Hernán E. Morales, Associate Professor Globe Institute, University of Copenhagen

UGI Seminar
Wednesday, 29 January @ 3pm
Gavin de Beer Lecture Theatre, Anatomy Building (map)

Temporal Genomics, Extinction Risk, and Recovery Potential

The escalating biodiversity crisis threatens species with the loss of essential genomic diversity required for survival and adaptation to future environmental changes. As populations decline, they incur a “genetic drift debt,” leading to genomic erosion. Of particular concern is the persistence of genetic diversity loss even after demographic recovery, representing a hidden and long-term evolutionary cost.

To investigate these processes, we integrate paleogenomics, quantitative genomics, and modeling approaches. Focusing on endangered bird species with diverse population decline trajectories, we compare whole genomes from pre-decline (100+ year-old museum specimens) and post-decline (modern) populations. By analyzing deleterious, functional, and neutral genomic variation, we evaluate how population declines and conservation efforts influence the dynamics of genomic erosion. Using forward simulations, we explore how demographic history, severity of decline, connectivity, and management strategies shape extinction risk and recovery potential.

Our research advances understanding of genomic erosion dynamics, providing tools to predict future trajectories and develop conservation strategies that mitigate biodiversity loss and enhance species’ long-term resilience.