Statistical Science


Research Reports

This page contains a list of Research Reports published by the Department of Statistical Science at University College London.  The more recent reports are in PDF format and the older reports are generally in PostScript format (zipped).

  Research Reports From 2017  
A description of the circumstances surrounding pharmaceutical approvals by the FDA and EMA from 1999 to 2014 made without randomised control trial data
AJ Hatswell, G Baio and N Freemantle
A description of economic models constructed for pharmaceuticals granted a marketing authorisation without a randomised controlled trial by the FDA and EMA from 1999 to 2014
AJ Hatswell, N Freemantle and G Baio
  Research Reports From 2015  
Cross-validatory extreme value threshold selection and uncertainty with application to ocean storm severity
PJ Northrop, N Attalides and P Jonathan
A Unified Modeling Approach to Estimating HIV Prevalence in Sub-Saharan African Countries
G Marra, R Radice, T Bärnighausen, SN Wood and ME McGovern
  Research Reports From 2014  
Posterior propriety in objective Bayesian extreme
value analyses

PJ Northrop and N Attalides
  Research Reports From 2013  
Lagrangian Time Series Models for Ocean Surface Drifter Trajectories
AM Sykulski, SC Olhede, JM Lilly and E Danioux
Copula Regression Spline Models for Binary Outcomes With Application in Health Care Utilization
R Radice, G Marra and M Wojtys
The Whittle Likelihood for Complex-Valued Time Series
AM Sykulski, SC Olhede, JM Lilly and JJ Early

Research Reports From 2012  
Rejecting an empirical `person-based' formula for funding CCGs in favour of the farming analogue of one-year-ahead extrapolation
M Stone
Semiparametric estimation of the extremal index using block maxima
PJ Northrop
Maximum-likelihood estimation of lithospheric flexural rigidity, initial-loading fraction, and load correlation, under isotropy
FJ Simons and SC Olhede
Covariance of Replicated Modulated Cyclical Time

SC Olhede and H Ombao
A Penalized Likelihood Estimation Approach to Semiparametric Sample Selection Binary Response Modelling G Marra and R Radice

Research Reports From 2011  
Estimating a smooth baseline hazard function for the Cox model
P Royston
313  Coverage Properties of Confidence Intervals for Generalized Additive Model Components G Marra and SN Wood
312 Further Development of Bartlett-Lewis model for fine-resolution rainfall J Kaczmarska
311 Exploiting strength, discounting weakness: combining information from multiple climate simulators RE Chandler
310 Learning the Ambiguity Surface S Olhede
  Research Reports From 2010  
309  A Flexible Instrumental Variable Approach G Marra and R Radice
308 Comparing latent class and dissimilarity based clustering for mixed type variables with application to social stratification C Hennig and T Liao
307 External validation and updating of a prognostic survival model P Royston, MKB Parmar and DG Altman
306 Modelling spatially-dependent non-stationary extremes with application to hurricane-induced wave heights P Northrop and P Jonathan

Research Reports From 2009  
305 On the Analytic Wavelet Transform JM Lilly and SC Olhede
304 Mathematical Models and Reality - a Constructivist Perspective C Hennig
303 Within-subject comparison of changes in a pretest-posttest design C Hennig, D Müllensiefen and J Bargmann
302 Methods for merging Gaussian mixture components C Hennig
301 Spending billions with t, F, R2 , RESET and a bootstrap M Stone
300 Bivariate Instantaneous Frequency and Bandwidth JM Lilly and SC Olhede

Research Reports From 2008  

Going to the Pictures: Eigenvector as Fixed Point

[Fig 1] [Fig 2] [Fig 3] [Fig 4]

M Stone
298 Valuing a Gas-Fired Power Plant: a Comparison of Ordinary Linear Models, Regime-Switching Approaches, and Models with Stochastic Volatility S Heydari and A Siddiqui
297 How to Proceed with the Thorium Nuclear Technology: a Real Options Analysis A Siddiqui and S-E Fleten
296 Risk Analysis of Interruptible Load Contracts P Rocha and A Siddiqui
295 A decision-theoretic framework for the application of cost-effectiveness analysis in regulatory processes G Baio and P Russo
294 A framework for interpreting climate model outputs NA Leith and RE Chandler
293 Estimation of Ambiguity Functions With Limited Spread H Hindberg and SC Olhede
292 Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis in Health Economics G Baio and AP Dawid
291 Adjusting for patients’ clinical case mix explains variation in general practice prescribing C O'Sullivan, RZ Omar, I Petersen, A Islam and AF Majeed
290 Multiscale Inference for High-Frequency Data A Sykulski, SC Olhede and GA Pavliotis
289 On the Design of Optimal Analytic /.Wavelets JM Lilly and SC Olhede

