International Crime Science Conference

Nick Ross Chairing

16 July 2014, British Library, LONDON

This year the 8th International Crime Science Conference will focus on “What Works in Crime and Security – Practical Interventions from the Innovation Horizon". The conference will take place on 16th July 2014 at the British Library in London. The International Crime Science Conference will showcase leading research that is helping to tackle threats to our society. The conference in particular will focus on the dynamic between innovation in responses to crime and security issues and the need for such measures to be quickly and effectively brought into the practical domain. Topics covered will include Cyber Security; Forensics; Ballistics & Gun Crime; Access Control; Knife Crime & Drug Trafficking. 

The conference, which has enjoyed consistently high approval ratings from delegates over the past seven years, brings together senior security practitioners, policy-makers, technologists, and academics, all developing the latest techniques and technologies for preventing crime and increasing security. The conference is supported by the UK Home Office Centre for Applied Science and Technology (CAST) and the new What Works Centre for Crime Reduction at the College of Policing.

(Please note: talk/speaker details will be updated here as they are confirmed)

9.30 Welcome

9.40 Opening Plenary

Chair: Professor Gloria Laycock OBE, UCL Security and Crime Science

How to engage with evidence: the College of Policing and its What Works Centre for Crime Reduction (Rachel Tuffin OBE, Director, Knowledge, Research and Education, College of Policing)

What works in crime and security: aspirations for the evidence base (Professor Kate Bowers, UCL Security and Crime Science)

10.40 Coffee and Student Posters

11.00 Parallel Sessions

Auditorium: Geographic Profiling

Chair: Professor Shane Johnson, UCL Security and Crime Science

Geographic profiling: from criminology to biology and back (Dr Steve Le Comber, Queen Mary University of London)

Investigating Distance to Attack Amongst a Sample of Terrorist Offenders (Dr Paul Gill, UCL Security and Crime Science)

Bronte Room: Drug Trafficking

Chair: Ireneos Drakos, UCL Security and Crime Science

The Forensic Early Warning System  - What and Where are the New Psychoactive Substances in the UK? (Sheila Hardwick, Home Office Centre for Applied Science and Technology CAST)

“Reducing drug-related violence in the night-time economy through deterrence” (Stephen Moore, Isis Risk Management Limited)

Elliot Room: Forensics session, Trace Evidence Dynamics

Chairs: Dr Ruth Morgan and Dr James French

Mobilising Locard: Trace Evidence in a Military Context (Charlotte Higgin-Botham, Cranfield University)

Automated trace analysis using Scanning Electron Microscope and EDS (Dr Matthew Hiscock, Oxford Instruments)

11.45 Parallel Sessions

Auditorium: Evidence-based policing workshop

Making Evidence Matter: Generating and translating evidence synthesis for decision-makers and practitioners (Julia Morris, College of Policing)

Online tool workshop - the second half of this session will be an interactive audience poll which will allow you to help shape the new on-line tool currently being developed by the College of Policing.  This tool will ultimately allow stakeholders to access the existing review evidence in crime reduction.

Bronte Room: Firearms Crime

Chair: Kate Gibson, UCL Security and Crime Science

The "Sub-Prime, Junk Gun" Economy and its enforcement and policy consequences (Professor Peter Squires, University of Brighton)

NABIS: Combining Forensic Science & Intelligence (Martin Parker, National Ballistics Intelligence Service NABIS)

Corroded Firearms: The Non-Destructive Approach (Dr Rachel Bolton-King, Staffordshire University)

Elliot Room: Forensics session 2, Interpretation

Chairs: Dr Ruth Morgan and Dr Georgina Meakin

Bayesian networks for forensic reasoning (Dr Dave Lagnado, UCL Psychology)

Forensic Touch, a glove that does more than protect (Tony Coombes, Forensic Touch Glove)

Forensic Genetics: Beyond Human Identification (Dr Graham Williams, University of Huddersfield)

12.45 – 13.45 Lunch and Student Posters
13.00 - 13.40 Elliot Room: Roundtable session - 'What is the most important current problem in transport crime?'
This session is open to everyone. Do bring your lunch plates along with you.

13.45 Afternoon Plenary

Chair: Professor Richard Wortley, UCL Security and Crime Science

Crime Science; is it just of academic interest? How to reach a new audience (Nicholas Alston CBE, Police and Crime Commissioner for Essex)

14.30 Coffee and Student Posters

15.00 Parallel Sessions

Auditorium: Policing and Citizenship

Chair: Professor Tao Cheng, UCL Civil, Environmental and Geomatic Engineering

Using simulation to explore the processes of police tasking and decision-making (Sarah Wise, UCL Civil, Environmental and Geomatic Engineering)

Street network effects in crime and policing (Toby Davies, UCL Security and Crime Science

Self-exciting point process models of spatiotemporal crime patterns (Gabriel Rosser, UCL Civil, Environmental and Geomatic Engineering)

Bronte Room: Cyber Crime

Chair: Dr Kacper Gradon, Centre for Forensic Sciences, University of Warsaw

The changing architecture of the Internet : Challenges for 21st Century Law Enforcement To Evidence Criminality (Jonathan Flaherty, National Crime Agency)

Modelling Cyber Attacks with Game Theory (Professor Carlos Cid, Director, Centre for Doctoral Training in Cyber Security, Royal Holloway, University of London)

The human element of insider threat (Professor Monica Whitty, University of Leicester)

Elliot Room: Transport Crime

Chair: Steve Burton, Transport for London 

Investigating Moving Hot Spots on Public Transport: A case study of pick-pocketing and associated risk factors on the London Underground (Dr Andrew Newton, University of Huddersfield)

A Direct Test of “Local Deterrence” and “Deterrence Radiation”: Lessons from the London Bus Experiment (Dr Barak Ariel, University of Cambridge & Inspector Varley, Metropolitan Police, Operation Menas)

Space-time dynamics of crime in underground stations: The case of Stockholm, Sweden (Dr Vania Ceccato, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden)

16.00 Break

16.15 Panel Discussion: What really works in Crime Reduction … and what absolutely doesn’t work?

Chair: Nick Ross, broadcaster

Nick Dove, Law Enforcement Director, Wynyard Group

Professor Gloria Laycock OBE, UCL Security and Crime Science

Nicholas Alston CBE, Police and Crime Commissioner for Essex

Stephen Moore, Isis Risk Management Limited

17.00 Drinks and networking

Registration for the International Crime Science conference can be accessed via this link.

Registration costs

  • Early bird rate:   £199
  • Concessionary Rate (Probationary police officers, UCL and non-UCL students and UCL Staff only):   £99

To book please click on this link.

Speakers and abstracts

Professor Gloria Laycock, OBE
Gloria Laycock


Gloria Laycock graduated in psychology from University College London in 1968 and completed her PhD at UCL in 1975. She worked in the Home Office for over thirty years of which almost twenty years were spent on research and development in the policing and crime prevention fields. She has extensive research experience in the UK and has acted as a consultant on policing and crime prevention in North America, Australia, New Zealand, Israel, South Africa, Europe and the Middle East.

