Professor Aureo de Paula

Biography

Aureo de Paula received his B.A. and M.Sc. in Economics from Pontificia Universidade Catolica—RJ (Brazil) in 1996 and 2000 respectively, he then went on to complete his M.A. and Ph.D. in Economics at Princeton University in 2002 and 2006.  Prior to joining University College London (UCL), he was an associate professor (with tenure) at the University of Pennsylvania and has been a visiting faculty scholar at Northwestern and Harvard universities. Aureo is an elected Fellow of the Econometric Society and the International Association for Applied Econometrics and a Turing Fellow in 2021/23.  He is an elected member of the Econometric Society Council from 2022 and a director for the Review of Economic Studies.

Professor de Paula is affiliated with the Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice (UK), the Institute for Fiscal Studies (UK), CEPR and several other research groups worldwide. Professor de Paula’s work has been featured in various academic publications and he has been associate editor for various academic journals (The Review of Economic Studies, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Econometrics Journal, Econometric Reviews Journal of Econometrics) and was a managing editor for The Review of Economics Studies. He is co-editor at the Journal of Econometrics and has won the Irving B. Kravis Award for Excellence in Undergraduate Teaching at the University of Pennsylvania and the Faculty Education Award at UCL (joint with Dunli Li). 

• Check out his interview with Euraxess discussing his ERC Starting Grant (2013).
• Get to know your professor with Aureo de Paula
• TribuneDigest, Episode 2: Aureo de Paula on COVID-19 Spending Dynamics and Panic Buying

Research

Aureo is an applied econometrician with strong interests in both methodological questions, like the identification and estimation of multi-agent models, and empirical applications, mostly problems in developing nations and industrial organisation.  His research focuses on the intersection of applied economic theory, econometrics and empirical microeconomics.  

• Find out more about Aureo's reseach in his interview with the Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Global Working Group (HCEO) (2020).
• Read about joint reserach with the Office for National Statistics and The Alan Turing Institure here.

Teaching

Professor de Paula has taught the following modules in the Department. 

• Quantitative Economics and Econometrics (Year 2 B.Sc. course)
• Topics in Applied Econometrics (PhD workshop)
• Big Data Analytics (M.Sc. Finance course)
• Microeconometrics (Year 3 B.Sc course)

Professor de Paula has taught several short courses on “The Econometrics of Networks”, “The Econometrics of Games”, “Peer Effects and Social Interactions” (with Bryan Graham) and on “Topics in Structural Methods” as well as post-graduate courses at the London School of Economics, Fundacao Getulio Vargas and Harvard University.

• Watch: Economic Data and Empirical Methods

In the media

Aureo’s research has been featured in: The Times, The Daily Mail, Economics Observatory, WSJ, News at Princeton, Chicago Booth Review, WSJ, Chicago Booth Review “Lessons from the Great Recession to COVID-19”, UHERO, Hawaii Tribune-Herald, West Hawaii Today, Honolulu Civil Beat, Hawaii News Now and VoxEU.

Publications

• Identification in Simple Binary Outcome Panel Data Models (with Bo Honoré), Econometrics Journal, 24(2), May, 2021, pp.C78-C93. 
• Preparing for a Pandemic: Spending Dynamics and Panic Buying During the COVID-19 First Wave (with Martin O’Connell and Kate Smith), Fiscal Studies, 42(2), 2021, pp.249-264.
• The Informativeness of Estimation Moments (with Bo Honoré and Thomas Jorgensen), Journal of Applied Econometrics, 35(7), November/December 2020, pp.797-813. (Lead Article)
• Econometric Models of Network Formation, Annual Review of Economics, 12, August 2020 (pp.775-799).
• The Econometric Analysis of Network Data (book co-edited with Bryan Graham) (Academic Press/Elsevier), 2020. 
• VOG: Using Volcanic Eruptions to Estimate the Health Costs of Particulates (with Tim Halliday and John Lynham) Economic Journal, 129 (620), May 2019 (pp.1782-1816).
• Identifying Preferences in Networks with Bounded Degree (with Seth Richards-Shubik and Elie Tamer), Econometrica, 86 (1), January 2018 (pp.263-288). 
• Econometrics of Network Models, In B. Honore, A. Pakes, M. Piazzesi and L. Samuelson (Eds.), Advances in Economics and Econometrics: Theory and Applications: Eleventh World Congress (Econometric Society Monographs, pp.268-323), 2017. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Erratum
• Identification and Estimation of Preference Distributions when Voters are Ideological (with Antonio Merlo), Review of Economic Studies, 84 (3), 2017 (pp. 2138-2168). 
• How Beliefs about HIV Affect Risky Behaviors: Evidence from Malawi (with Gil Shapira and Petra Todd), Journal of Applied Econometrics, September/October 2014, 29 (6), (pp. 944-964).
• Econometric Analysis of Games with Multiple Equilibria, Annual Review of Economics, 5, January 2013 (pp.107-131).
• Inference of Signs of Interaction Effects in Simultaneous Games with Incomplete Information (with Xun Tang), Econometrica, 80 (1), January 2012 (pp.143-172)
• Value Added Taxes, Chain Effects and Informality (with Jose A. Scheinkman), American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2, October 2010 (pp.195-221)
• Interdependent Durations (with Bo E. Honore), Review of Economic Studies, 77(3), July 2010 (pp.1138–1163)
• Inference in a Synchronization Game with Social Interactions, Journal of Econometrics, 148(1), January 2009 (pp.56-71)
• Conditional Moments and Independence, The American Statistician, 62(3), August 2008 (pp.219-221)