Research Reports From 2007  
288 Modelling data observed irregularly over space and regularly in time C Dimitriou-Fakalou
287 Moments Estimators for Moving-Average Models on Zd C Dimitriou-Fakalou
286 Modifed Gaussian Likelihood Estimators for ARMA Models on Zd C Dimitriou-Fakalou
285 Transmission Investment Timing and Sizing under Uncertainty A Siddiqui and H Gupta
284 Distributed Generation Investment by a Microgrid under Uncertainty A Siddiqui and C Marnay
283 Investment and Upgrade in Distributed Generation under Uncertainty A Siddiqui and K Maribu
282 Optimal Technology Selection and Operation of Microgrids in Commercial Buildings? C Marnay, G Venkataramanan, M Stadler, A Siddiqui, R Firestone and B Chandran
281 Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks for Paternity Cases with Allelic Dependencies AB Hepler and BS Weir
280 Measurement error in binary regression T Fearn, DC Hill and SC Darby
279 Fundamentals of statistical causality AP Dawid
278 On predictive probability matching priors TJ Sweeting
277 Point process models of rainfall: Developments for fine-scale structure P Cowpertwait, V Isham, and Christian Onof
276 Some thoughts about the design of loss functions C Hennig and M Kutlukaya
275 Object-Oriented Graphical Representations of Complex Patterns of Evidence AB Hepler, AP Dawid and V Leucari
274 Estimation across multiple models with application to Bayesian computing and software development RJ Stevens and TJ Sweeting
273 Design of Dissimilarity Measures: a New Dissimilarity between Species Distribution Areas? C Hennig and B Hausdorf

Research Reports From 2006  
272 Dissolution point and isolation robustness: robustness criteria for general cluster analysis methods C Hennig
271 Cluster-wise assessment of cluster stability C Hennig
270 The game of red and blue revisited: propensities, subjective probabilities, and the goodness-of-fit paradox C Hennig
269 Counterfactuals, Hypotheticals and Potential Responses: A Philosophical Examination of Statistical Causality AP Dawid
268 The geometry of proper scoring rules AP Dawid

Fathoming the PCT funding formula with Excel graphics (Updated: 5/5/06)

[PCTnamefinder.xls] [PCTgrapher.xls]

M Stone
266 Asymmetric Separation for Local Independence Graphs V Didelez
265 Direct and Indirect Effects of Sequential Treatments V Didelez, AP Dawid and S Geneletti
264 Probability and Evidence J Mortera and AP Dawid
263 Stochastic Models for Epidemics V. Isham

Research Reports From 2005  
262 Identifying the consequences of dynamic treatment strategies AP Dawid and V Didelez
261 The Geometry of Decision Theory AP Dawid and SL Lauritzen
260 Graphical Models for Composable Finite Markov Processes V Didelez
259 Semiparametric Estimation of the Extremal Index using Block Maxima PJ Northrop
258 Graphical Models for Marked Point Processes based on Local Independence V Didelez
257 Likelihood-based inference for the ratios of regression coefficients in linear models M Ghosh, GS Datta, D Kim and TJ Sweeting
256 Object-oriented Bayesian networks for complex forensic DNA profiling problems A. P. Dawid, J. Mortera and P. Vicard
255 Inference for clustered data using the independence log-likelihood R. E. Chandler and S. Bate
254 A PCT funding formula for England based on faith may be wasting billions M. Stone and J. Galbraith
253 Nonsubjective priors via predictive relative entropy regret T. J. Sweeting, G. S. Datta and M. Ghosh
252 Probability Matching Priors G. S. Datta and T. J. Sweeting
251 A point process model for rainfall with truncated Gaussian rain cells P. J. Northrop and T. M. Stone

