Rethinking infrastructure design from component failure to systemic resilience

Professor Stergios Mitoulis from The Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction (BSSC) at UCL has co-authored an international study published in Nature Communications, developing a resilience-based design framework that challenges conventional approaches to the design and management of critical infrastructure within interconnected infrastructure systems.

Co-written by Sam Dulin, Alexandre Bredikhin, Eric Treyz, Billy Leung, Jeffrey Dykes, Owen Karpeles, Shreeya Gurav, Alex Karhunen and Igor Linkov; the research used the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore as a case study to illustrate how the failure of a single structure can set off chain reactions, disrupting transport networks, supply chains, and regional economies. Through advanced modelling with the REMI TranSight platform, the team quantified the wider economic consequences, projecting substantial losses in GDP, employment, and income. In severe scenarios, the study found that full recovery could take until 2040.

The findings urge a shift in focus from traditional risk-based design to resilience-based planning, providing policymakers and infrastructure managers with new tools to anticipate and mitigate systemic impacts. The work was the result of close international collaboration, bringing together experts from the US Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Credere Associates, the US Army Corps of Engineers, and Regional Economic Models Inc.

By highlighting the societal and economic costs of infrastructure failures, the study underscores BSSC’s role in pioneering research on resilience and UCL’s wider commitment to addressing global challenges through interdisciplinary action. The evidence generated provides decision-makers with a framework to strengthen policy, guide investments, and update design standards, ultimately supporting more sustainable and resilient infrastructure worldwide.

Prof. Mitoulis said: “Critical infrastructure should be designed and evaluated not only for structural integrity but also for infrastructure geo-economic importance and potential impact of prolonged recovery within interconnected systems.”