In 1999 she was awarded an International Visiting Fellowship by the United States Department of Justice based in Washington DC. She returned to the UK in April 2001 from a four-month consultancy at the Australian Institute of Criminology in Canberra to become Founding Director of the UCL Jill Dando Institute of Crime Science. In 2010 she took special leave from UCL to establish the Community Policing and Police Science Institute in Abu Dhabi, UAE. She has now returned to UCL as Professor of Crime Science and is Director of the Commissioned Partnership Research Consortium supporting the What Works Centre for Crime Reduction.

She was awarded an OBE in the Queen’s Birthday Honours 2008 for services to crime policy.

Rachel Tuffin, OBE


Rachel previously led knowledge and research teams in the Home Office and National Policing Improvement Agency, and began her career as a researcher in the University of East London in 1995. She has published studies on issues ranging from handling racist incidents and race hate on the internet, to neighbourhood policing, police leadership, recruitment and career progression of minority ethnic police officers, and flexible working practices.

She has been seconded to several independent and government police reviews and was a member of the first Home Office task force sent to Macedonia to co-ordinate the evacuation of refugees from Kosovo. Prior to 1995, she became fluent in French working as a trainer, interpreter and course director in Northern France. She was awarded her OBE in 2013 for services to policing, specifically championing evidence-based policing.


How to engage with evidence: the College of Policing and its What Works Centre for Crime Reduction


The College of Policing hosts the What Works Centre for Crime Reduction, whose mission is to get evidence used in decision-making. With the Economic and Social Research Council, the College is co-funding an academic consortium led by UCL to carry out a comprehensive programme, starting with work to identify all the existing reviews of the crime reduction evidence, and rate and label them for quality and content. This presentation will set out how the College is using an evidence-based approach to identify and exploit the incentives and levers in its grasp to make research evidence and science part of practitioners’ professional expertise.

Professor Kate Bowers


Kate Bowers is a Professor in Security and Crime Science at the UCL Department of Security and Crime Science. Kate has worked in the field of crime science for 20 years, with research interests focusing on the use of quantitative methods in crime analysis and crime prevention. She has published 75 papers and book chapters in criminology and in journals such as Criminology, the Journal of Quantitative Criminology and the Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency. She has guest edited a special issue of Crime Prevention Studies and co-edited a book on Crime Mapping. She serves on a number of journal editorial boards, and she has number of external appointments such as expert reviewer for a project run by the US Office of the Assistant Attorney General. Her work has been funded by grants from the Home Office, the US Department of Justice the Police, the Department for Education and Skills, and UK research councils such as the ESRC and AHRC. She is Co-Investigator on a EPSRC grant for £1.4m on Crime Policing and Citizenship. She is also a Co-Investigator on the ESRC funded What Works Centre for Crime Reduction initiative run in collaboration with the College of Policing.


What works in crime and security: aspirations for the evidence base


Policy-makers and practitioners are faced with a torrent of ‘evidence’ on which they might draw to base their decisions. Systematic reviews have emerged as a means for summarizing what can and cannot confidently be concluded from existing evaluation studies. Recent research actioned through the What Works in Crime Reduction Centre collaboration proposes a set of criteria against which the findings of such reviews can be assessed in terms of the extent and quality of the evidence available. They inform an ‘EMMIE’ scoring system referring to a) Effect direction and size (as stressed in systematic reviews), b) Mechanism/s or mediator/s activated (how does and intervention work), c) Moderators or contexts necessary for the activation of the mechanism/s or mediator/s (where, when of for whom does an intervention work), d) Implementation conditions that support or obstruct the delivery of the program, policy, treatment or intervention, and e) Economic assessment of what is delivered. Criteria b-e speak to needs that have been highlighted for at least a quarter of a century, but have so far been under-emphasized. Their addition in EMMIE is intended to facilitate decision-making that is better informed by what the available evidence says about what, works, why it works, for whom it works and at what cost.

Professor Shane Johnson
Shane Johnson


Shane D Johnson is a Professor at the Department of Security and Crime Science, University College London (UCL).  He is particularly interested in exploring how methods from other disciplines (e.g. complexity science) can inform understanding of crime and security issues, and the extent to which theories developed to explain everyday crimes can explain more extreme events such as riots, maritime piracy, poaching and insurgency.  His research has been sponsored by funders including the AHRC, ESRC, Home Office, UK police forces, and the British Academy.  He is currently a co-investigator on the £2.8M EPSRC funded project ENFOLD concerned with global dynamics, and the £3.2M ESRC/College of Policing funded What Works to reduce crime consortium. He has published over 80 papers within the fields of criminology and forensic psychology in journals including Criminology, the Journal of Quantitative Criminology, and the Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency.  He is Associate Editor of the Journal Legal and Criminological Psychology, and a member of the editorial board of the Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency.

Dr Steve Le Comber


Dr Steven Le Comber is a senior lecturer in the School of Biological and Chemical Sciences at Queen Mary, University of London. His research covers a wide range of subjects within evolutionary biology and ecology, including mathematical and computer models of molecular evolution and studies of spatial patterns. He has pioneered the introduction of geographic profiling – a statistical technique originally developed in criminology to prioritise large lists of suspects in cases of serial crime such as murder, rape and arson – to epidemiological data. A recent paper re-analysed Snow’s classic study of the 1854 London cholera outbreak, using 321 disease sites as input to evaluate the locations of 13 neighbourhood water pumps. The Broad Street pump (the outbreak’s source) ranked first, in the top 0.2% of the geoprofile. The same paper analysed cases of malaria in Cairo, Egypt, using 139 disease case locations to rank 59 mosquitogenic local water sources, seven of which tested positive for the vector Anopheles sergentii. GP ranked six of these seven sites in positions 1– 6, all in the top 2% of the geoprofile. More recently, his group has developed a version of GP based on a Dirichlet process mixture model that is adapted to large data sets and multiple sources and that outperforms other forms of GP.


Geographic profiling: from criminology to biology and back


Geographic profiling was developed in criminology to prioritise large lists of suspects in cases of serial crime such as murder and rape. It has recently been applied to biology, notably animal foraging (where it can be used to find animal nests or roosts using the locations of foraging sites as input), invasive species biology (using current locations to identify source populations) and epidemiology (identifying disease sources from the addresses of infected individuals). Here, I describe a novel form of GP based on a Dirichlet process mixture model that is designed to deal with large data sets and multiple sources, and show how it can be applied to biological and criminological data.

