UCL research shows that new oil and gas fields licenses in the UK would break the Paris climate deal

New research from the UCL Energy Institute, UCL Department of Political Science and UCL Policy Lab has urged the UK Government not just to stop licensing new oil and gas exploration, but to withdraw or refuse development consent for potential oil and gas fields that have already been licensed. This includes the controversial Rosebank and Jackdaw oilfields, whose previous approvals were deemed unlawful by a Scottish court in January this year (more on that below).

Lead author, Greg Muttitt (UCL Energy Institute) said: 

Climate impacts are already threatening people’s homes, our farming and our economy, so reducing emissions is now urgent. We’ve brought together the peer-reviewed scientific literature on oil and gas, which sends a clear message: there’s no room for new fields to be opened. When you’re in a hole, you have to stop digging.

For the report, the researchers analysed the latest scientific evidence and literature on the climate implications of new oil and gas extraction projects. The report is comprehensive, drawing upon the authors' own recent, peer-reviewed research papers published in leading academic journals including Science and Nature, as well as hundreds of other peer-reviewed studies, reports and datasets.

They found that if the world burns all the oil and gas in existing fields, the resulting carbon dioxide emissions would warm the planet in excess of the 1.5°C limit set in the Paris Climate Agreement. Any new oil and gas fields would only make that global heating worse, taking us further into climate danger.

The latest estimate of the world’s 'committed emissions' – the total amount of carbon dioxide emissions created by burning the fossil fuels to be extracted from oil and gas fields that are currently operating or under development – would amount to a massive 469 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide. This is approximately three times the amount of carbon dioxide needed to push the planet past 1.5°C of warming.

The research team have stressed that the timing of the study is important because the UK Government is facing at least two significant decisions about new oil and gas fields in the North Sea: how to implement its policy of ending new exploration licensing; and whether to re-approve development of those Rosebank and Jackdaw fields that were deemed unlawful.

The usual UK process for the full development of a new oil field has two stages. First, companies receive an award of a license that gives them the right to explore for oil and gas in an area. Secondly, if a field is discovered, the company can then apply for a development consent to begin to extract oil and gas from the field.

Right now there are two (aforementioned) high profile fields that have been licensed and explored but have not yet received development consents: the large Rosebank field west of the Shetland Islands, and the smaller Jackdaw field east of Aberdeen. A court ruling in January 2025 set aside the previously issued development consents for these fields, finding that the decisions to grant consent unlawfully failed to consider the climate impacts of consuming the fuels produced from these fields. This means that the Government has to look at those decisions again, this time factoring in the climate impacts of the greenhouse gas emissions that will result when oil and gas at the fields is 'combusted', or burnt off.

Co-author Dr Fergus Green (UCL Political Science) noted: 

Our report lays out the evidential basis for rejecting new field development consents on climate grounds. More broadly, this is a real chance for the UK Government to show world leadership in an important aspect of climate action. The UK has long been recognised as an influential climate leader. Ending new licences and consents for oil and gas exploration and production would send a powerful signal to the rest of the world about the need to stop expanding fossil fuel production.

Co-author Professor Steve Pye (UCL Energy Institute) said: 

The planet has a limited remaining carbon budget and oil and gas production from existing fields is already likely to exceed this limit. It’s critical that that in order to meet climate goals under the Paris Agreement, no new oil and gas fields should be permitted. The UK has the opportunity to further demonstrate its role as a global climate leader by restricting new production while ensuring a just transition for the oil and gas sector in the UK.

The researchers went beyond looking at the current situation, pointing out that on a principled basis the government shouldn't really be wasting time and resources on further development of oil and gas fields - it should be be following the rest of the world and transitioning the UK to clean energy options. The research makes the case that, as the world turns away from fossil fuels, new oil and gas fields run the risk of becoming 'stranded assets', or investments that fail to achieve their expected commercial returns, i.e. not just a harm to the climate, but also a waste of money. That being so, the researchers not, why not change direction?

The 2015 Paris Climate Agreement was signed by nearly 200 governments in 2015 and it included a commitment to keep the rise in global temperatures 'well below' 2°C compared to pre-industrial times, and an agreement that the signatory countries would try to limit this global temperature rise to 1.5°C. The 1.5°C target is important because even a small difference in temperature can significantly worsen the impacts of climate change, whereas keeping the rise to that agreed 1.5°C target should keep the risks and costs that are associated with even higher warming at a more tolerable level.

Links

• Learn more about the research of lead author Gregg Muttitt.
• Learn more about the research of co-author Steve Pye.
• Learn more about the research of co-author Fergus Green.
• Explore other publications from the UCL Energy Institute.