Evaluating Ofsted: examining inspection reliability and its impact on parental decision-making
UCL Institute of Education research analyses Ofsted inspections to promote greater transparency and accountability in education.
Grand Challenge: Data-empowered Societies
School inspections are a vital way to ensure that schools are functioning well: at their best, they provide data-driven accountability, recognise excellence and draw attention to ways in which schools might improve. But there is also public concern about the possible detrimental effects of inspection, and the controversy often spills over into the media.
UCL Institute of Education’s research into Ofsted inspections is contributing to UCL’s Grand Challenge of Data-Empowered Societies by analysing this influential system using novel data, and by applying the findings to promote greater transparency and accountability in education, both in the UK and internationally.
Holding Ofsted to account
Innovative research, which gathered novel data through scraping of online Ofsted reports, has examined the reliability and usefulness of Ofsted inspections, revealing key issues in the process. Four peer-reviewed studies published in 2023 provided the first evidence that Ofsted judgements vary depending on the characteristics of the lead inspector and that Ofsted ratings offer limited value to parents selecting schools.
Given the high stakes nature of this work and its potential to disrupt confidence in the system, the research team worked hard to ensure the results were carefully communicated. Ahead of publishing the findings, the team, including UCL Institute of Education’s Professor John Jerrim (UCL Social Research Institute) and Dr Sam Sims (Department of Learning and Leadership) alongside University of Southampton’s Dr Christian Bokhove, actively engaged with key stakeholders to ensure an accurate and meaningful discussion of the results. Senior leaders at Ofsted were briefed directly, and discussions were held with education journalists and teaching unions to provide clarity before the papers entered the public domain.
On release, a blog series in collaboration with the Education Data Lab and the IOE Blog was published, accompanied by social media discussions that garnered over 60,000 views. The research was further disseminated through op-eds in Schools Week and TES, as well as podcasts reaching education professionals.
Stimulating widespread debate and influencing future policy
The findings generated widespread debate across both the education sector and mainstream media. Leading news outlets, including the BBC and The Guardian, reported on the research, amplifying its impact. A significant moment came when the BBC’s flagship programme Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg cited the research directly during an interview with former HMCI Baroness Amanda Spielman, using the evidence to challenge the reliability of Ofsted judgements.
Beyond media coverage, the research findings have been referenced in policy discussions, with Labour’s then Shadow Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson drawing upon the work in a speech advocating for reform. In addition, the Education Select Committee invited the research team to a private roundtable discussion on Ofsted’s role in school accountability.
The research has also contributed to policy development within the education sector. The Confederation of School Trusts (CST) incorporated the findings into its policy paper on inspection reform, endorsing calls for further research into the reliability of Ofsted’s judgements. Internationally, the Dutch Inspectorate of Education has drawn on the findings to inform its own review of school inspection reliability, following discussions with the researchers.
More recently, Ofsted’s new chief inspector, Sir Martyn Oliver, has made several changes in response to the research, among other factors. This includes releasing Ofsted’s training material and committing to share further data to facilitate further research into school inspection. By questioning assumptions about the objectivity of school inspections and their role in shaping parental decisions, this research is contributing to a more transparent, fair and informed education system.