“By studying how the ground is cracking and moving at Campi Flegrei, we think it may be approaching a critical stage where further unrest will increase the possibility of an eruption and it’s imperative that the authorities are prepared for this,” explained Dr Christopher Kilburn, Director of the UCL Hazard Centre.
“We don’t know when or if this long-term unrest will lead to an eruption but Campi Flegrei is following a trend we’ve seen when testing our model on other volcanoes, including Rabaul in Papua New Guinea, El Hierro in the Canary Islands, and Soufriere Hills on Montserrat in the Caribbean. We are getting closer to forecasting eruptions at volcanoes that have been quiet for generations by using detailed physical models to understand how the preceding unrest develops.”
The study has been published in the Nature Communications. Read the full story
Related Links:
- Kilburn, C.R.J., De Natale, G. and Carlino, S. (2017) ‘Progressive approach to eruption at Campi Flegrei caldera in southern Italy’ Nature Communications 2017: 8: 15312 DOI:10.1038/ncomms15312
- Dr Christopher Kilburn’s academic profile
- Follow UCL Hazard Centre on Twitter @UCLHC
- Testing the low-cost sensors at Campi Flegrei in Italy.