Graph of risk versus score Simple risk model for heart valve surgery

This is the first risk model that predicts in-hospital mortality for aortic and/or mitral heart valve patients with or without concomitant CABG.

Based on a large national database of heart valve patients (N=32,839), this model has been evaluated successfully on patients who had valve surgery during a subsequent time period.

(please note: although it is possible to obtain a risk score of 39, the largest risk score observed in the validation data was only 27)

We are currently trying to understand how our risk calculator is used in practice. Therefore we would extremely grateful if you could take our two-question survey.

Factor Category Score
Patient factors
Age-group, years 0
Gender 0
BMI, kg/m2 0
Hypertension 0
Diabetes (help)
Renal failure (help) 0
Preoperative arrhythmias 0
Ejection fraction 0
Surgical factors
Number of prior cardiac operations 0
Surgical priority 0
Valve operation 0
Concomitant tricuspid surgery 0
Concomitant CABG surgery 0
Total risk score 0
Risk of in-hospital death 0

Ambler G, Omar RZ, Royston P, Kinsman R, Keogh BE, Taylor KM. Generic, simple risk stratification model for heart valve surgery. Circulation 2005; 112: 224-31.

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