Research Reports
This page contains a list of Research Reports published by the Department of Statistical Science at University College London. The more recent reports are in PDF format and the older reports are generally in PostScript format (zipped).
Research Reports From 2017  
327 
A description of the circumstances surrounding pharmaceutical approvals by the FDA and EMA from 1999 to 2014 made without randomised control trial data 
AJ Hatswell, G Baio and N Freemantle 
326 
A description of economic models constructed for pharmaceuticals granted a marketing authorisation without a randomised controlled trial by the FDA and EMA from 1999 to 2014 
AJ Hatswell, N Freemantle and G Baio 
Research Reports From 2015  
325 
Crossvalidatory extreme value threshold selection and uncertainty with application to ocean storm severity 
PJ Northrop, N Attalides and P Jonathan 
324 
A Unified Modeling Approach to Estimating HIV Prevalence in SubSaharan African Countries 
G Marra, R Radice, T Bärnighausen, SN Wood and ME McGovern 
Research Reports From 2014  
323 
Posterior propriety in objective Bayesian extreme value analyses 
PJ Northrop and N Attalides 
Research Reports From 2013  
322 
Lagrangian Time Series Models for Ocean Surface Drifter Trajectories 
AM Sykulski, SC Olhede, JM Lilly and E Danioux 
321 
Copula Regression Spline Models for Binary Outcomes With Application in Health Care Utilization 
R Radice, G Marra and M Wojtys 
319 
The Whittle Likelihood for ComplexValued Time Series 
AM Sykulski, SC Olhede, JM Lilly and JJ Early 

Research Reports From 2012  
320 
Rejecting an empirical `personbased' formula for funding CCGs in favour of the farming analogue of oneyearahead extrapolation 
M Stone 
318 
Semiparametric estimation of the extremal index using block maxima 
PJ Northrop 
317 
Maximumlikelihood estimation of lithospheric flexural rigidity, initialloading fraction, and load correlation, under isotropy 
FJ Simons and SC Olhede 
316 
Covariance of Replicated Modulated Cyclical Time Series 
SC Olhede and H Ombao 
315 
A Penalized Likelihood Estimation Approach to Semiparametric Sample Selection Binary Response Modelling 
G Marra and R Radice 

Research Reports From 2011  
314 
Estimating a smooth baseline hazard function for the Cox model 
P Royston 
313  Coverage Properties of Confidence Intervals for Generalized Additive Model Components  G Marra and SN Wood 
312  Further Development of BartlettLewis model for fineresolution rainfall  J Kaczmarska 
311  Exploiting strength, discounting weakness: combining information from multiple climate simulators  RE Chandler 
310  Learning the Ambiguity Surface  S Olhede 
Research Reports From 2010  
309  A Flexible Instrumental Variable Approach  G Marra and R Radice 
308  Comparing latent class and dissimilarity based clustering for mixed type variables with application to social stratification  C Hennig and T Liao 
307  External validation and updating of a prognostic survival model  P Royston, MKB Parmar and DG Altman 
306  Modelling spatiallydependent nonstationary extremes with application to hurricaneinduced wave heights  P Northrop and P Jonathan 

Research Reports From 2009  
305  On the Analytic Wavelet Transform  JM Lilly and SC Olhede 
304  Mathematical Models and Reality  a Constructivist Perspective  C Hennig 
303  Withinsubject comparison of changes in a pretestposttest design  C Hennig, D Müllensiefen and J Bargmann 
302  Methods for merging Gaussian mixture components  C Hennig 
301  Spending billions with t, F, R^{2} , RESET and a bootstrap  M Stone 
300  Bivariate Instantaneous Frequency and Bandwidth  JM Lilly and SC Olhede 

Research Reports From 2008  
299  M Stone  
298  Valuing a GasFired Power Plant: a Comparison of Ordinary Linear Models, RegimeSwitching Approaches, and Models with Stochastic Volatility  S Heydari and A Siddiqui 
297  How to Proceed with the Thorium Nuclear Technology: a Real Options Analysis  A Siddiqui and SE Fleten 
296  Risk Analysis of Interruptible Load Contracts  P Rocha and A Siddiqui 
295  A decisiontheoretic framework for the application of costeffectiveness analysis in regulatory processes  G Baio and P Russo 
294  A framework for interpreting climate model outputs  NA Leith and RE Chandler 
293  Estimation of Ambiguity Functions With Limited Spread  H Hindberg and SC Olhede 
292  Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis in Health Economics  G Baio and AP Dawid 
291  Adjusting for patients’ clinical case mix explains variation in general practice prescribing  C O'Sullivan, RZ Omar, I Petersen, A Islam and AF Majeed 
290  Multiscale Inference for HighFrequency Data  A Sykulski, SC Olhede and GA Pavliotis 
289  On the Design of Optimal Analytic /.Wavelets  JM Lilly and SC Olhede 

