TIAM-UCL Publications

Ekins, P., Drummond, P., Scamman, D., Paroussos, L. & Keppo, I. The 1.5°C climate and energy scenarios: impacts on economic growth. Oxford Open Energy 1, (2022). https://academic.oup.com/ooenergy/article/doi/10.1093/ooenergy/oiac005/6550337

Welsby, D., Price, J., Pye, S. et al. Unextractable fossil fuels in a 1.5 °C world. Nature 597, 230–234 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03821-8 

Vivid Economics and UCL (Pye, S., Price, J., Welsby, D., Winning, M.) (2020). Unpacking leadership-driven global scenarios towards the Paris Agreement. Report prepared for the UK Committee on Climate Change. August 2020. Available at: https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/unpacking-leadership-driven-global...

Cronin, J., Pye, S., Price, J., Butnar, I. (2020). Biomass, afforestation and energy demand reduction: trade-offs in the route to decarbonisation. UKERC Report. Available at: http://www.ukerc.ac.uk/publications/afforestation-energy-demand.html

Butnar, I., Broad, O., Solano Rodriguez, B., & Dodds, P. E. (2020). The role of bioenergy for global deep decarbonisation: CO2 removal or low‐carbon energy? GCB Bioenergy, 2020;00: 1–15. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcbb.12666

Pye, S., Price, J., Cronin, J., Butnar, I., & Welsby, D. (2019). Modelling ‘leadership - driven’ scenarios of the global mitigation effort. Prepared in support of the Committee on Climate Change’s (CCC) 2019 report Net Zero: The UK’s contribution to stopping global warming. London, UK. Available at https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/modelling-leadership-driven-scenar...

Winning, M., Price, J., Ekins, P., Pye, S., Glynn, J., Watson, J., & McGlade, C. (2019). Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement and the costs of delayed action. Climate Policy, 1-12. 

Parkes, B., Cronin, J., Dessens, O.. Sultan, B. (2019). Climate change in Africa: costs of mitigating heat stress. Climatic Change 154, 461–476. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02405-w

Butnar, I., Li, P.-H., Strachan, N., Portugal Pereira, J., Gambhir, A., & Smith, P. (2019). A deep dive into the modelling assumptions for biomass with carbon capture and storage (BECCS): A transparency exercise. Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab5c3e.

Gambhir, A., Butnar, I., Li, P. H., Smith, P., & Strachan, N. (2019). A Review of Criticisms of Integrated Assessment Models and Proposed Approaches to Address These, through the Lens of BECCS. Energies, 12(9), 1747.

McCollum, D.L., C. Wilson, M. Bevione, S. Carrara, O.Y. Edelenbosch, J. Emmerling, C. Guivarch, P. Karkatsoulis, I. Keppo, V. Krey, Z. Lin, E. Ó Broin, L. Paroussos, H.Pettifor, K. Ramea, K. Riahi, F. Sano, B.S. Rodriguez, and D.P. van Vuuren. The role of consumer preferences and climate policies in shaping the global private vehicle market. Nature Energy, 2018.

D.L. McCollum, C. Wilson, M. Bevione, S. Carrara, O.Y. Edelenbosch, J. Emmerling, C. Guivarch, P. Karkatsoulis, I. Keppo, V. Krey, Z. Lin, E. Broin, L. Paroussos, H. Pettifor, K. Ramea, K. Riahi, F. Sano, B.S. Rodriguez, D.P. van Vuuren, Interaction of consumer preferences and climate policies in the global transition to low-carbon vehicles, Nat. Energy. (2018).  doi:10.1038/s41560-018-0195-z.

Winning, M., Pye, S., Glynn, J., Scamman, D., & Welsby, D. (2018). How Low Can We Go? The Implications of Delayed Ratcheting and Negative Emissions Technologies on Achieving Well Below 2° C. In Limiting Global Warming to Well Below 2° C: Energy System Modelling and Policy Development (pp. 51-65). Springer, Cham.

N. Bauer, C. McGlade, J. Hilaire, P. Ekins, Divestment prevails over the green paradox when anticipating strong future climate policies, Nat. Clim. Chang. (2018). doi:10.1038/s41558-017-0053-1 
S. Bradley, G. Lahn, S. Pye, Carbon Risk and Resilience: How Energy Transition is Changing the Prospects for Developing Countries with Fossil Fuels, London, UK, 2018. https://www.chathamhouse.org/publication/carbon-risk-resilience-how-ener....

Ekins, P., Hughes, N. Pye, S., Winning M., Macrory R., Milligan B., Haszeldine S., Watson J., 2017. The role of CCS in meeting climate policy targets. UKERC report commissioned by the Global CCS Institute. https://www.globalccsinstitute.com/resources/publications-reports-resear...

