A prospect for the future
How will Dutch society look in ten or twenty years from now? Will the share of the immigrant population further increase? Will the education difference between native Dutch and immigrant students disappear? Will immigrants be employed in better and better paid jobs? Will the norms and values of the immigrant groups be influenced by the modernisation of Dutch society? These are all relevant questions for a multicultural society in crisis. There are of course many different future scenarios possible, but according to most researchers the future for the multicultural Netherlands is moderately optimistic.
It is generally accepted that the number of immigrants in the Netherlands will continue to rise. Reasons are the arrival of new immigrants and the higher birth rate of immigrants than the native Dutch population. It follows that by 2015 14% of the population will be of immigrant origin, against 8% in 2000.
Future prospect: number of immigrants
Year
Number immigrants (men and women)
2010
5 475 426
2020
5 521 954
2030
5 567 681
2040
5 612 550
2050
5 656 626
It is further expected that the education difference between immigrant students and their native Dutch peers will slowly but steadily disappear, mainly because young immigrants are becoming increasingly aware of the fact that (a good) education can offer them a better future. This catching-up process will take time and it is expected that equality in education will be achieved by the fourth generation.
Better education (often) means better job prospects. It is also assumed that more immigrant women will enter the labour market. Thus, the income of the average immigrant family will increase and they will become less dependent on benefits. A less positive prospect is that immigrants with few or no qualifications will continue to experience problems on the labour market as the number of jobs in these sectors is limited.
It is further expected that the social and cultural differences between immigrant groups and native Dutch people will become much less pronounced. Better education will play a role but also emancipation of women. Women will become increasingly more important in the integration process of immigrants in Dutch society.
The contacts between native Dutch and immigrant groups will increase. It is assumed that more immigrants will join the middle class and move out of the city to give colour to the so-called 'white' suburban residential areas.
The future prospects for the Dutch multicultural society are far from negative and pessimistic. Much will of course depend on the future immigrant policies of the Dutch government.
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