Research Reports From 2004  
250 Statistics on Trial A. P. Dawid
249 Estimation of Mutation Rates from Paternity Cases Using a Bayesian Network P. Vicard, A. P. Dawid, J. Mortera and S. L. Lauritzen
248 Accumulating Evidence of Malfunctioning Government Machinery M. Stone
247 Spatial-temporal Rainfall Simulation using Generalized Linear Models C. Yang, R.E. Chandler, V.S. Isham and H.S. Wheater
246 Application of a predictive distribution formula to Bayesian computation for incomplete data models T.J. Sweeting and S. Kharroubi
245 Adjudication of the Radio 4 Today Programme Speed Tribunal M. Stone
244 Statistics and the Law A. P. Dawid
243 Probability and Statistics in the Law A. P. Dawid
242 How Not to Fund Hospital and Community Health Services in England (and How One Might) M. Stone and J. Galbraith
241 On the Implementation of Local Probability Matching Priors for Interest Parameters T.J. Sweeting
240 Stochastic and Spatial Dynamics of Nematode Parasites in Farmed Ruminants S.J. Cornell, V.S. Isham and B.T. Grenfell

Research Reports From 2003  
239 Accurate Signal Estimation Near Discontinuities T. R. Downie
238 Paradox, simple inconsistency, or serious pathology? Comment on `Conditioning as disintegration' by Chang & Pollard M. Stone, A. P. Dawid and J. V. Zidek
237 Which Likelihood Ratio? (Comment on "Why the effect of prior odds should accompany the likelihood ratio when reporting DNA evidence", by Ronald Meester and Marjan Sjerps) A. P. Dawid
236 Simulation and downscaling models for potential evaporation C. Yang, R.E. Chandler, V.S. Isham, C. Annoni and H.S. Wheater
235 Prediction of future migration flows to the UK and Germany (Chapter 6 of Home Office Online Report 25/03, www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/pdfs2/rdsolr2503.pdf): Technical exercise, honest study, or convenient obfuscation? M. Stone
234 A Statistical Treatment of Biases Affecting the Estimation of Mutation Rates P. Vicard and A. P. Dawid
233 Some new formulae for posterior expectations and Bartlett corrections T. J. Sweeting and S. A. Kharroubi
232 On the use of generalized linear models for interpreting climate variability R. E. Chandler
231 Demographic explanation of a remarkable enhancement of repopulation hemopoiesis by heterozygous connexin43/45 stem cells seeded on wildtype connexin43 stroma M. Rosendaal and M. Stone
230 Collapsibility of graphical CG-regression models V. Didelez and D. Edwards

Research Reports From 2002  
229 Ultimate extinction of the promiscuous bisexual Galton-Watson metapopulation Stephen J. Cornell and Valerie S. Isham
228 Probability, Causality and the Empirical World: A Bayes-de Finetti-Popper-Borel Synthesis (published version) A.P. Dawid
227 GLIMCLIM: Generalized Linear Modelling for Daily Climate Time Series R.E. Chandler s
226 An object-oriented Bayesian network for estimating mutation rates A. P. Dawid
225 Probabilistic Expert Systems for DNA Mixture Profiling J. Mortera, A. P. Dawid and S. L. Lauritzen
224 Floods: Some Probabilistic and Statistical Approaches D.R. Cox, V.S.Isham and P.J.Northrop
223 Game Theory, Maximum Entropy, Minimum Discrepancy, and Robust Bayesian Decision Theory (published version) P. D. Grünwald and A. P. Dawid

Research Reports From 2001  
222 A Bayesian Network in Intensive Care: a fully explanatory model for care evaluation D. Luciani
221 Influence diagrams for causal modelling and inference A. P. Dawid
220 Non-Fatherhood or Mutation? A Probabilistic Approach to Parental Exclusion in Paternity Testing A. Philip Dawid, Julia Mortera and Vincenzo L. Pascali
219 Bayes's Theorem And Weighing Evidence by Juries A. P. Dawid