Research Reports From 2007  
288  Modelling data observed irregularly over space and regularly in time  C DimitriouFakalou 
287  Moments Estimators for MovingAverage Models on Z^{d}  C DimitriouFakalou 
286  Modifed Gaussian Likelihood Estimators for ARMA Models on Z^{d}  C DimitriouFakalou 
285  Transmission Investment Timing and Sizing under Uncertainty  A Siddiqui and H Gupta 
284  Distributed Generation Investment by a Microgrid under Uncertainty  A Siddiqui and C Marnay 
283  Investment and Upgrade in Distributed Generation under Uncertainty  A Siddiqui and K Maribu 
282  Optimal Technology Selection and Operation of Microgrids in Commercial Buildings?  C Marnay, G Venkataramanan, M Stadler, A Siddiqui, R Firestone and B Chandran 
281  ObjectOriented Bayesian Networks for Paternity Cases with Allelic Dependencies  AB Hepler and BS Weir 
280  Measurement error in binary regression  T Fearn, DC Hill and SC Darby 
279  Fundamentals of statistical causality  AP Dawid 
278  On predictive probability matching priors  TJ Sweeting 
277  Point process models of rainfall: Developments for finescale structure  P Cowpertwait, V Isham, and Christian Onof 
276  Some thoughts about the design of loss functions  C Hennig and M Kutlukaya 
275  ObjectOriented Graphical Representations of Complex Patterns of Evidence  AB Hepler, AP Dawid and V Leucari 
274  Estimation across multiple models with application to Bayesian computing and software development  RJ Stevens and TJ Sweeting 
273  Design of Dissimilarity Measures: a New Dissimilarity between Species Distribution Areas?  C Hennig and B Hausdorf 

Research Reports From 2006  
272  Dissolution point and isolation robustness: robustness criteria for general cluster analysis methods  C Hennig 
271  Clusterwise assessment of cluster stability  C Hennig 
270  The game of red and blue revisited: propensities, subjective probabilities, and the goodnessoffit paradox  C Hennig 
269  Counterfactuals, Hypotheticals and Potential Responses: A Philosophical Examination of Statistical Causality  AP Dawid 
268  The geometry of proper scoring rules  AP Dawid 
267 
Fathoming the PCT funding formula with Excel graphics (Updated: 5/5/06) 
M Stone 
266  Asymmetric Separation for Local Independence Graphs  V Didelez 
265  Direct and Indirect Effects of Sequential Treatments  V Didelez, AP Dawid and S Geneletti 
264  Probability and Evidence  J Mortera and AP Dawid 
263  Stochastic Models for Epidemics  V. Isham 

Research Reports From 2005  
262  Identifying the consequences of dynamic treatment strategies  AP Dawid and V Didelez 
261  The Geometry of Decision Theory  AP Dawid and SL Lauritzen 
260  Graphical Models for Composable Finite Markov Processes  V Didelez 
259  Semiparametric Estimation of the Extremal Index using Block Maxima  PJ Northrop 
258  Graphical Models for Marked Point Processes based on Local Independence  V Didelez 
257  Likelihoodbased inference for the ratios of regression coefficients in linear models  M Ghosh, GS Datta, D Kim and TJ Sweeting 
256  Objectoriented Bayesian networks for complex forensic DNA profiling problems  A. P. Dawid, J. Mortera and P. Vicard 
255  Inference for clustered data using the independence loglikelihood  R. E. Chandler and S. Bate 
254  A PCT funding formula for England based on faith may be wasting billions  M. Stone and J. Galbraith 
253  Nonsubjective priors via predictive relative entropy regret  T. J. Sweeting, G. S. Datta and M. Ghosh 
252  Probability Matching Priors  G. S. Datta and T. J. Sweeting 
251  A point process model for rainfall with truncated Gaussian rain cells  P. J. Northrop and T. M. Stone 

