The Bartlett Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis


Tyndall Project: Land Use Transport Modelling

CASA is involved in developing land use transportation models as part of an integrated assessment of the impact of climate change in the Thames Gateway area of South East England.

This is part of the Cities Theme in the current research programme of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change. Our project involves various tools which are being developed in the Universities of Leeds, Cambridge, Newcastle and Loughborough and Manchester and these are being stitched together to scale down global impacts of climate change to the city scale.

The focus of this project is on assessing the spatial impacts of greenhouse gases on air pollution and on flooding at the local scale. City wide pollution tools are being developed at Manchester, Leeds and Loughborough and have been piloted in various UK cities while an energy-environment input-output model has been developed at Cambridge for assessing the impact of global change in inter-industry relations, income, and production. We are taking these estimates and scaling them down to the city scale. Our job in CASA is to develop a land use transportation model for Greater London and the Thames Gateway which can accept these higher level estimates and factor these to small areas, so that various flooding and landscape models can then be developed to gauge the impact of the various predictions.

Our model is a traditional aggregate cross-sectional land use transport model but with exogenous and endogenous sectors for every variable. Currently we are assembling the data and programming the model. We are working with GLA Economics to fashion the interface and data and we will enable the model to be used to generate future scenarios for population and employment distribution in London. The model will then be embedded in GIS so that it can be used routinely and easily.


cities climate change air pollution