Dr Paul Gill
Paul Gill


Dr. Paul Gill is a lecturer in Security and Crime Science. Previous to joining UCL, Dr. Gill was a postdoctoral research fellow at the International Center for the Study of Terrorism at Pennsylvania State University. He has previously managed projects funded by the Office for Naval Research and the Department of Homeland Security. These projects focused upon various aspects of terrorist behavior including the nature of malevolent creativity, terrorist network structures, terrorist leaders and lone-actor terrorism.His doctoral research focused on the underlying individual and organizational motivations behind suicide bombing. This piece of research won the Jean Blondel Prize for the best Ph.D. thesis in Political Science in Europe for 2010. Dr. Gills holds a Ph.D. in Political Science, an M.A. in International Relations, and a BSocSc(Int) from the School of Politics and International Relations in University College Dublin, Ireland.


Investigating Distance to Attack Amongst a Sample of Terrorist Offenders


This paper applies insight from environmental criminology to the case of IED and shooting attacks conducted by Provisional Irish Republican Army members between 1970 and 1998. The aim is to measure (a) the typical 'distance to crime' (b) whether a distance-decay effect is noticeable and (c) whether there is a discernible difference in the distance travelled depending upon individual offender characteristics or aspects of how the offence was committed.

Ireneos Drakos



Ireneos Drakos is currently completing his PhD at UCL, where he is hosted by the Department of Security and Crime Science in collaboration with the Department of Medical Physics and Bioengineering. His particular research interest is in the development of scientific techniques to secure national borders from serious crime. His doctoral research project focuses on optimisation of illicit material detection, specifically drug identification, using X-ray diffraction – DILAX. Ireneos collaborates extensively with the Centre for Applied Science and Technology (CAST), formerly known as HOSDB, to which he contributed by successfully tailoring a prototype device and optimising it to its best configuration for the purposes of drug detection in parcels. He has received international training at the SPIE - Defence, Security and Sensing, where he took a course on Detection Theory. He has prepared posters for the International Crime Science Conference, Radiation Physics Open Day, Argonne National Laboratory and lectured on real-world research and the applications of Crime Science to tackling crime, based on scientific approaches.

Sheila Hardwick

With a joint degree in Physics and Chemistry and research experience in infrared physics, Sheila joined the fingerprint detection group of the Home Office in 1980.  Her contribution to both research and instrument design lead to fascinating developments and implementation of operational successful products such as the high intensity light fluorescence, superglue and the Fingerprint Manual which made real differences to crime detection.  More recently investigating techniques for the detection of drugs e.g. investigating the application of low angle X-ray to detecting contraband in importations or identifying drugs e.g. analysis for new psychoactive substances has been rewarding. 


The Forensic Early Warning System  - What and Where are the New Psychoactive Substances in the UK?


The arrival of an ever changing range of synthetic new psychoactive substances (NPS) (mis-labelled ‘legal highs’) challenged everyone - the users, analysts and law enforcement.  The Forensic Early Warning System (FEWS) is an initiative by the Home Office to build a highly effective forensic analysis capability to identify the drugs for casework.  Various collection plans will be described - aimed to identify NPS obtained from suppliers, importation and users.  The results feed into HO Drug Policy and the ACMD use the data in their considerations of the control of drugs under the Misuse of Drugs Act 1971. 

Stephen Moore


Stephen Moore joined Merseyside Police in 1979 after studying Philosophy, Politics and Economics at Oxford University. He is a Master of Arts, a fellow of the Winston Churchill Trust and a graduate of both the Public Sector Leaders Scheme and the Federal Bureau of Investigation National Academy.

Stephen retired from the Police Service in October 2009 as a Detective Chief Superintendent. During his police career, he worked for extended periods in the USA, Hong Kong, Southern Ireland, Holland and Australia. Since leaving Merseyside Police, Stephen has worked on a variety of multi-agency crime reduction initiatives within the public sector and has developed a successful security and community safety consultancy. To support his continuing professional development, Stephen is pursuing a PhD qualification through the Jill Dando Institute of Crime Science, University College London. His research interests revolve around the use of focused deterrence techniques to reduce crime.


“Reducing drug-related violence in the night-time economy through deterrence”


The primary role of Robert Peel’s new police force for London in 1829 was intended to be prevention. Success was to be measured through the absence of crime and not the response to crimes already committed. Something went wrong and responding became the order of the day. Mention crime prevention and most people think of locks, burglar alarms and closed circuit television, but what about other methods? This presentation will describe an award winning deterrence strategy used to reduce drug-related violence in the context of a night-time economy of licensed premises and fast food outlets.

Dr Ruth Morgan


Ruth joined UCL in 2007 having completed a D.Phil in Forensic Geoscience at the University of Oxford. Her research is focussed around the role of physical evidence in the detection of crime.  Current research interests include establishing the evidence dynamics, transfer and persistence of geoforensic materials (soil, sediment, pollen etc.), and research that contributes to the production of guidelines for the practice of forensic geoscience. Recent work has concentrated on developing forensic applications of Scanning Electron Microscopy in the analysis of quartz grain surface textures.  Her research has been presented at a number of international conferences and appeared in New Scientist and the press. 

Ruth is the Director of the UCL Centre for the Forensic Sciences.  The Centre seeks to facilitate a network of UCL academics from a wide range of different disciplines and departments to enable a strategic and multidisciplinary research programme in collaboration with external partners and forensic science stakeholders.

She is a member of a number of committees including the London Geological Society Forensic Geoscience Group, the UK Forensic Science Education Group and a member of the Advisory Board of Inside Justice. She is also a reviewer for forensic geoscience submissions for a number of internationally peer reviewed journals.

Current collaborators include Dr Lewis Griffin (UCL Computer Science), Dr Peter Bull (University of Oxford), Dr Melanie Webb (University of Surrey), Dr James Robertson (University of Canberra), Dr Lorna Dawson (Macaulay Institute), Dr James Riding (British Geological Survey).

Charlotte Higgin-Botham and Karl Harrison
Charlotte Higgin-BothamKarl Harrison


Charlotte is an MSc student in Forensic Investigation at Cranfield University studying a range of disciplines. Following an undergraduate background in Law from Sheffield University, specialising in criminal and evidentiary law, Charlotte has concentrated on the integration between forensic practice and legal process from an international and military perspective; a field of study she hopes to continue at doctoral level.

Dr Karl Harrison is a Lecturer in Forensic Archaeology at Cranfield University, and is actively engaged in casework. Karl is one of a small number of Forensic Archaeologists practicing in the UK, and has played a role in numerous recent high-profile murder cases. Among his research interests is the continued development of military forensic capability.


Mobilising Locard: Trace Evidence in a Military Context


The current climate, context and capability for military operations are changing. A continued move towards a more responsive posture to meet potential future conflicts is resulting in the Army undergoing a period of great change. Whilst the use of forensics is not new to the military, its use within operational situations has advanced through the proliferation of counterinsurgency operations. In modern operational theatres, the growth in the use of Improvised Explosive Devices as a means of asymmetric warfare has resulted in a rise in the utilisation of forensic intelligence to help inform upon a greater intelligence network. As yet however, little research has been conducted into how the use of forensics might best be adapted to these challenges. This paper seeks to outline this radical new context of use.