Research Reports From 2004  
250  Statistics on Trial  A. P. Dawid 
249  Estimation of Mutation Rates from Paternity Cases Using a Bayesian Network  P. Vicard, A. P. Dawid, J. Mortera and S. L. Lauritzen 
248  Accumulating Evidence of Malfunctioning Government Machinery  M. Stone 
247  Spatialtemporal Rainfall Simulation using Generalized Linear Models  C. Yang, R.E. Chandler, V.S. Isham and H.S. Wheater 
246  Application of a predictive distribution formula to Bayesian computation for incomplete data models  T.J. Sweeting and S. Kharroubi 
245  Adjudication of the Radio 4 Today Programme Speed Tribunal  M. Stone 
244  Statistics and the Law  A. P. Dawid 
243  Probability and Statistics in the Law  A. P. Dawid 
242  How Not to Fund Hospital and Community Health Services in England (and How One Might)  M. Stone and J. Galbraith 
241  On the Implementation of Local Probability Matching Priors for Interest Parameters  T.J. Sweeting 
240  Stochastic and Spatial Dynamics of Nematode Parasites in Farmed Ruminants  S.J. Cornell, V.S. Isham and B.T. Grenfell 

Research Reports From 2003  
239  Accurate Signal Estimation Near Discontinuities  T. R. Downie 
238  Paradox, simple inconsistency, or serious pathology? Comment on `Conditioning as disintegration' by Chang & Pollard  M. Stone, A. P. Dawid and J. V. Zidek 
237  Which Likelihood Ratio? (Comment on "Why the effect of prior odds should accompany the likelihood ratio when reporting DNA evidence", by Ronald Meester and Marjan Sjerps)  A. P. Dawid 
236  Simulation and downscaling models for potential evaporation  C. Yang, R.E. Chandler, V.S. Isham, C. Annoni and H.S. Wheater 
235  Prediction of future migration flows to the UK and Germany (Chapter 6 of Home Office Online Report 25/03, www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/pdfs2/rdsolr2503.pdf): Technical exercise, honest study, or convenient obfuscation?  M. Stone 
234  A Statistical Treatment of Biases Affecting the Estimation of Mutation Rates  P. Vicard and A. P. Dawid 
233  Some new formulae for posterior expectations and Bartlett corrections  T. J. Sweeting and S. A. Kharroubi 
232  On the use of generalized linear models for interpreting climate variability  R. E. Chandler 
231  Demographic explanation of a remarkable enhancement of repopulation hemopoiesis by heterozygous connexin43/45 stem cells seeded on wildtype connexin43 stroma  M. Rosendaal and M. Stone 
230  Collapsibility of graphical CGregression models  V. Didelez and D. Edwards 

Research Reports From 2002  
229  Ultimate extinction of the promiscuous bisexual GaltonWatson metapopulation  Stephen J. Cornell and Valerie S. Isham 
228  Probability, Causality and the Empirical World: A Bayesde FinettiPopperBorel Synthesis (published version)  A.P. Dawid 
227  GLIMCLIM: Generalized Linear Modelling for Daily Climate Time Series  R.E. Chandler s 
226  An objectoriented Bayesian network for estimating mutation rates  A. P. Dawid 
225  Probabilistic Expert Systems for DNA Mixture Profiling  J. Mortera, A. P. Dawid and S. L. Lauritzen 
224  Floods: Some Probabilistic and Statistical Approaches  D.R. Cox, V.S.Isham and P.J.Northrop 
223  Game Theory, Maximum Entropy, Minimum Discrepancy, and Robust Bayesian Decision Theory (published version)  P. D. Grünwald and A. P. Dawid 

Research Reports From 2001  
222  A Bayesian Network in Intensive Care: a fully explanatory model for care evaluation  D. Luciani 
221  Influence diagrams for causal modelling and inference  A. P. Dawid 
220  NonFatherhood or Mutation? A Probabilistic Approach to Parental Exclusion in Paternity Testing  A. Philip Dawid, Julia Mortera and Vincenzo L. Pascali 
219  Bayes's Theorem And Weighing Evidence by Juries  A. P. Dawid 

