Danielle Charlton

“Campi Flegrei is one of the most dangerous volcanoes in Europe, we can help manage the hazard and risk by understanding different audiences and designing new maps”

PhD project title:

The threat of volcanic activity to major urban centres.

Danielle Charlton

Project description:

Campi Flegrei caldera located close to the City of Naples, Italy, has shown progressive unrest since 1969. This is the first unrest for more than 400 years and mimics behaviour in the decades approaching the last eruption in 1538. There is thus an elevated concern that this caldera has entered a new pre-eruptive phase. Using Campi Flegrei and the City of Naples as a case study, we will develop a generalized methodology or evaluating the impact of explosive volcanic activity on densely­ populated districts. The results will be presented in formats compatible with standard GIS, so that they can readily be incorporated into existing programmes for civil protection agencies and the insurance sector. A key philosophy is that the results must have an immediate practical value in assisting decision makers to select the most appropriate response to a volcanic emergency.

The study to date has investigated the reasons for contradictions in current hazard maps. The maps are based on assumptions about the most likely location, size and style of the next eruption. All three assumptions contain uncertainties, which can generate significant differences in the final maps.

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