Ageing population with care needs set to grow by 25% within a decade

The first results, published in Lancet Public Health, show that the burden of disability will grow as a result of the rising number of people living into old age (25% from 2015 over a decade), rather than an increase in ill-health. This illustrates the huge challenges looming over the health system as the population continues to age. Urgent need for better disease prevention policies targeting poor diet, smoking, alcohol, high blood pressure and physical inactivity, as well as increased investment in health and social care.

Forecasted trends in disability and life expectancy in England and Wales up to 2025: a modelling study,Dr Maria Guzman-Castillo, Sara Ahmadi-Abhari, Piotr Bandosz, Prof Simon Capewell, Prof Andrew Steptoe, Prof Archana Singh-Manoux, Prof Mika Kivimaki, Martin J Shipley, Prof Eric J Brunner, Prof Martin O'Flaherty, The Lancet Public Health, 23 May 2017.

Links to media coverage stories:

• UCL News: https://www.ucl.ac.uk/news/news-articles/0517/24052017_ageing_population
• The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/may/24/nhs-faces-staggering-increase-in-cost-of-elderly-care-academics-warn-dementia
• The Times: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/number-of-pensioners-who-need-care-to-rise-by-quarter-kbff5vlf2
• Daily Telegraph: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/24/number-pensioners-needing-care-set-rise-one-quarter-lancet/
• Daily Mail: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4535728/NHS-challenge-65s-needing-care-set-leap.html
• The Sun: https://www.thesun.co.uk/living/3634396/number-of-pensioners-needing-care-could-rocket-to-nearly-3million-over-the-next-decade/
• Press Association: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/pa/article-4536698/Over-65s-chronic-conditions-disability-surge-2-8m-2025.html