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Forecasting adversary’s scenarios: Systemic competitive red teaming

7 March 2012

Mohamed Gaballa


In the last few decades, a number of tools have been developed to support crime and intelligence analysts in assessing security threats. For example, the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) method has been proposed in the 1970’s as a systematic tool for dealing with human biases. Other methods involving the use of Bayesian networks are also often proposed by the scientific community to accurately assess the likelihood of particular hypotheses when faced with numerous items of evidence.
In this experimental research project, a new hybrid method combining the core principles of quantitative techniques and structured techniques will be investigated. The resulting method will improve the ability of security agencies to draw more accurate conclusions from various pieces of intelligence. Ultimately, a reduction in the number of intelligence failures will contribute to improve public confidence in our services, as well as reducing the risk associated with threats from organised crime and terrorism.