Keeping fossil fuels in the ground: the transition to a net-zero economy

Researchers from the UCL Institute for Sustainable Resources at The Bartlett, are inspiring policy change after establishing what proportion of fossil fuels need to stay in the ground.

Our global energy system is dominated by fossil fuels. Coal, oil and fossil methane gas (natural gas) accounted for around 80% of primary energy consumption and 83% of anthropogenic CO2 emissions in 2019. 

Since it was set up in 2011, the UCL Institute for Sustainable Resources (ISR) has provided interdisciplinary research on the sustainable use of natural resources, to support the development of viable energy systems. 

As part of this work, UCL researchers Dr Christophe McGlade and Professor Paul Ekins established in 2015 what proportion of coal, oil and gas reserves need to stay in the ground, to keep global warming to 2oC. In 2021 the work was updated for the 1.5oC target. 

Using The Bartlett-designed TIMES Integrated Assessment Model, this later study found that for a 50% probability of keeping to within 1.5oC by 2050, nearly 60% of oil and fossil methane gas reserves and 90% of current coal reserves need to remain unused.

The 2015 work was central to The Guardian’s ‘Keep it in the Ground’ campaign, which was reinforced by the 2021 study, influencing how investors view climate risk, and adding strength and authority to the fight to limit global warming. 

Since the campaign’s launch, the Guardian estimates that institutions worth $2.6 trillion have pulled investments out of fossil fuels, including the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and BP.

The research has also inspired policy change. In 2016, the Scottish government cited the Bartlett research in a decision to ban unconventional underground coal gasification.

In Australia, the research provided important evidence that prevented the construction of a coal mine, stopping carbon emissions estimated at more than 38 million tonnes.

The 2021 study has also underpinned multiple NGO campaigns and been cited by the UK Government’s independent advisor on climate, the Climate Change Committee, in their recommendations on the future of North Sea oil and gas extraction. 

By changing how investors, companies and governments understand the financial impacts of climate change, ISR research is contributing to a global revaluation of assets, divestment, policy, and legal challenges to further fossil fuel development.

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Further resources

• Keeping fossil fuels in the ground: identifying unburnable fossil fuels
• How much of the world's fossil fuel reserves can we afford to burn?
• Energy system transitions to achieve net-zero
• UCL Institute for Sustainable Resources

References

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