This working paper is part of the UCL Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose’s (UCL IIPP) publication series.
Explore more working papers and policy reports here.
UCL Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose (IIPP) Working Paper Series: IIPP WP 2020-07
Authors
- Simon Sharpe | Visiting Policy Fellow, UCL Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose
- Timothy Lenton | Director, Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter
Reference
Sharpe, S. and Lenton, T. (2020). Upward-scaling tipping cascades to meet climate goals: Plausible grounds for hope. UCL Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose, Working Paper Series (IIPP WP 2020-07). Available at: https://www.ucl.ac.uk/bartlett/public-purpose/wp2020-07
Abstract
Limiting global warming to well below 2°C requires a dramatic acceleration of decarbonisation to reduce net anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions to zero by mid-century. In complex systems – including human societies – tipping points can occur, in which a small perturbation transforms a system. Crucially, activating one tipping point can increase the likelihood of triggering another at a larger scale, and so on. Here we show how such upward-scaling tipping cascades could accelerate progress in tackling climate change. We focus on two sectors – light road transport and power – where tipping points have already been triggered by policy interventions at individual nation scales. We show how positive-sum cooperation, between small coalitions of jurisdictions and their policymakers, could lead to global changes in the economy and emissions.
This working paper is part of the UCL Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose’s (UCL IIPP) publication series.
Explore more working papers and policy reports here.