Research Reports From 2000  
218  Consistency in Misspecified Models  Kostas Skouras and A. Philip Dawid 
217  Statistical modelling of thermal annealing of fission tracks in Durango apatite  G.M. Laslett and R.F. Galbraith 
216  Point estimation for loglinear models where one variable is subject to nonignorable nonresponse  P. S. Clarke 
215  Probabilistic expert systems for forensic inference from genetic markers  A. P. Dawid, J. Mortera, V. L. Pascali and D. van Boxel 
214  Models for macroparasite aggregation: the role of the transmission process  Julian Herbert and Valerie Isham 
213  Causal Inference Using Influence Diagrams: the Problem of Partial Compliance  A. P. Dawid 
212  Separoids: A general framework for conditional independence and irrelevance  A. P. Dawid 
211  Comment on Stockmarr's "Likelihood Ratios for Evaluating DNA Evidence, When the Suspect is Found Through a Database Search"  A. P. Dawid 
210  Compatible Prior Distributions  A. P. Dawid and S. L. Lauritzen 
209  Some variations on variation independence  A. P. Dawid 
208  Questions of efficiency estimation in public services: is the state of the art really "State of The Art"?  M. Stone 
207  Distinguishing dose populations in sediment mixtures: a test of singlegrain optical dating procedures using mixtures of laboratorydosed quartz  R.G. Roberts, R.F. Galbraith, J.M. Olley, G.M. Laslett and H. Yoshida 
206  Estimating the age range of optical dating using single `supergrains' of quartz  H. Yoshida, R.G. Roberts, J. M. Olley, G.M. Laslett, and R.F. Galbraith 
205  Disease surveillance and data collection issues in epidemic modelling  P.J. Solomon and V.S. Isham 
204  Generation of spatially consistent rainfall data  H.S. Wheater, V.S. Isham, C. Onof, R.E. Chandler, P.J. Northrop, P. Guiblin, S.M. Bate, D.R. Cox and D. Koutsoyiannis 

Research Reports From 1999  
203  Model Metaselection  X. de Luna and K. Skouras 
202  The Trouble with Bayes Factors  A.P. Dawid 
201  Alternative mathematics for ion exchange modelling and data analysis  M.Stone 

Research Reports From 1998  
200  Strong consistency in nonlinear stochastic regression models  K. Skouras 
199  Conditional products: an alternative approach to conditional independence  A. P. Dawid and M. Studeny 
198  Simulationbased robust estimation of ARMA models  X. de Luna and M.G. Genton 
197  Early statisticians: Sir Frederick Morton Eden (17661809) and Florence Nightingale (18201910)  M. Stone 
196  A point process model for rainfall with dependent duration and intensity  Anastasia Kakou 
195 
Climate change detection using Generalized Linear Models for rainfall  a case study from the West of Ireland II. Modelling of rainfall amounts on wet days 
Richard E. Chandler and Howard S. Wheater 
194 
Climate change detection using Generalized Linear Models for rainfall  a case study from the West of Ireland I. Preliminary analysis and modelling of rainfall occurrence 
Richard E. Chandler and Howard S. Wheater 
193  Stochastic hostparasite interaction models  Julian Herbert and Valerie Isham 
192  Hierarchical Models for DNA Profiling Using Heterogeneous Databases  A. Philip Dawid and John Pueschel 
191  Influence of light level on the incidence of road casualties and the associated effect of summertime clock changes  M. Hazelton, M. Stone and J. Broughton 

