SHAPES Pakistan: Structural Heat Adaptation and Education Setting

Overview

SHAPES is a multi-year research project evaluating the effectiveness of structural adaptations for extreme heat in Pakistan, implemented across urban and rural sites in Karachi and Sindh Province. SHAPES focuses on the potential effectiveness of various low-cost, high-impact, building-scale measures including lightweight, locally sourced shading (bamboo frames with fabric), lime-based mortars, solar-reflective paints, building renders, added ventilation, shade structures, selective planting where feasible, and small solar PV installations to maintain essential fans and lighting during grid outages, delivered as part of wider community-led action.

About the Research

Pakistan is facing significant challenges with respect to climate change including increasing average temperatures and more frequent, intense heatwaves against the backdrop of rapid urbanisation. These trends are already translating into health impacts: higher rates of heat-related illness (heat exhaustion and heat stroke), dehydration and renal stress; exacerbations of cardiovascular and respiratory disease alongside impaired sleep and mental health. Pregnant women, infants, older adults and people with chronic conditions face the greatest risk, with extreme heat linked to adverse pregnancy outcomes.

These interventions are being evaluated as part of two cluster-randomised controlled trials (one urban, one rural) led by Aga Khan University in collaboration with the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and the Bartlett School of Architecture, UCL. The trials evaluate clinical effectiveness with a primary outcome of heat-related illness, and secondary outcomes including indoor temperature and thermal comfort, personal exposure and physiology, service use and maternal health outcomes. In dense urban settlements, common construction typologies provide limited shading or cross-ventilation while storing heat into the night. In rural areas, thin roof assemblies and sparse services intensify daytime peaks and disrupt recovery. Intermittent power and water supply, crowded housing and air pollution amplify exposure and limit access to effective cooling.

Survey and data collection include the use of drone thermography and LiDAR-based building measurements, together with parametric thermal modelling and rapid household suitability surveys using images, video and questionnaires. A custom data platform has been developed to organise and analyse high-volume survey information for informal housing, supporting site-specific and building-specific proposals that can be deployed at low cost and enabling community-led decision-making about where and how to install interventions. Measuring at dwelling and neighbourhood scales makes it possible to identify local heat-island patterns and to assess neighbourhood-scale approaches to reducing urban heat accumulation.

SHAPES aims to generate scalable, evidence-based strategies for heat resilience that integrate local knowledge, vernacular design, and public health priorities. The results aim to inform policy and infrastructure development to protect vulnerable communities from rising temperatures in Pakistan and comparable low-resource settings globally.

Image: Illustration from SHAPES exploring adaptations for extreme heat in Rural Sindh Province, Pakistan (Joseph Augustin and Christopher Burman)