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Maternal Mortality Model

We have developed software to implement a model that can be used to assess the extent to which a combination of improving health facilities and community-based access to life-saving drugs could reduce maternal mortality due to post-partum haemorrhage or sepsis.

Details of the model and study findings can be found in:

Pagel C, Lewycka S, Colbourn T, Mwansambo C, Meguid T, Chiudzu G, Utley M, Costello AML, (2009)
Estimation of potential effects of improved community-based drug provision, to augment health-facility strengthening, on maternal mortality due to post-partum haemorrhage and sepsis in sub-Saharan Africa: an equity effectiveness model
The Lancet, doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(09)61566X

Software Requirements: Microsoft Excel 97 or later. Macros must be enabled when using this software.

Please see the ReadMe file before downloading the Excel spreadsheet. More detailed instructions on how to use the model are given inside the spreadsheet.

A detailed derivation of our parameter estimates (as published in the online appendix to Pagel et al. 2009) can be downloaded by clicking here

Alternative estimates for the parameter values used in the model

One of the strengths of mathematical modelling is that it can be used to explore the implications of different interpretations of the evidence. Results from models of this form are dependent on the parameter estimates used and we welcome submissions of different parameter estimates and model findings from others.

If you would like to contribute your findings, please email a file containing the estimates used, the reasoning and evidence behind them and the model results to Dr Christina Pagel. These files will be posted on this webpage. All such submissions will be properly attributed, and not edited by us, to maintain impartiality.