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In seismic risk assessments carried out by private or public sector entities, building damage is typically estimated using fragility functions, which relate the probability of exceedence of multiple damage states to a parameter of ground motion severity. Fragility functions are an essential part of any seismic risk model, however three major limitations can be identified: (1) the reliability of existing fragility functions for particular building classes, (2) the correlation of existing fragility function to reliable and updated exposure databases of urban and rural building stock so as to produce credible national or sub-national risk profiles (3) the rapid and reliable generation of new fragility functions specific to the seismic area assessed. This project looks to meet these needs, implementing some of the generated tools and methods into the freeware CAPRA risk assessment software platform that has been developed with the support of the World Bank and has primarily been used in the Latin America and the Caribbean region. In particular, the Central America and Caribbean countries lack robust fragility functions notwithstanding their high seismic hazard.
Funding: EPSRC and the World Bank Group
Partners: World Bank Group, US
EpiCentre staff included: Harriette Stone, Tiziana Rossetto, Dina D'Ayala