Research Reports From 2000  
218 Consistency in Misspecified Models Kostas Skouras and A. Philip Dawid
217 Statistical modelling of thermal annealing of fission tracks in Durango apatite G.M. Laslett and R.F. Galbraith
216 Point estimation for log-linear models where one variable is subject to non-ignorable non-response P. S. Clarke
215 Probabilistic expert systems for forensic inference from genetic markers A. P. Dawid, J. Mortera, V. L. Pascali and D. van Boxel
214 Models for macroparasite aggregation: the role of the transmission process Julian Herbert and Valerie Isham
213 Causal Inference Using Influence Diagrams: the Problem of Partial Compliance A. P. Dawid
212 Separoids: A general framework for conditional independence and irrelevance A. P. Dawid
211 Comment on Stockmarr's "Likelihood Ratios for Evaluating DNA Evidence, When the Suspect is Found Through a Database Search" A. P. Dawid
210 Compatible Prior Distributions A. P. Dawid and S. L. Lauritzen
209 Some variations on variation independence A. P. Dawid
208 Questions of efficiency estimation in public services: is the state of the art really "State of The Art"? M. Stone
207 Distinguishing dose populations in sediment mixtures: a test of single-grain optical dating procedures using mixtures of laboratory-dosed quartz R.G. Roberts, R.F. Galbraith, J.M. Olley, G.M. Laslett and H. Yoshida
206 Estimating the age range of optical dating using single `supergrains' of quartz H. Yoshida, R.G. Roberts, J. M. Olley, G.M. Laslett, and R.F. Galbraith
205 Disease surveillance and data collection issues in epidemic modelling P.J. Solomon and V.S. Isham
204 Generation of spatially consistent rainfall data H.S. Wheater, V.S. Isham, C. Onof, R.E. Chandler, P.J. Northrop, P. Guiblin, S.M. Bate, D.R. Cox and D. Koutsoyiannis

Research Reports From 1999  
203  Model Metaselection X. de Luna and K. Skouras
202  The Trouble with Bayes Factors A.P. Dawid
201 Alternative mathematics for ion exchange modelling and data analysis M.Stone

Research Reports From 1998  
200 Strong consistency in nonlinear stochastic regression models K. Skouras
199 Conditional products: an alternative approach to conditional independence A. P. Dawid and M. Studeny
198 Simulation-based robust estimation of ARMA models X. de Luna and M.G. Genton
197 Early statisticians: Sir Frederick Morton Eden (1766-1809) and Florence Nightingale (1820-1910) M. Stone
196 A point process model for rainfall with dependent duration and intensity Anastasia Kakou
195 Climate change detection using Generalized Linear Models for rainfall - a case study from the West of Ireland
II. Modelling of rainfall amounts on wet days
Richard E. Chandler and Howard S. Wheater
194 Climate change detection using Generalized Linear Models for rainfall - a case study from the West of Ireland
I. Preliminary analysis and modelling of rainfall occurrence
Richard E. Chandler and Howard S. Wheater
193 Stochastic host-parasite interaction models Julian Herbert and Valerie Isham
192 Hierarchical Models for DNA Profiling Using Heterogeneous Databases A. Philip Dawid and John Pueschel
191 Influence of light level on the incidence of road casualties and the associated effect of summertime clock changes M. Hazelton, M. Stone and J. Broughton

