Working from home and the future of energy
An investigation into domestic energy usage during lockdown reveals how demand spread throughout the day, with potentially positive implications for the drive to net zero.
When the pandemic began, our research team at The Bartlett School of Environment, Energy and Resources wanted to understand how lockdowns and other measures were affecting energy use at home. We also wanted to know what changes to energy consumption – if any – might persist in a post-pandemic world. These are important issues in themselves, but they also have implications for the UK’s net zero target strategy. To answer these questions, the team used half-hourly gas and electricity data, surveys, weather data and information from Energy Performance Certificates.
The situation seems straightforward. In the UK, the first lockdown started in March 2020, when everybody but key workers had to work from home. Non-essential shops were closed, a stay-at-home order was imposed, and schools and nurseries were shut to all children but those from key workers. Hence, a likely consequence would be an increased usage of energy in the home and a decrease in national demand. Indeed, national electricity demand dropped quickly when lockdown measures were introduced. For example, in February 2020, the demand for electricity in China dropped by 13%, in Italy by about 28% in March and April 2020, and in the UK, by around 12% for the same period.
Our investigation explored how this played out domestically. The project which brought together 18 researchers, from PhD students to professors, with expertise in energy demand, mathematics, physics, psychology, data science and political science, wanted to examine this change at a more granular level. The initial survey asked questions about energy use in homes during the first national lockdown that started in March 2020.
Surprisingly perhaps, data from 1000 respondents showed that heating behaviours did not substantially change during lockdown, although this could be because the first lockdown occurred during an exceptionally warm Spring. Appliance use, however, did change. The use of televisions and computing equipment both increased and spread throughout the day. The technologies that will hopefully help us move to net zero, such as heat pumps, work better with constant use so this information is incredibly useful.
The survey was supported by an examination of data from smart meters. A preliminary analysis of this electricity data supports these self-reported findings. In a pre-lockdown world, electricity had a morning peak and an evening peak with a pronounced dip in the middle: people got up, had breakfast, got ready for work and then left and came back in the evening. During lockdown, daytime consumption stayed higher with an additional small peak around lunch time. As controlling domestic energy consumption is a key aspect of a move to net zero, understanding how much usage could change is also important.
This study indicates it would be an oversimplification to assume that electricity and gas use have increased in all homes because of stay-at-home-orders. As Dr Gesche Huebner, who led the analysis of the survey, said: “We need to be careful not to generalise findings; many people already stayed at home before the pandemic and some continued to work as normal through the lockdown.”
In addition, there are external factors not directly linked to lockdown that need to be considered. The analysis of gas consumption – the fuel predominantly used for heating and responsible for most carbon emissions from homes – proves difficult. “The first lockdown was extremely sunny and comparatively warm, so it is difficult to find a good comparison period,” explains Dr Ellen Webborn, who is analysing the gas consumption data.
The team will be continuing with their analysis. The project started in April 2020 and was jointly-funded by The Smart Energy Research Lab (SERL) and the Centre for Research into Energy Demand Solutions (CREDS), producing a preprint paper, published in July 2021. The team have since been awarded an additional £209K from CREDS to extend the project to December 2022, so they can now focus on how changes in domestic energy consumption are sustained throughout, and after, the pandemic. The researchers will additionally triangulate the data from 100,000 individual boilers across the UK with the half-hourly energy and survey data. This will be complemented by an analysis of how the use of the building stock is changing post-pandemic e.g. the increase in hybrid working in offices and homes.
What can we say about the implications of Covid-19 for net zero at this point? Prof Tadj Oreszczyn, UCL Principal Investigator of both SERL and CREDS says: “Some zero carbon key technologies, like heat pumps, perform better when providing continuous heating. Working from home and the associated increased need for continuous heating might promote the uptake of heat pumps and reduce carbon emissions from homes substantially.”
Research team
Dr Gesche Huebner
Lecturer in Sustainable and Healthy Built Environments, Bartlett School Env, Energy & Resources
Simon Elam
Principal Research Associate, Bartlett School Env, Energy & Resources and Director, Smart Energy Research Lab (SERL)
Prof Tadj Oreszczyn
Professor of Energy and Environment, Bartlett School Env, Energy & Resources
Dr Ellen Webborn
Senior Research Fellow in Data Science & End Use Energy Demand, Bartlett School Env, Energy & Resources
Dr Eoghan Mckenna
Senior Research Associate, Bartlett School Env, Energy & Resources
Dr Jessica Few
Research Fellow in Data Science and End Use Energy Demand, Bartlett School Env, Energy & Resources
Dr Frances Hollick
Research Fellow in Physical Characterisation of Buildings, Bartlett School Env, Energy & Resources
Dr Martin Pullinger
Senior Research Fellow in Data Science and End Use Energy, UCL Energy Institute
Dr Jose Luis Ramirez-Mendiola
Postdoctoral Research Fellow on Flexibility in Energy Demand, University of Reading
Kentaro Mayr
Doctoral Researcher, UCL Energy Institute
Nicole Watson
Doctoral Researcher, UCL Energy Institute
Dr Virginia Gori
Senior Research Fellow, Bartlett School Env, Energy & Resources
Dr Cliff Elwell
Associate Professor, Bartlett School Env, Energy & Resources
Mr Daniel Godoy Shimizu
Research Assistant, Bartlett School Env, Energy & Resources
Mr Dominic Humphrey
Research Fellow in Building Stock and Energy Modelling, Bartlett School Env, Energy & Resources
Dr Peter Mallaburn
Principal Research Associate, Bartlett School Env, Energy & Resources
Prof Paul Ruyssevelt
Chair of Energy & Building Performance, Bartlett School Env, Energy & Resources
Dr Kenan Direk
Data Management Group Lead, MRC Unit for Lifelong Health and Ageing at UCL