Professor Paul Northrop

* @ucl.ac.uk

Biographical Details

Paul has worked at University College London since 2005. He was awarded a PhD in Statistics from University College London in 1996 for a thesis on the spatial-temporal modelling of rainfall processes and extended this work as a NERC postdoctoral research fellow at University College London and Imperial College. He was a Departmental Lecturer in the Department of Statistics at the University of Oxford from 1999 to 2005.
 

Research Interests

Development and application of stochastic models for spatial-temporal rainfall processes; inference for complex stochastic processes; modelling of extreme values; applications in hydrology and climatology.
 

Selected publications

• Grindle, N., Anyadi, S., Cain, A., McClelland, A., Northrop, P., Payne, R., & Wingate Gray, S. (2021). Re-evaluating Passive Research Involvement in the Undergraduate Curriculum. Scholarship and Practice of Undergraduate Research.
• Grindle, N., Jones, E., & Northrop, P. (2020).  `Harder things will stretch you further’: helping first-year undergraduate students meaningfully engage with recent research papers in probability and statistics. Teaching Mathematics and its Applications: An International Journal of the IMA. doi:10.1093/teamat/hraa001
• Crawley, J., Biddulph, P., Northrop, P. J., Wingfield, J., Oreszczyn, T., & Elwell, C. (2019). Quantifying the Measurement Error on England and Wales EPC Ratings. Energies, 12 (18), 3523. doi:10.3390/en12183523
• Northrop, P. J., Attalides, N. and Jonathan, P. (2017) Cross-validatory extreme value threshold selection and uncertainty with application to ocean storm severity. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics), 66(1), 93-120, doi: 10.1111/rssc.12159
• Northrop, P. J., Jonathan, P. and Randell, D. (2016) Threshold Modeling of Nonstationary Extremes. In D. K. Dey and J. Yan (Eds.) Extreme Value Modeling and Risk Analysis: Methods and Applications, Chapman and Hall / CRC, 87-108.
• Northrop, P. J. and Attalides, N. (2016) Posterior propriety in Bayesian extreme value analyses using reference priors. Statistica Sinica, 26(2), 721-743, doi: 10.5705/ss.2014.034.
• Northrop, P. J. (2015) An efficient semiparametric maxima estimator of the extremal index. Extremes, 18(4), 585-603, doi: 10.1007/s10687-015-0221-5. Free-to-read online!
• Kaczmarska, J. M., Isham, V. S. and Northrop, P. J. (2015) Local generalised method of moments: an application to point process-based rainfall models. Environmetrics, 26(4), 312—325, doi: 10.1002/env.2338.
• Northrop, P. J. and Coleman, C. L. (2014) Improved threshold diagnostic plots for extreme value analyses. Extremes, 17(2), 289—303, doi: 10.1007/s10687-014-0183-z. Free-to-read online!
• Northrop, P. J. and Chandler, R. E. (2014) Quantifying sources of uncertainty in projections of future climate. Journal of Climate, 27(23), 8793—8808, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00265.1.