Research Reports From 1997  
190 Bayes factors for variance component models Donna K. Pauler, Jonathan C. Wakefield and Robert E. Kass
189 Modelling issues in forensic inference A.P. Dawid
188 Causal inference without counterfactuals A.P. Dawid
187 A decision theory approach to fitness for pupose in analytical measurement T. Fearn, S.A. Fisher, M. Thompson and S. Ellison
186 Spatio-temporal rainfall processes: stochastic models and data analysis R.E. Chandler, V.S. Isham and P.J. Northrop
185 The Schwarz Criterion and Related Methods for Normal Linear Models Donna K. Pauler
184 Bayesian image analysis and the disaggregation of rainfall R.E. Chandler, N.G. Mackay, H.S.Wheater and C. Onof
183 An optimal local bandwidth selector for kernel density estimation Martin L. Hazelton
182 Policies for Poverty from an Analytical Aristocrat Mervyn Stone
181 Forensic Identification with Imperfect Evidence A. P. Dawid and J. Mortera
180 Absolute continuity of Markov chains Kostas Skouras
179 Bayesian updating and the time-preference reversal effect Peter D. Sozou
178 Statistical Modelling and Analysis of Spatial Patterns D.R. Cox, V.S. Isham and Paul Northrop
177 A clustered spatial-temporal model of rainfall Paul Northrop
176 Spatial-temporal rainfall fields: modelling and statistical aspects H.S. Wheater, V.S. Isham, D.R. Cox, R.E. Chandler, A. Kakou, P.J. Northrop, L.Oh, C. Onof and I. Rodriguez-Iturbe
  Research Reports From 1996   
175 Nonconjugate Bayesian regression on many variables B.Q. Fang and A.P. Dawid
174 Stochastic spatial-temporal models for rain D.R. Cox and V.S. Isham
173 A note on analytical solutions to the Whittle likelihood equation Richard E. Chandler
172 Critique of E.T.Jaynes's "Paradoxes of Probability Theory" A.P.Dawid, M.Stone and J.V.Zidek
171 Prequential Probability: Principles and Properties A.P. Dawid and V.G. Vovk
170 Using a graphical method to take account of dependencies when evaluating complicated patterns of evidence A.P. Dawid and I.W. Evett
169 Detecting adulteratism of Basmati rice by the analysis of mixtures T. Fearn
168 Discrimination with many variables P.J. Brown, T. Fearn and M.S. Haque
167 Coherent criteria for optimal experimental design A.P. Dawid and P. Sebastiani
166 Site 73 in hypervariable region II of the human mitochondrial genome and the origin of European populations. H.M. Wilkinson-Herbots
165 The structured coalescent H.M. Herbots
164 The dependence of measures of subpopulation differentiation on population structure and mutation rate (Part II) H.M. Herbots
163 The dependence of measures of subpopulation differentiation on population structure and mutation rate (Part I) H.M. Herbots
162 Optimal rates for local bandwidth selection M. Hazelton
161 Efficient cross-validation of reduced rank regression and JCRO R.J. Brooks and M. Stone
160 On Efficient Point Prediction Systems K. Skouras and A.P. Dawid
159 On Efficient Probability Forecasting Systems K. Skouras and A.P. Dawid
158 The second-order spectral analysis of spatial-temporal rainfall models Richard E. Chandler
157 Conditional Independence A. P. Dawid
  Research Reports From 1995  
156 Statistical modelling of thermal annesting of fission tracks G.M. Laslett and R.F. Galbraith
155 Analysis of Fission track counts R.F. Galbraith and G. Laslett
154 Renewal models and renewal-type equations as Functionals K. Politis
153 Connectedness conditions for the convergence of the Gibbs sampler J.P. Hubert, C.P. Robert and C. Goutis
152 Standardizing Spectrophotometers T. Fearn
151 Comparison of Full Bayes and Bayes-Least Squares Criteria for Normal Discrimination B.Q. Fang and A.P. Dawid
150 Confidence bounds for the adjustment coefficient S.M. Pitts, R. Grubel and P. Embrechts
149 Second derivative functional regression with applications to NIR Spectroscopy C. Goutis
148 Spatial-temporal rainfall processes: stochastic models and data analysis R. Chandler, V. Isham, A. Kakou and P. Northrop
147 Monte Carlo inference for a model of carbon fibre strength M. Hazelton
146 Bandwidth selection for local density estimators M. Hazelton
145 Improved Monte Carlo inference for models with additive error M. Hazelton
144 Comments on "The roles of conditioning in inference" by N. Reid A. P. Dawid and C. Goutis
