The original study is - to strengthen modelling capability in regard to investment decisions for improving trade in sea- and land-locked countries.
In this work we aimed to capture the complexities of multiple trade variables which continuously and simultaneously interact, change and adapt to specific contexts and trade chains.
We consider two perspectives. First, for the South Pacific Islands, given that we are able to examine how trade is influenced through a process of cumulative network interactions, we apply an outward-looking perspective using a network theory approach. In this case we analyse how to improve the connectivity of sea and land-locked regions to outside markets – long- and short-distance international trade, regional trade, and accessibility.
For our second study, Uganda, we adopt an inward-looking perspective using agent-based modelling (ABM), where we examine agent behaviours in trade and logistics networks. Here, we test how the behaviours of trading agents are influenced by incentives and policies, with the aim of decreasing costs and delays.
Both methodologies effectively demonstrate how increasing and diminishing returns of the trade process can spur growth. Furthermore, we identify our new, 6C collaborative approach to trade, where growth and trade advantages can be gained through connectivity and interdependency within and between countries. We give specific solutions and elaborate the 6C factors: Cooperation, Competition, Consolidation, Coordination, Communication/Connection, and Cocreation/Co-sharing, the essential steps to improved trade. Altogether, the 6C factors can leverage financial resources and investments and help tackle trade ‘insularity’. In this work we have sought to examine how a collaborative trade approach can connect both market and social objectives, increase cohesion and inclusion, and ultimately, welfare. www.ucl.ac.uk/qaser
Author
Francesca Medda