Dr Matthew Hiscock


Matt’s background is that of a geologist – he gained his undergraduate degree at the University of Bristol and has spent time working in the coal fields of Australia as a field geologist.  After spending two years in the mines he returned to the UK to study for a PhD at the University of Edinburgh in geochemistry.  During this time he acquired in depth nanoanalysis skills and assisted in running the SEM facility at the School of GeoSciences.  He joined Oxford Instruments in 2013 and now works as an applications specialist for NanoAnalysis Solutions.  He is involved in assisting the development of software which utilises Oxford Instrument’s hardware to solve industry specific problems.  Current examples of this are mineral liberation analysis, thin film analysis and gunshot residue analysis.  Matt’s role includes communicating with users on these products and training Oxford Instrument’s own people.


Automated trace analysis using Scanning Electron Microscope and EDS


Automated Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) and compositional (EDS) analysis has long been used to analyse traces of gunshot residue obtained from suspects’ hands and clothes. For gunshot residue analysis the sample is usually collected directly onto the SEM stub. Particles down to 0.2 micrometers in size are located rapidly in the electron image and there composition and provenance confirmed using EDS analysis in a fully automated procedure. Here we review how this method can be extended to other forms of trace analysis such as the analysis of soil stemming for example from a suspects shoes or small fragments of glass. Requirements for achieving highly accurate results on a variety sample will be outlined. In particular, data interpretation and methods for comparing data from different samples will be discussed.

Julia Morris


Making Evidence Matter: Generating and translating evidence synthesis for decision-makers and practitioners


The College of Policing is hosting the What Works Centre for Crime Reduction which has a central focus on ensuring evidence gets used in decision making. Co-funded by the ESRC and working together with our academic partners, the Centre is rating and ranking the existing review evidence in crime reduction. A key output will be an accessible, clearly labelled evidence base ranked by quality and content. For the first time practitioners will have access to the 'state of the evidence' and be able to understand 'what works' and 'what doesn't' at the click of a mouse. This session will explore the different ways the Centre is translating evidence for practitioners to support decision making - it will include a spotlight on the online tool. Participants will have an opportunity to hear about the range of outreach activity underway to encourage the use of evidence as well as having an opportunity to engage directly in the translation work by helping to shape the design of the online toolkit live in the session.

Dr James French

James joined UCL JDI Centre for the Forensic Sciences in November 2013 as a Research Fellow in Crime and Forensic Science. James completed his PhD in Forensic Science at UCL in 2013, having previously completed an MRes in Security Science at the Department of Security and Crime Science, UCL. Prior to this James graduated from The University of Oxford with a BA (Hons) in Geography. James’ principle research interests include trace physical evidence, evidence dynamics and the interpretation of forensic evidence, particularly the use of Bayesian Networks. James’s work is particularly focused on gunshot residue (GSR) and his PhD research concerned secondary and tertiary transfer transfers of GSR and the implications of these dynamics for the investigation of firearms offences. This research project also explored the interpretation of GSR evidence using Bayesian Networks. James continues to develop these areas of research and incorporate them within the teaching programmes at the Department, while developing new and existing collaborations with academia and industry to facilitate this. James has presented at a number of international conferences, including the 2012 International Symposium held by the Australian and New Zealand Forensic Science Society (ANZFSS).
Kate Gibson


Kate Gibson is a Doctoral student in the Department of Security and Crime Science at UCL. Current research uses data from the National Ballistics Intelligence Service (NABIS), focusing on internal firearms procurement networks in the United Kingdom, and offender motivations in firearm procurement. Recent conference papers include ‘The Impact of Weapon Availability on Offender Firearm Selection’ at the American Society of Criminology conference in Atlanta in November 2013. Kate currently teaches on the Crime Science and Countering Organised Crime and Terrorism MSc Courses.

Prior to academia, Kate worked as a Senior Researcher at the Matrix Knowledge Group, conducting research and evaluation projects for clients including the Home Office, Cabinet Office and the Ministry of Justice. Kate also has significant experience as an analyst, working for customers within Defence and Law Enforcement.

Kate has an MRes in Security Science from UCL, an MSc in Criminal Justice Policy from LSE, and a BA(hons) in European Studies and French from Durham University.

Professor Peter Squires


Peter Squires has been Professor of Criminology & Public Policy at the University of Brighton since 2005, but actively researching into 'firearms and crime' since the mid 1990s. In 2000 he published Gun Culture or Gun Control? (Routledge, 2000) an analysis of gun politics and policies in Britain and America after the Dunblane and Columbine school shootings. He wrote the 'definitive' study Gun Crime: A Review of Evidence and Policy (2008), for the centre for Crime and Justice Studies and (with Peter Kennison) Shooting to Kill (in 2010), an analysis of police armed response policy development. His new book, Gun Crime in Global Contexts [ ] is due out at the end of June.


The "Sub-Prime, Junk Gun" Economy and its enforcement and policy consequences


A great deal of the evidence relating to active illegal firearms in the UK, with its tight gun control regime, points to some of the displacement consequences of existing control measures - amongst which is the creation of a multi-layered "junk gun" market (also observed elsewhere). Amongst this market we find low-powered, inaccurate, old, even obsolete, firearms that are often converted, reactivated, stolen or even antiques. Research on illegal firearms in Europe (Spapens, 2007) has shown the importance of addressing where, in the supply chain, weapons are most prone to 'slip' from legal to illegal, accordingly modelling the distribution paths for different types of firearm entails differing policy and enforcement options, which the paper will raise and discuss.

Martin Parker


Martin Parker is the Lead Scientist in the UK’s National Ballistics Intelligence Service, overseeing scientific issues for the four forensic hubs responsible for providing intelligence on all aspects of the criminal use of firearms in the UK.

Martin worked for two years in the chemical industry, before being employed as a firearms examiner with the Home Office Forensic Science Service in 1987.

In 1995 he joined the National Training Centre for Scientific Support, training CSIs in all aspects of forensic science, as well as running the Crime Scene Manager and Co-ordinator courses. Subsequently, he joined Cumbria Constabulary as the Scientific Support Manager, this role having overall responsibility for the CSIs, fingerprint bureau, photography and covert surveillance unit.

In early 2006, he was seconded to the DNA unit at the Interpol General Secretariat in Lyon, before returning to take up his current post in November 2006.


NABIS: Combining Forensic Science & Intelligence


In 2008 the UK’s National Ballistic Intelligence Service (NABIS) commenced a new forensic service in the England and Wales. Critically different from previous forensic ballistic units, it had a dedicated intelligence cell and utilised a bespoke database. Scotland joined the service in 2010.

The presentation will show how in the last six years NABIS has built a comprehensive overview of UK gun crime, identifying the different weapons used, revealing the supply routes, establishing the identities of criminals involved and evaluating emerging threats. The presentation themes will be illustrated with casework examples.