143 Modelling mixed fission trackages: a cube root truncated normal model R.F. Galbraith and G.M. Laslett
142 A spectral method for estimating parameters in rainfall models Richard E. Chandler
141 Prequential Analysis A. P. Dawid
  Research Reports from 1994  
140 Partial least squares regression on smooth factors C. Goutis and T. Fearn
139 Proper Measures of Discrepancy Uncertainty and Dependence with Applications to Predictive Experimental Design [revised] [original] A. P. Dawid
138 On Compatible priors for Baysian Networks R. Cowell
137 Model choice in generalized linear models: a Bayesian approach via Kullback-Leibler projections C. Goutis and C.P. Robert
136 Elementary Watson! Coherent Analysis of Forensic Evidence A. P. Dawid and J. Mortera
135 A comparison of sequential learning methods for incomplete data R. G. Cowell, A. P. Dawid and P. Sebastiani
134 Stochastic Models of Host-Macroparasite Interaction Valerie Isham
133 Distributive Block Structures: Mathematical Properties A.P. Dawid
132 Decision networks: A formulation for multistage decision problems. Robert G. Cowell
131 A note on nonregular likelihood functions in heterosecdastic regression models. Adam Crisp and Jim Burridge
130 The efficient cross-validation of principal components applied to principal component regression Bart Mertens, Tom Fearn and Michael Thompson
  Research Reports From 1993  
129 Hybrid Propagation in Junction Trees A.P. Dawid, U. Kjaerulff and S.L. Lauritzen
128 Stochastic Models of Precipitation D.R. Cox and Valerie Isham
127 Unique redescending t M-Estimates for the Linear Regression Model Adam Crisp and Jim Burridge
126 Partial Least Squares Algorithm Yields Shrinkage Estimators Constantinos Goutis
125 Maximum Likelihood Estimation in the presence of Extra-Poisson Variation Hassan Johaadien and Constantinos Goutis
124 Joint Continuum Regression for Multiple Predictands Rodney Brooks and Mervyn Stone
123 Taking Prediction Seriously A.P. Dawid
122 Estimation in Linear Models using the back Propagation Algorithm K. Skouras, C. Goutis and M.J. Bramson
121 Frequentist Post-Data Inference Constantinos Goutis and George Casella
120 Choice among Hypotheses using Estimation Criteria Constantinos Goutis and Christian P. Robert
119 D-Optimal Designs for Generalised Linear Models with Variance Proportional to the Square of the Mean Jim Burridge and Paola Sebastiani
118 Analysing Unreplicated Factorials Jorge Olguin
117 Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests of fit when parameters are estimated from order statistics M. Taghavi-Khonsary
116 Some applications of radial plots R.F. Galbraith
115 The Island Problem: Coherent use of Identification Evidence A.P. Dawid
114 Statistical models for mixed ages in fission track analysis R.F. Galbraith and G.M. Laslett
113 Assessing Evidence in Multiple Hypotheses Constantinos Goutis, George Casella and Martin T. Wells
  Research Reports From 1992  
112 Coherent Combination of Experts' Opinions A.P. Dawid, M.H. DeGroot and J. Mortera
111 Nonparametric estimation of compound distributions with applications in insurance Susan M. Pitts
110 Some applications of the fast Fourier transform algorithm in insurance mathematics Paul Embrechts, Rudolf Grubel and Susan M. Pitts
109 Calculating moments of decomposable functions in Bayesian networks R.G. Cowell
108 The Dilation Phenomenon in Robust Bayesian Inference by Larry Wasserman and Teddy Seidenfeld Constantinos Goutis
107 A note on the uniqueness of M-estimators in robust regression A. Crisp and Jim Burridge
106 The analysis of projected fission track lengths G.M. Laslett and R.F. Galbraith
105 Flat or Natural? A Note on the Choice of Calibration Samples. T. Fearn
104 Selection Paradoxes of Bayesian Inference A.P. Dawid
103 Bayesian Analysis in Expert Systems D.J. Spiegelhalter, A.P. Dawid Steffen L. Lauritzen, Robert G. Cowell
102 Statistical Aspects of Chaos: A Review Valerie Isham
101 A Graphical Method for solving a Decision Analysis problem Constantinos Goutis
100 A repeat of the ""Benveniste"" experiment: statistical analysis Jim Burridge
99 Relationships between post data accuracy measures. George Casella and Constantinos Goutis
98 Nonparametric estimation of the stationary waiting time distribution function for the GI/G/1 queue Susan M. Pitts
