The Post-Soviet Brief is the analysis blog of the SSEES Post-Soviet Press Group. The goal of the Post-Soviet Brief (“the Brief”, for short) is to provide short, engaging analyses from SSEES academics and students on interesting developments across the region. This analysis is aimed at a range of audiences, including policymakers, journalists, and academics. Topics range from informal politics and corrupt practices to Crimea, from elections in Central Asia to law and courts in Russia.
New content will be posted on a rolling basis, but notices of new stories will be included in the weekly email from the Post-Soviet Press Group sent out during Terms 1 and 2. If you would like to pitch a story for the Brief, please see instructions on how to do so.
Does 'Bloody January' signal the onset of post- Nazarbayev Kazakhstan?
Dismissing former Kazakh president Nursultan Nazarbayev as 'Chairman of the Security Council', in response to the January 2022 unrest in the country, reflects President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s acknowledgement of citizens’ disaffection with the former 'Leader of the Nation' – but does it also signal the start of the post- Nazarbayev era?
Let him not be mad – why the narrative that Putin has "lost it" is unhelpful and dangerous
In the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, there has been a wide variety of speculation about President Vladimir Putin’s sanity. This is an unhelpful and dangerous part of the coverage, which should be pushed back on by both academics and the media.
Identity crisis – Germany’s Social Democrats and their relationship with Russia
The Ukraine-Russia crisis and its broader impact, including on Nord Stream 2, are the first major test for the new Social Democratic Party-led coalition government in Germany.
Possible US-Russia prisoner exchange?
In 2021, US President Biden and Russian President Putin seemed to entertain a potential exchange of prisoners, possibly involving former American Marines Paul Whelan and Trevor Reed in exchange for Russians Viktor Bout and Konstantin Yaroshenko.
Domestic violence in Russia – is change possible?
Domestic violence is not currently classified as a criminal offence in Russia. Activists have been fighting for this to change – but will the political establishment comply?
Journalism in Russia – what’s left?
The past year has seen a clear crackdown on Russian media outlets, to an extent not witnessed since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Zelensky vs. the oligarchs – where are we now?
This brief picks up from a previous Post-Soviet Brief post, “Ukraine Fights Back?”, published in March 2021. This current article provides an update on the situation and examines what progress President Zelensky has made in his “fight” against Ukrainian oligarchs.
A demographic disaster in Russia... averted?
A demographic crisis has unfolded in Russia over the past three decades. Recently published data indicates the situation is worse than ever.
Crisis in the Caucasus – the return of Mikheil Saakashvili
Former Georgian president, Mikheil Saakashvili, awaits trial following arrest earlier this month after returning from exile in an attempt to galvanise voters against the government in local elections.
Russia to Unveil Most Ambitious Climate Change Strategy Yet
Speaking in Moscow during Russian Energy Week, President Vladimir Putin confirmed earlier reports that Russia will seek to reach carbon neutrality by 2060.
Ukraine fights back?
Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy has vowed to fight back against the oligarchs. Since the start of 2021, his government has taken several measures against oligarchic interests. Is the reform agenda back on track?
How anti social media are the Russian authorities?
Legislatively and rhetorically, the Russian authorities are closing in on foreign social media companies. After recent anti-regime protests fuelled by social media, will this translate into concrete action?
On the battlefield of human rights: Russia and the European Court of Human Rights
With Biden’s administration and the condemnation by international actors of Navalny’s imprisonment, will the ECtHR take a stronger position in dealing with Russia?
Archive
Armenia
As the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh continues, what role has domestic politics played?
Azerbaijan
What explains the latest political repressions in Azerbaijan?
Belarus
Belarus has parliamentary elections on 17 November 2019. What can we expect to see?
Belarus and Russia at the border
As top officials in Russia and Belarus meet to discuss drug trafficking, cracks are clear in the effort to construct a “common migration policy” for the Union State.
Amidst continued political turmoil how does the Astravets plant affect the Belarusian international outlook?
Estonia
The problem of money laundering in Estonia won’t go away. We need to focus on Russia in order to understand why.
Georgia
An impartial Georgian constitution at last?
After heated debate, Georgia has finally passed controversial constitutional amendments. What are the details, and what will be the likely effects?
Kazakhstan
Who really rules Kazakhstan, Nazarbayev or Tokayev?
Tensions with neighbouring Kazakhstan did not disappear after presidential election results were published in Kyrgyzstan. What does this mean for the region and for Russia’s interests in Central Asia?
Kyrgyzstan
The Kyrgyz Supreme Court’s Constitutional Chamber agrees to hear appeal challenging the cancellation of parliamentary elections.
Kyrgyzstan’s regional rivalries often lead to civil unrest, rioting, and regime change. What implications does this have for Central Asia’s “only democracy”?