Dr Rachel Bolton-King


After completing the BSc (Honours) Sandwich degree in Forensic Science at Nottingham Trent University in 2011, I undertook a PhD in Forensic Firearms Identification and Imaging funded by Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council. My thesis was entitled ‘Classification of Barrel Rifling Transitions for the Forensic Identification of Firearms’ and this was awarded in July 2012. I was awarded the Association of Firearm and Tool Mark Examiners scholarship in 2010 and my continuing research has led to papers published in numerous forensic journals and presentations at national and international conferences.

I began a lectureship in Forensic Investigation at Staffordshire University in 2011, primarily teaching in the disciplines of forensic science (undergraduate and postgraduate awards) and analytical chemistry (undergraduate awards). My position involves management and supervision of national and international research projects in areas of toolmarks, firearms and ballistics and I have lectured internationally in the USA and the Netherlands. I also design and deliver bespoke CPD training courses in these disciplines. Professional memberships include Chartered Society of Forensic Sciences, Royal Society of Chemistry and Higher Education Academy.


Corroded Firearms: The Non-Destructive Approach


Recovery of corroded and damaged firearms can pose a problem to a range of professionals including law enforcement, border control, firearms examiners and archaeologists. Depending on the nature of damage and extent of corrosion the firearms can be completely seized and potentially unidentifiable using traditional visual examination alone. This difficulty impacts upon the ability to undertake legal classification and ensure safe recovery and transportation of the artefacts.

This paper details the use of rapid, non-destructive x-ray systems for the internal examination of a range of corroded weapons. Research has shown that weapons can be identified using visual comparison of firearm’s internal components and can determine whether fired or live ammunition is still housed inside.

Such methods of examination could also be applied to the identification of ammunition, converted and concealed weapons as well as illustrate the potential for intelligence gathering at border control points to further detect smuggling of firearms and/or firearm components.

Dr Georgina Meakin

Georgina joined UCL JDI Centre for the Forensic Sciences in September 2013 as a Research Fellow in Crime and Forensic Science. With a background in molecular genetics, Georgina completed an MSc in Forensic and Analytical Science at the University of Huddersfield, including a placement conducting forensic DNA research at the Forensic Science Service Ltd. Later, she went on to practice as a Forensic Scientist at The Forensic Institute in Glasgow, during which time, she was involved in over 100 cases throughout the UK and in New York, mostly centred around the interpretation and evaluation of DNA evidence. Georgina has provided written and oral evidence and has attended courts in all jurisdictions of the UK as an Expert Witness or a Consulting Expert. Georgina’s research is focussed on the transfer and persistence of DNA and other trace evidence. She is particularly interested in the indirect transfer of DNA and how this affects the evaluation of trace DNA in casework. She is developing international collaborations to raise the profile of this important area of research. 
Dr David Lagnado
David Lagnado


David Lagnado is senior lecturer in Cognitive and Decision Sciences at the Department of Experimental Psychology, UCL. He is a member of the JDI Centre for the Forensic Sciences and the UCL Judicial Institute. His research focuses on formal and psychological models of evidential reasoning, decision making and responsibility attribution. A central theme is the key role of causal models in human judgment. He also explores the use of Bayesian networks in forensic science and legal reasoning. He has published over 50 journal articles, and is co-author of a book Straight Choices: the psychology of decision making. He is currently working on a new book on evidential reasoning in forensic and legal contexts.


Bayesian networks for forensic reasoning


Bayesian networks provide a coherent probabilistic framework for representing and drawing inferences from complex bodies of evidence. By encoding structural relations between variables, Bayesian networks can capture relevant causal knowledge, and accentuate the qualitative side of probabilistic reasoning. The Bayesian framework is increasingly being applied in the forensic sciences. This talk uses Bayesian networks to analyse a recent legal case. The approach highlights key points of contention in the trial and planned appeal, and shows that new experimental evidence is required in order to evaluate the strength of prosecution and defence arguments. Sensitivity analyses also show how a range of different assumptions impact on the interpretation of the evidence.

Tony Coombes


Tony Coombes is a CSI manager for Derbyshire Constabulary. He has received commendations for investigations such as the murder of Jia Ashton. He has qualifications and specialisations which include Advanced Blood Pattern Analysis, Level 3 fire investigation, crime scene co-ordination and CBRN investigation. Tony started his career as a Field Archaeologist working with Cambridge University and Cambridge County council. He encountered forensic work which ignited an ambition to be a CSI. He took a Biology degree specialising in image enhancement and in 1994 became a CSI with Derbyshire Constabulary. He quickly attained a high detection rate along with achievements such as the first DNA database detection in the country. He implemented and managed the Force’s successful footwear system. His passion is the development of deductive reasoning at crime scenes. 


Forensic Touch, a glove that does more than protect


· The current situation - Contamination problems, the costs and issues.

· How the glove works - Fingerprints, detection rates, better scene reading & DNA.

· First phase test results from Portsmouth University

Dr Graham Williams


Dr Graham Williams is a Senior Lecturer in Forensic Genetics at the University of Huddersfield. He is also Postgraduate Forensic Science Course Leader, which covers a wide range of pathways, including a range of specialist subjects. Prior to this position, he was a Reporting Officer at the Forensic Science Service in London, where he reported DNA and body fluid evidence in a wide range of cases from volume crimes, through to sexual assaults, homicides, and terrorism cases.

He continues as a practitioner for the defence and regularly produces report relating to blood stain pattern analysis and clothing damage.

In addition, he is research active in the field of forensic genetics, investigating strategies for improving body fluid identification, with extensive publications and conference presentations. He currently leads the Forensic Genetics Research Group, which contains eight researchers at undergraduate and postgraduate level.


Forensic Genetics: Beyond Human Identification


Forensic genetics is often synonymous with ‘DNA’, which is reasonable given that DNA profiling through fragment analysis of short tandem repeats is one of the most powerful evidence types available to the investigator. However, there is more to forensic genetics than human identification (HID). Forensic genetics is not just about the DNA, but it is also about RNA molecules and the epigenome. This talk will cover some of the HID capabilities as well additional current and future capabilities, such as body fluid identification, stain age estimation, and external visible characteristics.

Professor Richard Wortley

Richard Wortley is Director of the Jill Dando Institute at UCL, Head of the Department of Security and Crime Science at UCL and Director of the SECReT Doctoral Training Centre.  He has a PhD in psychology, and worked as a prison psychologist for ten years before moving to academia. He was head of the School of Criminology and Criminal Justice at Griffith University (Australia) for 9 years, and is a past national Chair of the Australian Psychological Society’s College of Forensic Psychologists. His research interests centre on environmental criminology and situational crime prevention. In recent years his research has been particularly concerned with the role that immediate environments play in facilitating child sexual abuse. He has been a chief investigator on 8 national competitive grants in Australia with total finding of around $Aus2 million.
Nicholas Alston, CBE


Nick Alston is the first elected Police and Crime Commissioner for Essex. Born into an Essex Police family Nick read Natural Sciences at Cambridge before serving a short service commission in the Royal Navy as an Instructor Officer. He then served for nearly 30 years in the UK Defence and National Security sector where he was closely involved in intelligence operations against a range of targets including terrorism and serious crime. He also gained extensive protective security experience and in 1999 launched the UK National Infrastructure Security Co-ordination Centre which became the Centre for Protection of the National Infrastructure (CPNI).