97 Statistical Aspects of pre-operative screening for anaesthetic allergies Constantinos Goutis
  Research Reports From 1991  
96 Asymptotic property of a Bayesian discrimination problem B.Q. Fang and A.P. Dawid
95 Sequential model criticism in probabilistic expert systems R.G. Cowell and A.P. Dawid, D.J. Spiegelhalter
94 Shrinking Calibrations T. Fearn
93 Graphical Modelling of Data from Whitehall II Ian White
92 Stochastic Models for Epidemics with Special Reference to Aids Valerie Isham
91 Optimal Designs for Generalized Linear Models J. Burridge and P. Sebastiani
90 Bayesian estimation methods for contingency tables. Constantinos Goutis
89 Fast retraction of evidence in a probabilistic expert system R.G. Cowell and A.P. Dawid
88 Applications of a General Propagation Algorithm for Probabilistic Expert Systems A.P. Dawid
87 A Bayesian Expert System for the Analysis of an Adverse Drug Reaction R.G. Cowell, A.P. Dawid, T. Hutchinson, D.J. Spiegelhalter
86 BAIES - A Probabilistic Expert System Shell with Qualitative and Quantitative Learning Robert Cowell
84 Joint Continuum Regression for Multiple Predictands Mervyn Stone and Rodney Brooks
83 Conjugate Bayes Discrimination with Infinitely Many Variables A.P. Dawid and B.Q. Fang
82 Prequential Analysis, Stochastic Complexity and Bayesian Inference A.P. Dawid
80 Unique and Consistent M-Estimators for Linear Models and Symmetry Heavy-tailed Error Distributions Jim Burridge
79 Recovering extra-binomial variation Constantinos Goutis
  Research Reports From 1990  
78 Increasing the Confidence in Student's t Interval. Constantinos Goutis and George Casella
77 A functional approach to the stationary waiting time and idle period distributions of the GI/G/I queue Rudolf Grübel and Susan M. Pitts
76 Assessing the variability of stochastic epidemics Valerie Isham
75 Generic Organisational Networks for the Analysis of Drug Safety R.G. Cowell, A.P. Dawid, T.A. Hutchinson, S. Roden and D.J. Spiegelhalter
74 Foundations of Probability (Article for ""Encyclopaedia of the History and Philosophy of the Mathematical Sciences"") A.P. Dawid
73 Lumbricus Terrestris: A Game for Teaching Resource-Limited Statistical Society. G. Brian Newman
72 Box-Cox Transformations and the Taguchi Method: an Alternative Analysis of a Taguchi Case Study T. Fearn
71 An Application of Box-Jenkins Methodology to the Control of Gluten Addition in a Flour Mill. T. Fearn and P.I. Maris
70 Ranges of Posterior Measures for Some Classes of Priors with Specified Moments Constantinos Goutis
69 Probabilistic causality assessment after a suspected adverse drug reaction: a case study in Bayesian network modelling. David J. Spiegelhalter, A.P. Dawid, Tom A. Hutchinson, R.G. Cowell
68 Comments on the use of the back-projection method to estimate the incidence of HIV infection and Aids Valerie Isham
67 Fisherian Inference in Likelihood and Prequential Frames of Reference A.P. Dawid
  Research Reports From 1989  
66 Comment on Joshi's ""Counter-example against the likelihood Principle"" A.P. Dawid, T. Fearn and M. Stone
65 Markov Distributions, Hyper Markov Laws and Meta Markov Models on Decomposable Graphs, with Applications to Bayesian Learning in Expert Systems A.P. Dawid and S.L. Lauritzen
64 A Stratified Binomial Marker Model for Bone-Marrow Repopulation Experiments M. Stone and D. Harrison
  Research Reports From 1988  
63 Independence Properties of Directed Markov Fields S.L. Lauritzen, A.P. Dawid, B.N. Larsen, H.G. Leimer
62 Continuum Regression: Cross-validated, Sequentially-constructed Prediction embracing Ordinary Least Squares, Partial Least Squares, and Principal Components Regression M. Stone and R.J. Brooks
61 Prequential Tests of Model Fit F. Seillier, T.J. Sweeting and A.P. Dawid
60 Moment-Based Estimating Equations, Mean-Variance Relationships and Exponential Dispersion Models J. Burridge
  Research Reports From 1987  
59 Functional Models, Fiducial Prediction and Semi-Bayesian Inference A.P. Dawid
58 Mathematical Modelling of the Transmission Dynamics of HIV Infection and Aids: A Review Valerie Isham
57 On testing the validity of probability forecasts R.M.L.G. Seillier
56 The Infinite Regress and its Conjugate Analysis A.P. Dawid
55 The Population Genealogy of the Infinitely-Many Neutral Alleles Model Peter Donnelly and Simon Tavare