Research Reports From 1997  
190  Bayes factors for variance component models  Donna K. Pauler, Jonathan C. Wakefield and Robert E. Kass 
189  Modelling issues in forensic inference  A.P. Dawid 
188  Causal inference without counterfactuals  A.P. Dawid 
187  A decision theory approach to fitness for pupose in analytical measurement  T. Fearn, S.A. Fisher, M. Thompson and S. Ellison 
186  Spatiotemporal rainfall processes: stochastic models and data analysis  R.E. Chandler, V.S. Isham and P.J. Northrop 
185  The Schwarz Criterion and Related Methods for Normal Linear Models  Donna K. Pauler 
184  Bayesian image analysis and the disaggregation of rainfall  R.E. Chandler, N.G. Mackay, H.S.Wheater and C. Onof 
183  An optimal local bandwidth selector for kernel density estimation  Martin L. Hazelton 
182  Policies for Poverty from an Analytical Aristocrat  Mervyn Stone 
181  Forensic Identification with Imperfect Evidence  A. P. Dawid and J. Mortera 
180  Absolute continuity of Markov chains  Kostas Skouras 
179  Bayesian updating and the timepreference reversal effect  Peter D. Sozou 
178  Statistical Modelling and Analysis of Spatial Patterns  D.R. Cox, V.S. Isham and Paul Northrop 
177  A clustered spatialtemporal model of rainfall  Paul Northrop 
176  Spatialtemporal rainfall fields: modelling and statistical aspects  H.S. Wheater, V.S. Isham, D.R. Cox, R.E. Chandler, A. Kakou, P.J. Northrop, L.Oh, C. Onof and I. RodriguezIturbe 
Research Reports From 1996  
175  Nonconjugate Bayesian regression on many variables  B.Q. Fang and A.P. Dawid 
174  Stochastic spatialtemporal models for rain  D.R. Cox and V.S. Isham 
173  A note on analytical solutions to the Whittle likelihood equation  Richard E. Chandler 
172  Critique of E.T.Jaynes's "Paradoxes of Probability Theory"  A.P.Dawid, M.Stone and J.V.Zidek 
171  Prequential Probability: Principles and Properties  A.P. Dawid and V.G. Vovk 
170  Using a graphical method to take account of dependencies when evaluating complicated patterns of evidence  A.P. Dawid and I.W. Evett 
169  Detecting adulteratism of Basmati rice by the analysis of mixtures  T. Fearn 
168  Discrimination with many variables  P.J. Brown, T. Fearn and M.S. Haque 
167  Coherent criteria for optimal experimental design  A.P. Dawid and P. Sebastiani 
166  Site 73 in hypervariable region II of the human mitochondrial genome and the origin of European populations.  H.M. WilkinsonHerbots 
165  The structured coalescent  H.M. Herbots 
164  The dependence of measures of subpopulation differentiation on population structure and mutation rate (Part II)  H.M. Herbots 
163  The dependence of measures of subpopulation differentiation on population structure and mutation rate (Part I)  H.M. Herbots 
162  Optimal rates for local bandwidth selection  M. Hazelton 
161  Efficient crossvalidation of reduced rank regression and JCRO  R.J. Brooks and M. Stone 
160  On Efficient Point Prediction Systems  K. Skouras and A.P. Dawid 
159  On Efficient Probability Forecasting Systems  K. Skouras and A.P. Dawid 
158  The secondorder spectral analysis of spatialtemporal rainfall models  Richard E. Chandler 
157  Conditional Independence  A. P. Dawid 
Research Reports From 1995  
156  Statistical modelling of thermal annesting of fission tracks  G.M. Laslett and R.F. Galbraith 
155  Analysis of Fission track counts  R.F. Galbraith and G. Laslett 
154  Renewal models and renewaltype equations as Functionals  K. Politis 
153  Connectedness conditions for the convergence of the Gibbs sampler  J.P. Hubert, C.P. Robert and C. Goutis 
152  Standardizing Spectrophotometers  T. Fearn 
151  Comparison of Full Bayes and BayesLeast Squares Criteria for Normal Discrimination  B.Q. Fang and A.P. Dawid 
150  Confidence bounds for the adjustment coefficient  S.M. Pitts, R. Grubel and P. Embrechts 
149  Second derivative functional regression with applications to NIR Spectroscopy  C. Goutis 
148  Spatialtemporal rainfall processes: stochastic models and data analysis  R. Chandler, V. Isham, A. Kakou and P. Northrop 
147  Monte Carlo inference for a model of carbon fibre strength  M. Hazelton 
146  Bandwidth selection for local density estimators  M. Hazelton 
145  Improved Monte Carlo inference for models with additive error  M. Hazelton 
144  Comments on "The roles of conditioning in inference" by N. Reid  A. P. Dawid and C. Goutis 
