Policy and Implementation for Climate & Health Equity (PAICE)

Policy and Implementation for Climate & Health Equity (PAICE) is a collaborative research effort between University College London (UCL) and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), in partnership with the UK Climate Change Committee (CCC) and the Greater London Authority (GLA). With a transdisciplinary approach underpinning its research, PAICE is:

Engaging with stakeholders to develop shared priorities, a programme theory and linked monitoring and evaluation plan.
Working with the CCC and GLA to analyse policy opportunities using system dynamics.
Developing models to carry out cross-sectoral impact assessment. By considering connections between climate and health, the project evaluates potential effects on population health, health equity, and greenhouse gas emissions.
Applying findings to the CCC mitigation and adaptation monitoring frameworks.
Continually evaluating the project processes and objectives to improve and inform our activities and provide accurate advice to UK decision makers in a fast-moving policy landscape.

Through these activities, PAICE will help deliver informed climate action that promotes a healthy and equitable future.

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Project areas

Shared vision

Skyline of London Southbank as the sun sets catching an atmospheric glow behind the buildings.

As a collective, we are working together to understand how our research might achieve its desired effects. This process begins with understanding different perspectives so that we can bring them together in the form of a programme theory. It is a starting point for establishing a shared understanding of PAICE, our objectives and the research approach we are taking. This shared understanding is central to effective collaboration and decision-making.

Systems analysis

London bus seats catching the sun on their distinctive yellow handles.

We are developing a systems perspective regarding climate policy measures using participatory system dynamics and systems thinking. Recognizing the complexity of climate change interventions and their health impacts, PAICE leverages both quantitative system dynamics simulation modelling and systems thinking to address the multifaceted nature of these challenges. Focusing on the Climate Change Committee (CCC) monitoring framework, we are : (i) analysing policy measures in the housing, energy, food and transport sectors and their interdependencies to maximise health benefits; (ii) undertaking participatory research to co-design key policy actions and identify enablers of and barriers to implementation with behavioural insights.

Modelling

Policies aimed at achieving Net Zero in the UK will have a complex range of effects on people’s health. We are assessing these health impacts, along with the associated reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, by building models of the impacts of policy measures in the energy, housing, transport and food sectors. The cross-sector impacts on health and health inequalities are being estimated using a new ‘synthetic population’ health modelling framework. The work will provide new evidence to help guide UK Net Zero policies to maximise health benefits and avoid unintended negative consequences.

Monitoring and refinement

Planet earth's cities lighting up the sky from space

The CCC monitoring framework uses indicators to track the UK’s progress in reducing its greenhouse gas emissions. We are working to integrate metrics and indicators for health and health equity within the existing set of indicators. This would allow tracking of how health and wellbeing in the UK are being affected by current and planned Net Zero policy measures. Our work will also help to assess whether policies and actions are having their intended impact, and suggest adjustments and additions to policies to better capitalise on the benefits of well-designed climate action.

Programme evaluation

Numbers on an excel spreadsheet up-close and partially in focus

The PAICE programme will use evaluation and reflection to make informed decisions during its design and delivery. Our programme theory (see Shared Vision) will guide our evaluation and help us track progress. By taking an evaluation approach that is embedded into the project and using participatory methods, we aim to improve and adapt our project. An evaluation group will coordinate activities, review information, and suggest improvements. Our focus will be on how different expertise and knowledge can effectively work together and solve cross-sector challenges and influence policy making. We will share lessons learned and recommendations with G7 partners.

Outputs

Davies, M. et al. (2025) The PAICE project: Integrating health and health equity into UK climate change policy, Protocol Paper, Sustainability Science (submitted).

Moore, G. et al. (2025) Evaluating transdisciplinary research: insights from climate and health research' (in progress)

Osrin, D. et al. (2025). Transdisciplinary research for climate and health: a case study in programme theory development (in progress)

Petrou, G. et al. (2025) What are the costs and benefits of energy efficiency and overheating adaptation measures in UK homes? (in progress)

Petrou G. Exploring the impact of sensor placement in quantifying indoor air pollutant exposure in UK homes. Presentated at: 2024 Clean Air Conference; 2-3 October 2024. Birmingham, UK.

Simpson, C. et al. (2024) Resilience of care homes to overheating. Presented at: 4th UK National Climate Impacts Meeting; 5-6 September 2024. Newcastle upon Tyne, UK.