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Constraints and prospects of the application of scientific rigour to conflict early warning in Africa

22 February 2012

Liz Stones

This research examines the effectiveness of the application of statistical analyses in combination with intelligence reporting within African early warning systems in the African Union and the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development in East Africa.

Based on a review of relevant literature and fieldwork conducted in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, the thesis explores the constraints and prospects of these emerging mechanisms and develops a critical analysis of their implementation and impact on policy-decision making within these organisations.