143  Modelling mixed fission trackages: a cube root truncated normal model  R.F. Galbraith and G.M. Laslett 
142  A spectral method for estimating parameters in rainfall models  Richard E. Chandler 
141  Prequential Analysis  A. P. Dawid 
Research Reports from 1994  
140  Partial least squares regression on smooth factors  C. Goutis and T. Fearn 
139  Proper Measures of Discrepancy Uncertainty and Dependence with Applications to Predictive Experimental Design [revised] [original]  A. P. Dawid 
138  On Compatible priors for Baysian Networks  R. Cowell 
137  Model choice in generalized linear models: a Bayesian approach via KullbackLeibler projections  C. Goutis and C.P. Robert 
136  Elementary Watson! Coherent Analysis of Forensic Evidence  A. P. Dawid and J. Mortera 
135  A comparison of sequential learning methods for incomplete data  R. G. Cowell, A. P. Dawid and P. Sebastiani 
134  Stochastic Models of HostMacroparasite Interaction  Valerie Isham 
133  Distributive Block Structures: Mathematical Properties  A.P. Dawid 
132  Decision networks: A formulation for multistage decision problems.  Robert G. Cowell 
131  A note on nonregular likelihood functions in heterosecdastic regression models.  Adam Crisp and Jim Burridge 
130  The efficient crossvalidation of principal components applied to principal component regression  Bart Mertens, Tom Fearn and Michael Thompson 
Research Reports From 1993  
129  Hybrid Propagation in Junction Trees  A.P. Dawid, U. Kjaerulff and S.L. Lauritzen 
128  Stochastic Models of Precipitation  D.R. Cox and Valerie Isham 
127  Unique redescending t MEstimates for the Linear Regression Model  Adam Crisp and Jim Burridge 
126  Partial Least Squares Algorithm Yields Shrinkage Estimators  Constantinos Goutis 
125  Maximum Likelihood Estimation in the presence of ExtraPoisson Variation  Hassan Johaadien and Constantinos Goutis 
124  Joint Continuum Regression for Multiple Predictands  Rodney Brooks and Mervyn Stone 
123  Taking Prediction Seriously  A.P. Dawid 
122  Estimation in Linear Models using the back Propagation Algorithm  K. Skouras, C. Goutis and M.J. Bramson 
121  Frequentist PostData Inference  Constantinos Goutis and George Casella 
120  Choice among Hypotheses using Estimation Criteria  Constantinos Goutis and Christian P. Robert 
119  DOptimal Designs for Generalised Linear Models with Variance Proportional to the Square of the Mean  Jim Burridge and Paola Sebastiani 
118  Analysing Unreplicated Factorials  Jorge Olguin 
117  KolmogorovSmirnov tests of fit when parameters are estimated from order statistics  M. TaghaviKhonsary 
116  Some applications of radial plots  R.F. Galbraith 
115  The Island Problem: Coherent use of Identification Evidence  A.P. Dawid 
114  Statistical models for mixed ages in fission track analysis  R.F. Galbraith and G.M. Laslett 
113  Assessing Evidence in Multiple Hypotheses  Constantinos Goutis, George Casella and Martin T. Wells 
Research Reports From 1992  
112  Coherent Combination of Experts' Opinions  A.P. Dawid, M.H. DeGroot and J. Mortera 
111  Nonparametric estimation of compound distributions with applications in insurance  Susan M. Pitts 
110  Some applications of the fast Fourier transform algorithm in insurance mathematics  Paul Embrechts, Rudolf Grubel and Susan M. Pitts 
109  Calculating moments of decomposable functions in Bayesian networks  R.G. Cowell 
108  The Dilation Phenomenon in Robust Bayesian Inference by Larry Wasserman and Teddy Seidenfeld  Constantinos Goutis 
107  A note on the uniqueness of Mestimators in robust regression  A. Crisp and Jim Burridge 
106  The analysis of projected fission track lengths  G.M. Laslett and R.F. Galbraith 
105  Flat or Natural? A Note on the Choice of Calibration Samples.  T. Fearn 
104  Selection Paradoxes of Bayesian Inference  A.P. Dawid 
103  Bayesian Analysis in Expert Systems  D.J. Spiegelhalter, A.P. Dawid Steffen L. Lauritzen, Robert G. Cowell 
102  Statistical Aspects of Chaos: A Review  Valerie Isham 
101  A Graphical Method for solving a Decision Analysis problem  Constantinos Goutis 
100  A repeat of the ""Benveniste"" experiment: statistical analysis  Jim Burridge 
99  Relationships between post data accuracy measures.  George Casella and Constantinos Goutis 
98  Nonparametric estimation of the stationary waiting time distribution function for the GI/G/1 queue  Susan M. Pitts 