In 2006 Nick joined a leading US investment bank responsible for the security of the firm first in Europe and the Middle East, then Asia becoming co-head of its global security operations. He retired in 2011 becoming a Non-Executive Director at an acute hospital trust and also an advisor to Digital Barriers plc. a leading security technology company. He was elected as PCC for Essex in November 2012.

Nick was appointed CBE in 1997 for his leadership of UK counter terrorist operations.


Crime Science; is it just of academic interest? How to reach a new audience.


Crime science and related disciplines have gained a firm foothold in universities in the UK and overseas.  But does it yet have sufficient influence on operational policing?  Will resource pressures help or hinder?  Elected Police and Crime Commissioners now hold the purse strings but are they interested in the science and do they understand it?

There are both risks and opportunities with the new governance arrangements and with a renewed strong focus on visible local policing.   The demise of the National Police Improvement Agency adds a further pressure.  Will the College of Policing do better?

This after lunch talk will explore the issues and hopefully set up an optimistic afternoon.

Professor Tao Cheng


Tao Cheng is a Professor in GeoInformatics at Department of Civil, Environmental and Geomatics Engineering, and the Director of SpaceTimeLab ( in University College London, a multidisciplinary research Centre that focuses on developing theories, methods and tools for modelling spatio-temporal complexity in society, economics and engineering. She has extensive experience of spatio-temporal analytics of big data in crime, transport and health, in collaboration with Metropolitan Police, Transport for London, NHS and Arup. She is currently leading the CPC project (Crime, Policing and Citizenship, addressing the aims of RCUK’s Global Uncertainties Programme on crime, terrorism and ideologies and beliefs.

Tao Cheng has over 160 academic publications and is a past recipient of the U. V. Helava Award for the best paper in the ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing. She is the Director of MSc in Geographic Information Science (, a well-established and highly regarded course for two decades. She is also the Director of MSc in Spatio-Temporal Analytics and Big Data Mining (, a newly lunched course in association of UCL Geography and Computer Science.

Dr Sarah Wise


Sarah Wise is a postdoctoral researcher at University College London. Having recently completed her PhD in Computational Social Science at George Mason University, she is affiliated with the SpaceTimeLab group in the Civil, Environmental and Geomatic Engineering department of UCL. Currently, she is working on models simulating the impact of policing. Her research has focused on the intersection of agent-based modelling, GIS data, and social networks, addressing in particular the process of combining diverse data sources in order to support these forms of analysis.


Using simulation to explore the processes of police tasking and decision-making


In order to understand how effective police interventions may be, it is crucial to understand how police activity impacts reported crime rates. To that end, researchers need to explore how police carry out the taskings they are given, and how the operationalisation of these assignments translates into police presence, movement, and interaction with the community. Using agent-based modelling (ABM) to simulate the actions, perceptions, attributes, and decisions of police officers, we present a model of policing behaviour. We compare our results with GPS traces of real police vehicles and officers in order to assess how successfully the model captures the dynamics of police behaviour. The model is part of a larger research effort to explore how policing can be targeted in order to impact crime rates.

Toby Davies


Toby Davies is a research associate in the Department of Civil, Environmental and Geomatic Engineering at University College London. After completing an MMath in Mathematics at the University of Oxford, he joined the SECReT PhD program at UCL, where he was co-supervised between the departments of Mathematics and Security Science. His research interests concern the use of approaches from complexity science in the context of crime; in particular, the measurement of space-time clustering, the influence of street networks on crime, and the evolution of large-scale riots. He now works on the Crime, Policing and Citizenship project at UCL, studying the interaction between crime occurrence, policing activity and public perception.


Street network effects in crime and policing


A number of theories of environmental criminology, most notably pattern theory, state that the distribution of crime in space and time can be reconciled with the concentration of human activities and awareness. The street network, on which facilities are located and through which individuals must travel when moving between them, is a key determinant of this, and would therefore be expected to influence crime patterns. In particular, streets which are either more accessible or have greater potential for use are expected to experience greater victimisation, by virtue of the greater frequency with which criminal opportunities are encountered. Although this has been the subject of previous empirical work, network properties are typically measured in such a way that their relationship with theory is somewhat opaque. Here, we apply metrics from graph theory which can be linked explicitly to theory and which offer a significantly more objective and granular quantification than those considered previously. By considering a number of datasets, including those from London and Birmingham, we examine the relationship between network characteristics and the occurrence of several crime types, finding that more central streets do indeed experience higher levels of crime. These findings offer support for place- and opportunity-based theories of crime, and highlight the importance of incorporating network effects in models of urban crime.

Gabriel Rosser


Gabriel is a PDRA working in the SpaceTimeLab under the supervision of Professor Tao Cheng.  He is a member of the Crime, Policing and Citizenship project team.  Gabriel completed a DPhil at Oxford University in mathematical biology, where he used modelling and statistical data analysis to study the process by which bacteria propel themselves through a liquid.  His current research interests include developing novel methods to analyse spatiotemporal data patterns, with a particular emphasis on machine learning and point process models.  He is also interested in improving computational methods through parallelisation and intelligent algorithms.


Self-exciting point process models of spatiotemporal crime patterns


The near-repeat phenomenon of crime occurrence describes the empirical observation that certain crimes cause an elevated risk of further crimes in the spatial and temporal neighbourhood.  This process is well described as a self-exciting point process, a branching process in which crime events trigger further events with a well-defined intensity that varies in space and time.  An application of this model to burglary data recorded in Los Angeles, USA, was recently described in the literature.  We discuss the computational implementation and validation of this model, identify several modifications to the originally proposed method and finally apply the approach to crime data from the London Borough of Camden.

