Dr Sarah Wise, Associate Professor at the Bartlett Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis (CASA), is leading a new research project exploring how the NHS Blood and Transplant service (NHSBT) could be affected by climate-related disruption, including heatwaves and flooding.
The project, Strengthening healthcare resilience to climate extremes: a spatial modelling framework, is one of seven projects funded through the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Climate Change and Health Development Awards, which distributed around £700,000 in January 2026.
The research team includes Dr Dimitra Salmanidou and Emily Dubrovska (UCL Advanced Research Computing Centre), Dr Nicola Moretti (the Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction) and Tom Cowdrey, Head of Business Continuity at NHSBT.
Modelling the blood supply under pressure
The blood service is a complex, spatially distributed network with many interlinking parts. It involves transporting, processing and storing temperature-sensitive human biological material, while relying entirely on volunteer donors to meet the blood type-specific needs of patients, whether for acute or long-term conditions. Issues with transport or thermal control can disrupt this finely coordinated system rapidly.
Extreme weather events such as heatwaves and flooding add significant pressure. The team will develop an agent-based model to map how different parts of the network interact and where the system is most vulnerable to climate-related disruption. The aim is to create a digital tool to help NHSBT plan for emergencies and ensure patients receive blood when they need it.
The research will explore a range of questions: whether processing centres should be prioritised across a wider geographical area; whether specific patient groups are likely to be disproportionately affected; and whether cooling chain infrastructure should be hardened or whether more agile load balancing approaches would be more effective. The goal is to identify where the system is likely to experience pressure and how that risk could be proactively mitigated.
Photo by Adam Mills on Unsplash
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