to the people by 2030’. The aim is to feed vital data into the next Disaster Risk Reduction framework from 2030, and can help support develop appropriate indicators for the 'Early Warnings for All' initiative.

The objectives for the new database include:

• Build a global database of hazardous events with rich information covering the many components of the warning process
• Enable case studies and cross-cutting analysis of warnings, from simple to complex, to understand effective practices
• Support the value cycle of review and learning from past events to identify improvements that would enhance future warnings
• Expanding on the current high-impact events database beyond weather events to encompass geological (e.g. earthquakes, volcanoes, landslides) and multi-hazard events
• Explore the potential for AI to analyse rich qualitative data sets to explore warnings trends globally

Download a summary poster of the WRC Database project: 'Building informed warning knowledge exchange: Developing the world’s first warning value chain database'.

Structure of the Database

Each case study in the database follows a structured format that captures information about:

• Essential Facts: Brief facts about the event, such as what happened, when, where, main impacts and overall responses.
• Supplementary Information: Detailed information about different stages in the warning value chain, including hazard sources, hazards, impacts, warning communication, responses, and analysis of the warning process.
• Subjective Assessment: Rating of the effectiveness of individual elements of the end-to-end warning chain, and its overall effectiveness.

Next Steps

Currently the database is still being developed, details on the process of data collection are below but more information will be forthcoming:

• Data is collected via a Microsoft Form. An accompanying guide provides information and examples to help users fill out the questionnaire
• A Rapid Assessment Template (Microsoft Form) is also available for collecting and displaying data for warning case studies when there is not time to complete a full questionnaire and storing perishable and/or key information until a time comes to complete a full questionnaire 

The launch event is expected to be in July, 2025

We would like to thank the WMO and the HI-Weather team who have engaged in the project with us for several years and we are looking forward to enhancing the warnings database for all.