Major Grant to Improve Climate Tipping Point Forecasting

Project VERIFY aims to develop an early warning system for climate tipping points. It does this by analysing past climate data using advanced modelling techniques.

Understanding Climate Tipping Points

Climate tipping points are crucial thresholds in the Earth's system. Once crossed, they can trigger significant and often irreversible changes. Predicting these tipping points is a major challenge. Past models have struggled to fully capture the complex interactions that drive them.

Project VERIFY aims to bridge that gap through developing Digital Twins, highly detailed computer simulations trained on real-world data. The aim is to use Digital Twins to test the reliability of early warning signals.

UCL’s Role in Project VERIFY

Professor David Thornalley, co-lead on the project, will play a key role in integrating palaeoclimate observations into these predictive models.

His expertise lies in reconstructing past oceanic and climate conditions. This will help refine early warning systems for major climate shifts. These include changes in the Greenland Ice Sheet and the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre, both crucial for global climate regulation.

“Crossing a tipping point in the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre would alter UK climate and have severe repercussions for our biodiversity, food security, agriculture, and more.  

In Project VERIFY we will make use of real-world examples of past tipping points to better understand these events and to test how well any early warning systems are performing.”

Several UCL researchers are supporting this effort. Professors Chris Brierley (UCL Department of Geography) and Richard Chandler (UCL Department of Statistical Science) focus on developing early warning systems. Dr Erica Thompson (UCL Department of Science, Technology, Engineering and Public Policy – UCL STEaPP) focuses on communicating climate risks and impacts. Professor Serge Guillas (Department of Statistical Science and ARC) will use advanced computation and statistical methods to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of complex climate models.

Professor Guillas said, “Detecting an upcoming tipping point with high confidence requires novel measurement technologies and strategies. It needs cutting-edge quantification of uncertainties for detailed simulations of the real world and efficient data stewardship.

“UCL’s Advanced Research Computing Centre, together with UCL’s Departments of Statistical Science, STEaPP and Geography and external partners will investigate and implement new methods and tools to provide innovative solutions to this grand challenge.”

They are part of an interdisciplinary team made up of colleagues from seven other leading institutions including the University of Leeds, the National Oceanography Centre, and the British Antarctic Survey, co-led by Professor Thornalley and Dr Ruza Ivanovic (University of Leeds).

A Global Collaboration for Climate Action

Project VERIFY is part of ARIA’s £81 million Forecasting Tipping Points programme, which will unite 27 international teams in a collaborative effort to detect the earliest signs of climate tipping points.

The Forecasting Tipping Points programme is co-led by Programme Directors Gemma Bale and Sarah Bohndiek. It aims to develop an early warning system. This system will provide society with the information, understanding, and time needed to accelerate proactive climate adaptation and mitigation.

Project VERIFY combines AI, palaeoclimate data, and next-generation observation techniques. It aims to make climate forecasting more accurate, reliable, and actionable than ever before.

More information

Project VERIFY will be recruiting seven PhD Studentships to join their interdisciplinary team. Please visit our Fees and Funding page or contact Professor David Thornalley at d.thornalley@ucl.ac.uk for more details.

• Find out more about the Forecasting Tipping Points funding call
• Learn about ARIA
• Visit Professor David Thornalley's Academic Staff Profile

Please note: This funding remains subject to final contract negotiation.