Dr Kacper Gradon
Kacper Gradon


Dr Kacper Gradon is an Associate Professor at the Faculty of Law, University of Warsaw and the Director of the Centre for Forensic & Investigative Sciences (University of Warsaw). He is also a Associate Visiting Professor at UCL Department of Security and Crime Science as well as the University College London Honorary Senior Research Associate. Both his Masters (2000) and Doctoral (2008, Magna cum Laude) dissertations address the issues of multiple homicide, crime prevention, criminal analysis and offender profiling. He has over 13 years of experience in research projects and teaching related to Crime Prevention, Criminology and Forensic Science that he gained in Poland, UK, Canada and the USA. He has spoken at over 90 academic and Police conferences across Europe and North America. Kacper worked for 3 years at the General Headquarters of the Polish National Police, where he participated in the creation of the Criminal Analysis and Criminal Intelligence Units. He also completed the London Metropolitan Police Specialist Operations Training of Hostage Negotiations. He is a recipient of three research scholarships funded by the Canadian International Development Agency and he was awarded three major research grants presented by the Polish Ministry of Science. His Ph.D. Thesis received the Polish Forensic Association “Scholarship for Young Experts in Forensics for Outstanding Achievements in Forensic Studies“. He was also awarded the “Best Young Professor” scholarship by the Polish “Modern University” Programme. In October 2011 he has received the most prestigious award of the Polish Ministry of Science: „The Scholarship for Outstanding Academics”. He is the creator and original leader of the first hands-on crime scene analysis workshops in Poland, called “CSI: Warsaw”. Dr. Gradon has previously lectured at University College London, University of Colorado at Boulder, University of Southern California, John Jay College of Criminal Justice - CUNY, University of Greenwich and Memorial University of Newfoundland and has co-operated closely with other institutions such as University of Harvard Law School: Berkman Center for the Internet & Society and Stanford University. Kacper’s current research interest address new techniques used in prevention of violent crime. He focuses on the application of digital and Internet forensics and analysis to forecasting and combating criminal and terrorist acts. His work also includes the practical aspects and tactics of crime scene investigation as well as surveillance technologies and integrated crime prevention. He is an author of two academic books and several book chapters and peer-reviewed articles. He is currently the Primary Investigator in the European Commission FP7 Project PRIME (“Preventing, Interdicting and Mitigating Extremism: Defending Against Lone Actor Extremist Events”. As the Director of the Centre for Forensic & Investigative Sciences he will be responsible for the development and management of the first independent, interdisciplinary, University-led forensic laboratory in Poland.

Jonathan Flaherty


Jon Flaherty is the Operations Team Leader working on cyber crime investigations to combat the criminal misuse of the Internet against the threats of malware deployment, development and network intrusion. Jon has worked in this sector since the creation of the National Hi Tech Crime Unit in 2001 through to the NCA across investigation and intelligence streams and currently develops new tools and techniques to assist both cyber crime investigation and prevent and disrupt activity.


The changing architecture of the Internet : Challenges for 21st Century Law Enforcement To Evidence Criminality


The identification, global location and layered ownership of online electronic evidence presents law enforcement with a volatile playing field and an often complex path to find suspect evidence on the Internet. In such an environment where Industry are the judge, jury and executioner of both the evidence trails and it's capture, this presentation will detail the current challenges law enforcement face. This will be delivered through a recent case study highlighting the difficulties of securing evidence and the methods used to find it.

Professor Carlos Cid
Carlos Cid


Carlos is a Professor in the Information Security Group at Royal Holloway, University of London. Having received a PhD in Mathematics from the University of Brasilia, Brazil, in 1999, he spent a year as postdoctoral researcher at RWTH-Aachen, Germany, and two years working as software engineer for an Irish network security start-up. Carlos joined the Information Security Group in October 2003, and is currently the Director of Royal Holloway's Centre for Doctoral Training in Cyber Security. Carlos has broad interest and experience in the field of cyber security: he teaches Security and Penetration Testing in Royal Holloway's MSc in Information Security programme, and is an active researcher in cryptography and applications of game theory to information security. He is member of the Editorial Board of the Designs, Codes and Cryptography journal, and was general and programme co-chair of the Fast Software Encryption workshop (FSE 2014), held in London in March 2014. Carlos is the co-author of the book Algebraic Aspects of the Advanced Encryption Standard, and also often works as an independent consultant in the areas of cryptology (e.g. algorithm design and evaluation), network and mobile communication security.


Modelling Cyber Attacks with Game Theory


Game Theory concentrates on the study and analysis of mathematical models for the interaction of decision-makers. Game theoretic models are constructed under the assumption that players involved consistently pursue well-defined objectives (i.e. they are rational), and that they take into account their knowledge or expectations of the other players’ behaviour when making decisions. Game theory has broad applicability in areas such as Economics, Political Sciences and Biology. More recently, the use of game theoretical techniques has also become a popular and powerful method for the analysis and study of problems of relevance to the cyber security community. Instead of the traditional approach used in the design of security systems and protocols (which assumes honest vs malicious entities), game theoretic modelling considers the scenario in which all parties are self-interested and respond to incentives. In this talk we give a brief overview of some recent academic research that consider modelling cyber attacks as games. We discuss the use of game theoretical tools in their study and analysis, highlighting some of the advantages as well as the limitations of game theoretic modelling in cyber security.

Professor Monica Whitty


Professor Monica Whitty is a cyber psychologist in the Department of Media and Communication at The University of Leicester. Her current main focus on research is cyber security. She is first author of ‘Truth, Lies and Trust on the Internet’ (2009, Routledge) with Adam Joinson. She is currently running funded projects on: mass marking fraud, Superidentity (EPSRC), and Corporate Detection Insider threat (HMG, sponsored by CPNI). She has published on the following topics: cyber-relationships, stress and coping, mass marketing fraud, insider threat, online identity, deception, cyberstalking, cyberethics, internet surveillance, and taboos in video games.


The human element of insider threat


The threat from insiders to an organisation (government or commercial) is a growing concern. We understand an insider to be anyone working within a central government department or a commercial organisation that attacks that organisation; examples include: theft (IP, company secrets, money, data), fraud, terrorism, reputation damage, blackmail, denial of service attacks, introduction of viruses, worms, Trojan horses, corruption or deletion of data, altering data, and password cracking. This talk outlines the need to consider the behavioural side of insider threat in any monitoring tools for real-time detection. I will be presenting both qualitative and quantitative work which profiles insiders and illustrates potential ways they might be detected within organisations.

Steve Burton


Steve Burton is Director of Enforcement and On-Street Operations at Transport for London (TfL).

The Directorate has overall responsibility for setting TfL’s strategic direction around transport policing and enforcement and producing TfL’s Community Safety Strategy. It developes TfL policies relating to transport policing and community safety on the transport system in London, undertakes performance management of policing services through a Compstat type process and contract management of TfL’s agreements with policing agencies for policing services (these currently provide over 2,900 uniformed officers on London’s transport system).

In addition, the team provides crime and anti-social behaviour reduction, problem solving, project management, mapping and analysis services in connection with TfL’s policing agenda. The Directorate also delivers revenue protection activities on London’s bus network and on-street congestion reduction actvitites, alongside being responsible for Taxi, Private Hire, Vehicle & Operator compliance and enforcement activities.

Previously Steve worked for the Mayor of London as Head of Strategic Performance managing teams of staff responsible for mayoral briefings on crime and transport issues and monitoring the activities of the major city agencies including TfL and the Metropolitan Police Service.

