The Future of Forecasts and Warnings with Dr Sally Potter
The UCL Warning Research Centre invites you to join us for "The Future of Forecasts and Warnings with Dr Sally Potter"
The Future of Forecasts and Warnings with Dr Sally Potter
10 May 2023, 14:00 – 15:30
The communication of hazard-related information has advanced remarkably over the past few decades. Instead of focussing only on the science and monitoring indicators as the subject of messages, produced in a silo by a science agency, we are now fostering partnerships and communicating meaningful information with stakeholders to the public.
Recent events in New Zealand have taught us a lot about how to effectively communicate geohazard information. During Cyclone Gabrielle in February 2023, GNS Science trialled the communication of rainfall-induced landslide forecasts, as well as impact forecasts for that hazard to stakeholders. We have also communicated unrest and eruption forecasts for several volcanoes, including Taupō caldera volcano, which is currently in unrest.
The communication of impact-based warnings is becoming increasingly popular and encouraged, particularly in the world of weather warnings. What are these, and how effective are they in prompting a behavioural response? What are the biggest challenges we need to address, to progress impact-based warnings?
The environment is changing due to global warming, and people’s experiences with the COVID-19 pandemic have demonstrated different appetites for risk. There is exponential growth in technology and access to social media, allowing information sharing to reach unprecedented levels. In this evolving context, we must look to the future and forecast how and what we will need to communicate 5, 10, 20 years from now. In this way we can design our science and monitoring capabilities, as well as our partnerships and priorities, to meet the needs of society.
Discussion:
There will be a panel discussion with a Q&A session. Distinguished guests confirmed are:
- Dr. Linda Speight - University of Oxford
- Dr Mirianna Budimir - Practical Action
- Dr Anawat Suppasri - Tohoku University
The Event:
The presentation and discussion will take place on UCL’s campus, however the event will be hybrid, so do select an online-only ticket at checkout to join us, wherever you are in the world!
Agenda:
14:00-14:05 Welcome and Introduction
14:05-15:00 Presentation by Dr Sally Potter
15:00-15:45 Discussion with Q&A
Dr Sally Potter
Dr Sally Potter is a Senior Social Scientist at GNS Science in New Zealand. She conducts research on the effectiveness of warnings and forecasts across all hazards, including impact-based warnings, risk perceptions and behavioural responses. She applies the results to improve communication products and science advice. Sally is co-chair of the World Meteorological Organization's WWRP High Impact Weather project. Sally is co-located with Emergency Management Bay of Plenty in Tauranga, New Zealand.
Panellist
Dr Mirianna Budimir is the Senior Climate and Resilience Expert at Practical Action. Her work at Practical Action focuses on disaster risk reduction, early warning systems, gender, equity and social inequalities, science and risk communication, forecast-based early action and decision making, and international development. She works closely with a range of stakeholders across Latin America, Africa and Asia, and at the global level to proactively advocate for evidence-based people-centred early warning systems that are designed with and for the most vulnerable in developing countries.
Panellist
Anawat is an Associate Professor at Tohoku University's International Research Institute of Disaster Science. His interests are in a wide range of research activities based on engineering perspectives such as hazard/risk assessment, disaster countermeasures and disaster awareness from both domestic and international tsunami disasters.
Panellist
Dr Linda Speight is a lecturer in physical geography at the University of Oxford. Her research seeks to develop early warning systems to support risk informed decision making, particularly for flooding. Linda works on global flood forecasting, surface water flood forecasting, ensemble forecasts, impact-based forecasts, risk communication, decision making and climate resilience.
Further information
Ticketing
Half Ticketed/Half Open
Cost
Free
Open to
All
Availability
Yes