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UCL ENERGY INSTITUTE MODELS

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Example of the utility and limits of models

All integrated assessment models (e.g. TIAM-UCL-IAM) tend to use economics as the main criteria for decision-making and aim to minimise total energy system cost.  This means that scenarios from these models tend towards normative descriptions of the future that simulate what should happen from an economic perspective rather than what will happen.

Important influences on the energy system, e.g. energy security, equity and affordability concerns, or often not included in these models but are at the forefront of politicians minds.  This is important both within and between countries.  For example, global models will find the least overall cost but this might create winners and losers in different regions of the world and those people who stand to lose out will resist the changes identified by the model.

The IPCC characterise integrated assessment models in terms of:

  • Economic coverage
  • Foresight (perfect or myopic)
  • Representation of trade between world regions
  • Assumed flexibility of global economies
  • Model detail (e.g. level of disaggregation of regions, technologies, etc.)
  • Representation of technological change

It is more appropriate to describe other types of models using different criteria.