97  Statistical Aspects of preoperative screening for anaesthetic allergies  Constantinos Goutis 
Research Reports From 1991  
96  Asymptotic property of a Bayesian discrimination problem  B.Q. Fang and A.P. Dawid 
95  Sequential model criticism in probabilistic expert systems  R.G. Cowell and A.P. Dawid, D.J. Spiegelhalter 
94  Shrinking Calibrations  T. Fearn 
93  Graphical Modelling of Data from Whitehall II  Ian White 
92  Stochastic Models for Epidemics with Special Reference to Aids  Valerie Isham 
91  Optimal Designs for Generalized Linear Models  J. Burridge and P. Sebastiani 
90  Bayesian estimation methods for contingency tables.  Constantinos Goutis 
89  Fast retraction of evidence in a probabilistic expert system  R.G. Cowell and A.P. Dawid 
88  Applications of a General Propagation Algorithm for Probabilistic Expert Systems  A.P. Dawid 
87  A Bayesian Expert System for the Analysis of an Adverse Drug Reaction  R.G. Cowell, A.P. Dawid, T. Hutchinson, D.J. Spiegelhalter 
86  BAIES  A Probabilistic Expert System Shell with Qualitative and Quantitative Learning  Robert Cowell 
84  Joint Continuum Regression for Multiple Predictands  Mervyn Stone and Rodney Brooks 
83  Conjugate Bayes Discrimination with Infinitely Many Variables  A.P. Dawid and B.Q. Fang 
82  Prequential Analysis, Stochastic Complexity and Bayesian Inference  A.P. Dawid 
80  Unique and Consistent MEstimators for Linear Models and Symmetry Heavytailed Error Distributions  Jim Burridge 
79  Recovering extrabinomial variation  Constantinos Goutis 
Research Reports From 1990  
78  Increasing the Confidence in Student's t Interval.  Constantinos Goutis and George Casella 
77  A functional approach to the stationary waiting time and idle period distributions of the GI/G/I queue  Rudolf Grübel and Susan M. Pitts 
76  Assessing the variability of stochastic epidemics  Valerie Isham 
75  Generic Organisational Networks for the Analysis of Drug Safety  R.G. Cowell, A.P. Dawid, T.A. Hutchinson, S. Roden and D.J. Spiegelhalter 
74  Foundations of Probability (Article for ""Encyclopaedia of the History and Philosophy of the Mathematical Sciences"")  A.P. Dawid 
73  Lumbricus Terrestris: A Game for Teaching ResourceLimited Statistical Society.  G. Brian Newman 
72  BoxCox Transformations and the Taguchi Method: an Alternative Analysis of a Taguchi Case Study  T. Fearn 
71  An Application of BoxJenkins Methodology to the Control of Gluten Addition in a Flour Mill.  T. Fearn and P.I. Maris 
70  Ranges of Posterior Measures for Some Classes of Priors with Specified Moments  Constantinos Goutis 
69  Probabilistic causality assessment after a suspected adverse drug reaction: a case study in Bayesian network modelling.  David J. Spiegelhalter, A.P. Dawid, Tom A. Hutchinson, R.G. Cowell 
68  Comments on the use of the backprojection method to estimate the incidence of HIV infection and Aids  Valerie Isham 
67  Fisherian Inference in Likelihood and Prequential Frames of Reference  A.P. Dawid 
Research Reports From 1989  
66  Comment on Joshi's ""Counterexample against the likelihood Principle""  A.P. Dawid, T. Fearn and M. Stone 
65  Markov Distributions, Hyper Markov Laws and Meta Markov Models on Decomposable Graphs, with Applications to Bayesian Learning in Expert Systems  A.P. Dawid and S.L. Lauritzen 
64  A Stratified Binomial Marker Model for BoneMarrow Repopulation Experiments  M. Stone and D. Harrison 
Research Reports From 1988  
63  Independence Properties of Directed Markov Fields  S.L. Lauritzen, A.P. Dawid, B.N. Larsen, H.G. Leimer 
62  Continuum Regression: Crossvalidated, Sequentiallyconstructed Prediction embracing Ordinary Least Squares, Partial Least Squares, and Principal Components Regression  M. Stone and R.J. Brooks 
61  Prequential Tests of Model Fit  F. Seillier, T.J. Sweeting and A.P. Dawid 
60  MomentBased Estimating Equations, MeanVariance Relationships and Exponential Dispersion Models  J. Burridge 
Research Reports From 1987  
59  Functional Models, Fiducial Prediction and SemiBayesian Inference  A.P. Dawid 
58  Mathematical Modelling of the Transmission Dynamics of HIV Infection and Aids: A Review  Valerie Isham 
57  On testing the validity of probability forecasts  R.M.L.G. Seillier 
56  The Infinite Regress and its Conjugate Analysis  A.P. Dawid 
55  The Population Genealogy of the InfinitelyMany Neutral Alleles Model  Peter Donnelly and Simon Tavare 