Marangoni, G., Tavoni, M., Bosetti, V., Borgonovo, E., Capros, P., Fricko, O., ... & Johnson, N. (2017). Sensitivity of projected long-term CO2 emissions across the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Nature Climate Change, 7(2), 113-117.

Price, J., & Keppo, I. (2017). Modelling to generate alternatives: A technique to explore uncertainty in energy-environment-economy models. Applied Energy, 195, 356-369.

Edelenbosch, O.Y., van Vuuren, D.P., Bertram, C., Carrara, S., Emmerling, J, Daly, H., … Saadi Failali, N. (2017) Transport fuel demand responses to fuel price and income projections: Comparison of integrated assessment models, Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 55, 310-321.

Edelenbosch, O.Y., Kermeli, K., Crijns-Graus, W., Worrell, E., Bibas, R, Fais, B.., ….&, van Vuuren, D.P. (2017). Comparing projections of industrial energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions in long-term energy models. Energy, 122, 701-710, doi:10.1016/j.energy.2017.01.017.

Edelenbosch, O. Y., McCollum, D. L., van Vuuren, D. P., Bertram, C., Carrara, S., Daly, H., ... & Karkatsoulis, P. (2017). Decomposing passenger transport futures: Comparing results of global integrated assessment models. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 55, 281-293.

Pye, S., McGlade, C., Bataille, C., Anandarajah, G., Denis-Ryan, A., & Potashnikov, V. (2016). Exploring national decarbonization pathways and global energy trade flows: a multi-scale analysis. Climate Policy, 16(sup1), S92-S109.

Dessens, O., Anandarajah, G., & Gambhir, A. (2016). Limiting global warming to 2° C: What do the latest mitigation studies tell us about costs, technologies and other impacts?. Energy Strategy Reviews, 13, 67-76.

McGlade, C., & Ekins, P. (2015). The geographical distribution of fossil fuels unused when limiting global warming to 2 C. Nature, 517(7533), 187-190.

Anandarajah, G., & McDowall, W. (2015). Multi-cluster technology learning in TIMES: a transport sector case study with TIAM-UCL. In Informing Energy and Climate Policies Using Energy Systems Models (pp. 261-278). Springer International Publishing.

Smith, T. W. P., Traut, M., Bows-Larkin, A., Anderson, K., McGlade, C., & Wrobel, P. (2015). CO2 Targets, Trajectories and Trends for International Shipping. Shipping in Changing Climates, 12.
C. McGlade, P. Ekins, Un-burnable oil: An examination of oil resource utilisation in a decarbonised energy system, Energy Policy. 64 (2014) 102–112. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2013.09.042.

C.E. McGlade, M. Bradshaw, G. Anandarajah, J. Watson, P. Ekins, A bridge to a low carbon future? Modelling the long-term global potential of natural gas, UKERC Research Report, London, UK, 2014.

G. Anandarajah, A. Gambhir, India’s CO2 emission pathways to 2050: What role can renewables play?, Appl. Energy. (2014). doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2014.06.026.

Anandarajah G, McDowall W and Ekins P 2013 Decarbonising road transport with hydrogen and electricity: Long term global technology learning scenarios Int. J. Hydrogen Energy 38 3419–32 Online: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2012.12.110.

Knopf, B., Chen, Y-H.H., De Cian, E., Förster, H., Kanudia, A., Karkatsouli, I., Keppo, I., Koljonen, T., Schumacher, K. & D.P. van Vuuren. 2013. Beyond 2020 - Strategies and costs for transforming the European energy system. Climate Change Economics, 4 (Suppl. 1).

De Cian, E., Keppo, I., Bollen, J., Carrara, S., Förster, H., Hübler, M., Kanudia, A., Paltsev, S., Sands, R, Schumacher, K. 2013. European-led climate policy versus global mitigation action. Implications on trade, technology, and energy. Climate Change Economics, 4 (Suppl. 1).

Förster, H., Schumacher, K., De Cian, E., Hübler, M., Keppo, I., Mima, S. Sands, R.D. 2013. European energy efficiency and decarbonization strategies beyond 2030 –  A sectoral multi-model decomposition. Climate Change Economics, 4 (Suppl. 1).

Anandarajah G. and McGlade C. (2012) Modelling carbon price impacts of global energy scenarios. Report submitted to Committee on Climate Change (CCC).

F. Kesicki, G. Anandarajah, The role of energy-service demand reduction in global climate change mitigation: Combining energy modelling and decomposition analysis, Energy Policy. 39 (2011) 7224–7233.

Anandarajah G and Usher W. (2011) Developing Long-term carbon values using TIAM-UCL. Report submitted to Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC), UK.