Dr Andrew Newton


Dr Andrew Newton is a Senior Research Fellow at the Applied Criminology Centre, University of Huddersfield, and an Honorary Senior Research Associate at the Department of Security and Crime Science, University College London. He has worked in the fields of socio-spatial criminology, community safety and security since 1999 and his research interests include the geography of crime / socio-spatial criminology, policy analysis and evaluation, society and technology, and mixed methods in applied research.  His research has been funded by a range of organisations including the Home Office and the Department for Transport. He is widely published and has presented at over 50 international conferences. He recently presented his research on theft on the London Underground as oral evidence to the House of Commons Transport Select Committee on ‘Security on the Railway’, and is currently working with international colleagues to develop an International Network on Safety and Security on Public Transport.


Investigating Moving Hot Spots on Public Transport: A case study of pick-pocketing and associated risk factors on the London Underground


Transport systems pose unique challenges for hot spot analysis due to the dynamic nature of the transport network. This is further complicated for pick-pocketing as the precise location of these offences are often unknown, only discovered post offence elsewhere on the network. This collaborative research between the University of Huddersfield and Transport for London presents a case study analysis of pick-pocketing on the London Underground (LU). The presentation will: demonstrate the use of the Interstitial Crime Analysis (ICA) technique to model pick-pocketing on the LU; present evidence of the relationship between theft ‘below ground’ on the LU and ‘above ground’ near to stations at peak travel times; and, identify particular risk factors associated both 'in' and ' around' (near to) stations which, when combined, can increase or reduce the risk of theft on the LU.

Dr Barak Ariel


Dr Barak Ariel is a Lecturer in Evidence-Based Policing and a Jerry Lee Fellow of Experimental Criminology at the Institute of Criminology of the University of Cambridge. He is also a Tenure-Track Associate Professor in Criminology at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem, Israel.  Dr Ariel is involved in evaluation research projects with a large number of criminal justice agencies around the world, including the United States, England and Wales, India, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay, Northern Ireland, Costa Rica, and Israel, to name a few. He was the recipient of the Academy of Experimental Criminology Young Experimental Scholar Award for his work in experimental criminology. Dr Ariel publishes in leading journals in criminology on various topics, including hotspot policing, deterrence, interagency collaborations, and technology in policing. 

Inspector Homre Varley


Inspector Homre Varley has over 20 years service all in the MPS, starting at Bethnal Green as a constable  then transferring  to Hackney police station. There he was posted to a response team answering 999 calls working various shifts. Whilst posted to Hackney he also had an attachment to the Burglary squad for six months . In 2007 Homre was successful in his application to join the Territorial Support group (Riot police) based at Bow where he worked for 6 years dealing with large scale public order events, May day riots, the hijacking of a Afghanistan jet which landed at Stanstead to mention a few incidents' of note. In 2003 he was promoted to sergeant and was again posted to Hackney to a response team and then later managed a safer Neighbourhoods  ward (Chatham) where he reduced crime and won the award for the best safer neighbourhood team in London. From there he worked with the youths in Hackney and set up numerous youth Diversion activities with the British Army, Cycle work shops and Conflict management work shops in partnership with the prison service. Homre was a positive role model in the community. He then set up a youth gangs unit which still is operating today. The YOTs and the police worked closely targeting the most violent offenders taking positive action and giving the Gang members an opportunity to divert from crime. Homre then was promoted to Inspector and was posted to Waltham Forest as a Duty officer on core team managing  Firearm and critical incidents. There he set up the Safer Transport team for six months and then transferred to the Road policing and Transport command where he took over a Task team to tackle volume crime pan London. After two years he was posted to Hackney borough to lead the safer Transport team where he is still currently posted. He has been awarded several commendations for Bravery, during his service.

PRESENTATION TITLE (joint presentation by Dr Barak Ariel and Inspector Homre Varley)

A Direct Test of “Local Deterrence” and “Deterrence Radiation”: Lessons from the London Bus Experiment


We present findings from the first randomized controlled trial that focus specifically on crime and disorder near bus stops and on bus route segments earlier this year. Bus stops are known crime generators/attractors, yet no evidence exists on effective deployment of police officers to deal specifically with the crime and disorder problem they pose. In collaboration with Transport for London and the Metropolitan Police, we randomly assigned 101 of London’s hottest bus stops to 3 x 15-minute visits per day, for six months, in a block randomised controlled trial design. Over 40 Metropolitan Police Service officers targeted these bus stops and the bus lines/routes adjacent to these stops, thus providing evidence on the effect patrols have on two different transit environments. GPS trackers were used to measure dosage and treatment delivery. We estimate the treatment effect using several outcomes, including reported crimes and calls for service in varying radii around the bus stops, drivers’ incident reports, passengers’ satisfactions and fear of crime and network analyses. In this panel presentation, we will pay particular attention to our evidence on displacement, as our study provides an inimitable kaleidoscope on the displacement argument, given the uniqueness of the closed network character of the bus system.  We present the findings in the wider context of “deterrence radiation” which measures the spatiotemporal dimensions of Clarke and Weisburd’s (1994) concept of “diffusion of benefits”.

Dr Vania Ceccato


Vania Ceccato is Associate Professor at Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), Stockholm, Sweden. She has conducted research on spatial patterns of crime in Scandinavia, Brazil, UK and the Baltic countries particularly on the relation between crime and socio-economic neighbourhood dynamics and land use characteristics. Her current research projects deal with safety as a commodity and a public good, crime and fear of crime in transport nodes, space-time dynamics of rape and community safety. She is the editor of the book “The urban fabric of crime and fear”, 2012 and the author of “Moving safely: Crime and safety in Stockholm's subway stations” 2014.

Space-time dynamics of crime in underground stations: The case of Stockholm, Sweden


My focus on this presentation is on space–time variations of crime rates in underground stations in the Swedish capital, Stockholm. I start by showing daily, weekly, and seasonal variations of crime at underground stations and then presenting some of the main findings of the analysis. Data from field work at the stations was combined using Geographical information systems (GIS) with crime records and passenger flow. I show that crimes tend to happen more often in the evening, at night, on holidays, and on weekends. In the winter, stations with social disturbance and signs of deterioration show high levels of crime, whereas in the summer, offenses are concentrated in stations nearby alcohol selling outlets. More interestingly, I suggest that the role of the stations’ environment on crime causation varies over time—an important fact for safety interventions.

Nick Ross
Ross image


Nick Ross is a British broadcaster and journalist who for many years presented the BBC crime appeals show Crimewatch and helped establish the UCL Jill Dando Institute of Crime Science where he is chairman of the Board and a visiting professor. He is a psychologist by background and a campaigner for evidence-based policy and author of ‘Crime: how to solve it and why almost everything we’re told is wrong’.

(The book was launched at last year’s conference.)

Nick Dove


Nick served as a police officer for over 30 years in London, Surrey and the Balkans. His most recent roles included Head of Intelligence for the Metropolitan Police and Chief of the Organised Crime Investigation Unit in Kosovo. During his career he worked as a detective in every rank up to Detective Chief Superintendent and ran numerous covert operations across the UK and abroad. He is also a highly experience hostage negotiator. Nick currently works as a consultant most recently in East Africa and Europe.


Page last modified on 03 jun 14 11:41