UCL Energy Institute Models



UKTM-UCL is currently under development at the UCL Energy Institute to replace the UK MARKAL model.  The first version of UKTM is expected to be completed in mid-2014.  It is based on the TIMES model generator, similar to TIAM-UCL and ETM-UCL.

The entire design of UK MARKAL has been reviewed and revised as part of the UKTM design process.  UKTM also offers a number of new features:

  • Sectors are realigned according to research and policy questions.  To enable different scenario baselines to be examined, taxes, policies and hurdle rates are added to the base model using separate modules.
  • UK MARKAL research projects from the last few years have been reviewed and improved data has been added to UKTM where appropriate; these cover parts of the bioenergy, hydrogen, transport, residential, service, industrial and non-energy sectors.
  • The model baseline year is now 2010 and the model baseline is calibrated to DUKES and NAEI data for 2010.
  • UKTM includes emissions of all of the major greenhouse gases from energy and non-energy uses for the first time.  New technologies are available to reduce emissions from outside of the energy system.

The results from MARKAL and TIMES models are absolutely reliant on the generation of internally consistent scenarios.  In reality, consistency is seldom achieved as different high level drivers are used to derive different demands.  UKTM will provide an easier way to compare input assumptions and resulting outputs. 

Model summary

Type: Bottom-up, technology-rich cost optimisation
Purpose: Decarbonisation pathways, technology assessment
Policy impact: None
Spatial scale: UK single region
Temporal scale: 4 seasons, 4 intraday (day, evening peak, late evening, night)
Main contact: Pei-Hao Li
Other contacts: Paul DoddsNeil Strachan


An overview of UKTM is available.  The full documentation will appear here when it is published.