Music video by Zere Asylbek continues debate about women’s dress in Kyrgyzstan.
Latvia
More news stories coming soon
Lithuania
More news stories coming soon
Moldova
Moldova held parliamentary elections on 24 February 2019. How did political parties do at the ballot box?
Russia
The Norwegian government has accused Russia of hacking into the email system of the Norwegian parliament
As a divisive US election draws to a close, what does a Biden presidency mean for the future of Russia-US relations – and what legacy will Trump’s isolationism leave?
How should we make sense of measures announced by Vladimir Putin to tackle Russia’s ongoing “demographic crisis”?
Who is responsible for bomb hoaxes being made by anonymous telephone calls in Russia?
Military drills in the Black Sea and the harassment of a US Navy destroyer mask a worrying outlook for the Russian Navy.
The start of a new decade heralds the first steps of Russia’s most stringent internet laws to date.
The security challenge of Russia’s concentration of its economic resources in the Arctic leaves the West struggling to respond.
What did Putin say in his 2019 annual Address to the Federal Assembly and how should we make sense of it?
The opening of the inaugural Russia-Africa Economic Forum and Summit in Sochi, Russia, has brought Russia’s search for influence in the region to the interest of the world’s media.
There are few figures capable of uniting Russia’s pro-Kremlin and opposition camps, but Greta Thunberg has more than succeeded.
President Donald Trump announced on Saturday 20 October that the US will unilaterally pull out of the landmark Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty with Russia. What does this mean for US-Russia relations?
Nord Stream 2 will most likely be constructed for three key reasons, but delays in finishing the project are plausible.
“Russia’s “little green men” played a pivotal role in the annexation of Crimea. Is the Kremlin continuing to use similar actors in other places?”
Pre-electoral “thaw” in Russia?
Recent appointments at both regional and federal levels in Russia seem to favour a softer line, with signs of a technocratic agenda in anticipation of the spring 2018 presidential elections.
Russia has once again been accused of interfering in other countries’ politics – this time in the controversial vote on Catalan independence on 1 October. The fact that its repertoire of dirty tricks is now fairly standard is doubly distressing.
The Russian Government has prepared its draft of the federal state budget for 2018-20. Spending battles between ministries will, however, likely continue for the next few months.
Russia’s Invisible Soldiers in Syria
President Putin recently announced Russia’s military withdrawal from Syria, but the continued presence of military contractors means that Russia’s military footprint will not be diminished in Syria for the foreseeable future.
How effective are internet restrictions in Russia – and what is their wider significance?
Resources to stop the pandemic are precious and powerful. If Russia has found one, what will its effect on international relations be?
What do US sanctions mean for the future of Nord Stream 2– and do they represent a litmus test for Western relations with Russia?
Serbia
Serbian president Aleksandar Vučić’s determination to resolve the conflict in Kosovo may result in the worsening of Russia-Serbia relations.
Tajikistan
More news stories coming soon
Turkmenistan
More news stories coming soon
Ukraine
What does the passage of the “anti-Kolomoisky” bill tell us about the oligarch’s influence in Ukrainian politics?
Comedian Volodymyr Zelensky is leading in the Ukrainian presidential election polls.
On 7 January 2019, Ukrainians celebrated a double-holiday: Orthodox Christmas and the independence of the Orthodox Church of Ukraine.
With candidates rallying up for the 2019 presidential election, a united, independent Ukrainian Orthodox Church could prove a well-timed boon in winning the hearts and minds of voters.
Ukraine is already in election year. Both the president and parliament chosen in the tumultuous year of 2014 are due to be reelected in 2019.
The sudden emergence of ‘national militias’, bent on ‘restoring Ukrainian order’ on the streets of Kyiv, has been met with a mixed public response and raises uncomfortable questions for Ukrainian law enforcement.
Despite growing impatience in the West, President Petro Poroshenko continues to wage an undeclared war on the anticorruption sector through rogue legislation and, more recently, fake news.
A recently passed Ukrainian education bill promised to bring Ukraine’s education system in line with international standards. But a contentious clause seen as disadvantaging language minorities has sparked a backlash abroad.
On the edges of the Donbas, the current peace-monitors (the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission) do their limited job. What are the chances for a real peace-keeping mission?
Ukraine’s Sweet Counter-Revolution
The fundamental question that keeps on being asked: can Ukraine really reform? This summer, Ukrainian NGOs have raised the alarm, talking of a ‘sweet counter-revolution’.
Uzbekistan
More news stories coming soon
Other
States in Eastern Europe and the South Caucasus face difficulty vaccinating their citizens against COVID-19 – and the EU is not offering much help.
Contacts
- Email: ssees.pspg@ucl.ac.uk
- Dr Rasmus Nilsson (r.nilsson@ucl.ac.uk)
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