2010 MRes projects
- A feasibility study of the use of ground penetrating radar and metal oxide semiconductor sensors on a mobile platform for security applications
- The use of forensic evidence in the prosecution of terrorism cases in Britain
- Scintillation materials for the detection of special nuclear materials (SNMs)
- Looking beyond borders: Identification, information and the diffusion of conflicts.
- How hard can it be?: A study investigating user trust decisions in e-commerce
- Non-contact object localisation for automated 'on-belt- tomosynthesis
- Immmunising the Internet
- Investigating forward scatter radar for maritime target detection using statistical and comparative study
- The spatial distribution of post-blast RDX residue: Forensic implications
- Factors influencing intelligence analysts performance in using Bayesian and automated analysis of competing hypotheses
- Secure digital archive search using a probably approximately correct architecture
- Constraints and prospects of the application of scientific rigour to conflict early warning in Africa
- Prediction of crime patterns emerging from simulated search trajectories of individual offenders
- Download warnings: A rational rejection of security advice?
- The effectiveness of vehicle security devices to prevent car crime in Chile
- Inferring user behaviour despite wireless network encryption
- A feasibility study of the use of ground penetrating radar and metal oxide semiconductor sensors on a mobile platform for security applications
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Factors influencing intelligence analysts performance in using Bayesian and automated analysis of competing hypotheses
22 February 2012
The study examines the impact of using different analytical methods in intelligence analysis on the final judgment. The analytical methodology under consideration is the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses. The study focused on the Automated ACH and Bayesian ACH, along with intuitive judgement as a reference. The research question is: “Is the Bayesian ACH better in safeguarding against analysis pitfalls than Automated ACH?”
The main findings of the study indicate that the relation between hypotheses and evidence proved to be a crucial problem. The Bayesian ACH is the approach that considers this problem more. In additions, the Bayesian has unique consideration for the background judgement which proved to be influential in the final judgment. The second crucial problem is the participants’ limited ability to assess the diagnosticity of evidence.
This project has been conducted using data and support from a key government department, a leading investment bank, a leading political risk consultancy firm in the UK.