Research Reports From 1986  
54  Notes on Linear Sufficiency in the General Linear Model  M. Stone 
53  Symmetry Analysis of the Mixed Model  A.P. Dawid 
52  Isobolic Determination of Linear and 'RatioLinear' Parameters  M. Stone 
51  A Bayes, SweepOperational Construction for Rao's Unified Theory of Linear Estimation (Short Title: Construction for Unified LeastSquares)  M. Stone and J.L. Wang 
50  Symmetry Models and Hypotheses for Structured Data Layouts  A.P. Dawid 
49  Graphical Display of Estimates having Differing Standard errors  R.F. Galbraith 
48  Meanvariance Relationships, Generalised Linear Models and GLIM  J. Burridge 
47  The difficulty about conjunction  A.P. Dawid 
46  Prequential Data Analysis  A.P. Dawid 
45  InterParticle Correlation in Death Processes with application to Compartmental models.  Frank Ball and Peter Donnelly 
44  Stochastic Monotonicity in a reinforcementdepletion compartmental Urn Model  Peter Donnelly 
Research Reports From 1985  
43  Marked Point Processes and Their Correlation's  Valerie Isham 
42  Prequential Assessment of Discrete Probability Forecasts  Françoise Seillier 
41  Statistical Analysis of C.W. Naeser's Fish Canyon Zircon Data  R.F. Galbraith 
40  Ubles or Blues?  Mervyn Stone 
39  CoordinateFree multivariable statistics: From Halmos to Gauss to Bayes  Mervyn Stone 
38  Asymptotic Inference for Eigenvectors of Covariance and Correlation Matrices  T. Kollo 
37  The Virtual Waiting Time and Related Processes  D.R. Cox and Valerie Isham 
Research Reports From 1984  
36  A Statistical Analysis of some 2players Games  J.Q. Smith 
35  Decomposition and Bayesian analysis of invariant normal linear models.  G. Consonni and A.P. Dawid 
34  Some Characterizations of Stochastic transformations relevant to models for experiments  M. Stone and B. Johnston 
33  Optimal allocation for Bayesian inference about an odds ratio  R.J. Brooks 
Research Reports From 1983  
32  Tomorrow and Tomorrow and Tomorrow … The Prequential Approach to Statistical Theory  A.P. Dawid 
31  Invariant Normal Bayesian Linear Models and Experimental Designs  G. Consonni and A.P. Dawid 
29  CrossValidated Composition Determination in Nuclear Analysis  C.M. Brien and M. Stone 
28  On Jackknife, CrossValidatory and Classical Methods of Estimating a proportion with batches of different sizes.  C.C. Frangos and M. Stone 
27  Statistical Reasoning  M. Stone 
26  Catastrophes in Statistical Models and Decision Theory: A way of Seeing.  J.Q. Smith 
25  A dynamic Forecasting Model for a General Class of Discontinuous Time Series  R.G. Gathercole and J.Q. Smith 
24  Approximate likelihood ratio tests in the analysis of betabinomial data.  R.J. Brooks 
23  VarianceCovariance Modelling for Chromosome Marker Data with Application to Haemopoiesis  M. Stone 
22  Decomposition of Statistical Problems by means of Invariance Mathematical Tools and Results  G. Consonni 
21  On the Relative Efficiency of Censored Reliability Studies  R.J. Brooks 
20  Fitting Generalised Linear Models in the Analysis of Fission Track Counts  R.J. Brooks 
19  On Statistical Estimation in Fission Track Dating  R.F. Galbraith 
18  Exploratory studies of some NonLocal NonLinear Design Criteria  Mervyn Stone and Julie Morris 
Research Reports From 1982  
17  Bivarate Markov Point Processes  Some Approximations  Valerie Isham 
16  Forecasting accident claims for an Assurance Company  J.Q Smith 
15  Point Processes and the Markov Property  Valerie Isham 
14  Objective Probability Forecasts  A.P. Dawid 
13  Probability, Symmetry and Frequency  A.P. Dawid 
12  A Bivariate Spatial Point Process of Ants Nests  R.D. Harkness and Valerie Isham 
11  Statistical Analysis of some Fission Track Counts and Neutron Fluence Measurements.  R.F. Galbraith 
9  Invariance and Independence in Multivariate Distribution Theory  A.P. Dawid 
Research Reports From 1981  
8  Principles of Interactive Forecasting  J.Q. Smith and R.B. Cathercole 
7  Catastrophies and Geometric Sufficiency  J.Q. Smith 
6  Fiducial Probability  M. Stone 
5  A General Statistical Model for Clone/Tissue studies using XChromosome Inactivation Data  M. Stone 
4  Intersubjective Statistical Models  A.P. Dawid 
3  Statistical Inference  A.P. Dawid 
2  Invariant Prior Distributions  A.P. Dawid 
1  The FunctionalModel Basis of Fiducial Inference  A.P. Dawid and M. Stone 