Graph of risk versus score Simple risk model for heart valve surgery

This is the first risk model that predicts in-hospital mortality for aortic and/or mitral heart valve patients with or without concomitant CABG.

Based on a large national database of heart valve patients (N=32,839), this model has been evaluated successfully on patients who had valve surgery during a subsequent time period.

(please note: although it is possible to obtain a risk score of 39, the largest risk score observed in the validation data was only 27)

Factor Category Score
Patient factors
Age-group, years 0
Gender 0
BMI, kg/m2 0
Hypertension 0
Diabetes (help)
Renal failure (help) 0
Preoperative arrhythmias 0
Ejection fraction 0
Surgical factors
Number of prior cardiac operations 0
Surgical priority 0
Valve operation 0
Concomitant tricuspid surgery 0
Concomitant CABG surgery 0
Total risk score 0
Risk of in-hospital death 0

Ambler G, Omar RZ, Royston P, Kinsman R, Keogh BE, Taylor KM. Generic, simple risk stratification model for heart valve surgery. Circulation 2005; 112: 224-31.

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