  Research Reports From 1986  
54 Notes on Linear Sufficiency in the General Linear Model M. Stone
53 Symmetry Analysis of the Mixed Model A.P. Dawid
52 Isobolic Determination of Linear and 'Ratio-Linear' Parameters M. Stone
51 A Bayes, Sweep-Operational Construction for Rao's Unified Theory of Linear Estimation (Short Title: Construction for Unified Least-Squares) M. Stone and J.L. Wang
50 Symmetry Models and Hypotheses for Structured Data Layouts A.P. Dawid
49 Graphical Display of Estimates having Differing Standard errors R.F. Galbraith
48 Mean-variance Relationships, Generalised Linear Models and GLIM J. Burridge
47 The difficulty about conjunction A.P. Dawid
46 Prequential Data Analysis A.P. Dawid
45 Inter-Particle Correlation in Death Processes with application to Compartmental models. Frank Ball and Peter Donnelly
44 Stochastic Monotonicity in a reinforcement-depletion compartmental Urn Model Peter Donnelly
  Research Reports From 1985  
43 Marked Point Processes and Their Correlation's Valerie Isham
42 Prequential Assessment of Discrete Probability Forecasts Françoise Seillier
41 Statistical Analysis of C.W. Naeser's Fish Canyon Zircon Data R.F. Galbraith
40 Ubles or Blues? Mervyn Stone
39 Coordinate-Free multivariable statistics: From Halmos to Gauss to Bayes Mervyn Stone
38 Asymptotic Inference for Eigenvectors of Covariance and Correlation Matrices T. Kollo
37 The Virtual Waiting Time and Related Processes D.R. Cox and Valerie Isham
  Research Reports From 1984  
36 A Statistical Analysis of some 2-players Games J.Q. Smith
35 Decomposition and Bayesian analysis of invariant normal linear models. G. Consonni and A.P. Dawid
34 Some Characterizations of Stochastic transformations relevant to models for experiments M. Stone and B. Johnston
33 Optimal allocation for Bayesian inference about an odds ratio R.J. Brooks
  Research Reports From 1983  
32 Tomorrow and Tomorrow and Tomorrow … The Prequential Approach to Statistical Theory A.P. Dawid
31 Invariant Normal Bayesian Linear Models and Experimental Designs G. Consonni and A.P. Dawid
29 Cross-Validated Composition Determination in Nuclear Analysis C.M. Brien and M. Stone
28 On Jackknife, Cross-Validatory and Classical Methods of Estimating a proportion with batches of different sizes. C.C. Frangos and M. Stone
27 Statistical Reasoning M. Stone
26 Catastrophes in Statistical Models and Decision Theory: A way of Seeing. J.Q. Smith
25 A dynamic Forecasting Model for a General Class of Discontinuous Time Series R.G. Gathercole and J.Q. Smith
24 Approximate likelihood ratio tests in the analysis of beta-binomial data. R.J. Brooks
23 Variance-Covariance Modelling for Chromosome Marker Data with Application to Haemopoiesis M. Stone
22 Decomposition of Statistical Problems by means of Invariance Mathematical Tools and Results G. Consonni
21 On the Relative Efficiency of Censored Reliability Studies R.J. Brooks
20 Fitting Generalised Linear Models in the Analysis of Fission Track Counts R.J. Brooks
19 On Statistical Estimation in Fission Track Dating R.F. Galbraith
18 Exploratory studies of some Non-Local Non-Linear Design Criteria Mervyn Stone and Julie Morris
  Research Reports From 1982  
17 Bivarate Markov Point Processes - Some Approximations Valerie Isham
16 Forecasting accident claims for an Assurance Company J.Q Smith
15 Point Processes and the Markov Property Valerie Isham
14 Objective Probability Forecasts A.P. Dawid
13 Probability, Symmetry and Frequency A.P. Dawid
12 A Bivariate Spatial Point Process of Ants Nests R.D. Harkness and Valerie Isham
11 Statistical Analysis of some Fission Track Counts and Neutron Fluence Measurements. R.F. Galbraith
9 Invariance and Independence in Multivariate Distribution Theory A.P. Dawid
  Research Reports From 1981  
8 Principles of Interactive Forecasting J.Q. Smith and R.B. Cathercole
7 Catastrophies and Geometric Sufficiency J.Q. Smith
6 Fiducial Probability M. Stone
5 A General Statistical Model for Clone/Tissue studies using X-Chromosome Inactivation Data M. Stone
4 Intersubjective Statistical Models A.P. Dawid
3 Statistical Inference A.P. Dawid
2 Invariant Prior Distributions A.P. Dawid
1 The Functional-Model Basis of Fiducial Inference A.P. Dawid and M. Stone