Toby D. Pilditch

Honorary Research Fellow

Research Interests

My research at UCL is in the domains of evidential, probabilistic, and causal reasoning, as well as belief updating and cognitive biases.

I am also a Senior Research Associate at the Complex Human-Environmental Systems Simulation Laboratory (CoHESyS) at the University of Oxford, where I am building psychologically informed Agent-Based Models, exploring the intersection of cognitive psychology and dynamic, complex systems.

My previous work was on the Bayesian ARgumentation via Delphi (BARD) project for the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA), the goal of which was to improve reasoning in Intelligence Analysis via the application of Bayesian Networks.

Publications

Pilditch, T. D., & Madsen, J. K. (under review). The role of broadcasters in shaping beliefs within complex information systems.

Dewitt, S. H., Lam, M., Shi, A., Tam, B., Stoilova, E., Pilditch, T. D., & Lagando, D. A. (under review). Prospect Theory and Second Order Uncertainty.

Cruz, N., Pilditch, T. D., & Hahn, U. (under review). Failing to see what you are a part of: The hidden wisdom of crowds.

Madsen, J. K., Conroy, M., & Pilditch, T. D. (under review). When and why "Doing Your Own Research" may be a reasonable strategy.

Madsen, J. K., Powers, P., Bailey, R., Carrella, E., Payette, N., & Pilditch, T. D. (under review). Modelling adaptive and anticipatory human decision-making in complex human-environment systems.

Pilditch, T.D., Roozenbeek, J., Madsen, J. K., & van der Linden, S. (2022). Psychological inoculation can reduce susceptibility to misinformation in large rational agent networks. Royal Society Open Science, 9, 211953. [https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.211953]

Fränken, J.-P., & Pilditch, T. D. (2021). Cascades across networks are sufficient for the formation of echo chambers: An agent-based model. Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, 24, (3) 1. [Preprint]

Pilditch, T. D. (2021). Why scientific evidence is no longer enough in public debate. PsyArXiv. [Preprint]

Pilditch, T. D., & Madsen, J. K. (2021). Targeting your preferences: Modelling micro-targeting for an increasingly diverse electorate. Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, 24, (1) 5. [DOI: 10.18564/jasss.4452]

Connor Desai, S., Pilditch, T. D., & Madsen, J. K. (2020). The rational continued influence of misinformation. Cognition, 205, 104453. [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cognition.2020.104453]

Liefgreen, A., Pilditch, T.D., & Lagnado, D. (2020). Strategies for selecting and evaluating information. Cognitive Psychology, 123 101332. [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cogpsych.2020.101332]

Lau, W. W. Y., Shiran, Y., Bailey, R. M., ... Pilditch, T. D., ... & Palardy, J. E. [29 Authors] (2020). Evaluating scenarios toward zero plastic pollution. Science. [DOI: 10.1126/science.aba9475]

Pilditch, T. D., Hahn, U., Fenton, N., & Lagnado, D. (2020). Dependencies in evidential reports: The case for informational advantages. Cognition, 204, 104343. [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cognition.2020.104343]

Cruz, N., Connor Desai, S., Dewitt, S., Hahn, U., Lagnado, D., Liefgreen, A., Phillips, K., Pilditch, T. D., & Tešić, M. (2020). Widening access to Bayesian problem solving. Frontiers in Psychology, 11, 660. [https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2020.00660]

Pilditch, T. D., Lagator, S., & Lagnado, D. (2020). Strange but true: Corroboration and base-rate neglect. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory and Cognition. [https://doi.org/10.1037/xlm0000816]

Madsen, J. K., Hahn, U., & Pilditch, T. D. (2020). The impact of partial source dependence on belief and reliability revision. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory and Cognition. [https://doi.org/10.1037/xlm0000846]

Pilditch, T. D., Madsen, J. K., & Custers, R. (2020). False Prophets and Cassandra’s Curse: The role of credibility in belief updating. Acta Psychologica, 202, 102956. [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actpsy.2019.102956]

Lewandowsky, S., Pilditch, T. D., Madsen, J. K., Oreskes, N, & Risbey, J. S. (2019). Seepage and influence: An evidence-resistant minority can affect scientific belief formation and public opinion. Cognition, 188, 124-139. [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cognition.2019.01.011]

Pilditch, T. D., Fenton, N., & Lagnado, D. (2019). The zero-sum fallacy in evidence evaluation. Psychological Science, 1-11.[https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797618818484]

Osman, M., Fenton, N., Pilditch, T. D., Lagnado, D., & Neil, M. (2018). Whom do we trust on social policy interventions? Basic and Applied Social Psychology, 1-20. [Link]

Madsen, J. K., Bailey, R. & Pilditch, T.D. (2018). Large networks of rational agents form persistent echo chambers. Scientific Reports, 8(1), 12391. [Link]

Madsen, J. K., & Pilditch, T. D. (2018) A method for evaluating cognitively informed micro-targeted campaign strategies: An agent-based model proof of principle. PloS One, 13(4), e0193909. [Link]

Pilditch, T. D., & Custers, R. (2018) Communicated beliefs about action-outcomes: The role of initial confirmation in the adoption and maintenance of unsupported beliefs. Acta Psychologica, 184, 46-63. [Link]

Veitch, J. A., Whitehead, L. A., Mossman, M. & Pilditch, T. D. (2014) Chromaticity-matched but spectrally different light source effects on simple and complex color judgments. Color Research and Application, 39, 263–274. [Link]

Conference Proceedings

Pilditch, T.D., & Liefgreen, A. (2019). Scheduling Information Search: Heuristics and Meaningful Metrics. In Goel, A., Seifert, C., & Freska, C. (Eds.), Proceedings of the 41st Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society (Accepted Abstract). Austin, TX: Cognitive Science Society.

Pilditch, T.D., Liefgreen, A., & Lagnado, D. (2019). Zero-sum reasoning in information search. In Goel, A., Seifert, C., & Freska, C. (Eds.), Proceedings of the 41st Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society (pp. 938-943). Austin, TX: Cognitive Science Society.[Link]

Pilditch, T.D., Hahn, U., & Lagnado, D. (2019). Shared Evidence: It all depends... In Goel, A., Seifert, C., & Freska, C. (Eds.), Proceedings of the 41st Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society (pp. 2571-2577). Austin, TX: Cognitive Science Society. [Link]

Pilditch, T.D., Fries, A., & Lagnado, D. (2019). Deception in evidential reasoning: Wilful deceit or honest mistake? In Goel, A., Seifert, C., & Freska, C. (Eds.), Proceedings of the 41st Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society (pp. 931-937). Austin, TX: Cognitive Science Society. [Link]

Madsen, J. K., Hahn, U., & Pilditch, T. D. (2019). Reasoning about dissent: Expert disagreement and shared backgrounds. In Goel, A., Seifert, C., & Freska, C. (Eds.), Proceedings of the 41st Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society (pp. 2228-2234). Austin, TX: Cognitive Science Society. [Link]

Madsen, J. K., Connor Desai, S., & Pilditch, T. D. (2019). Source reliability and the continued influence effect of misinformation: A Bayesian network approach. In Goel, A., Seifert, C., & Freska, C. (Eds.), Proceedings of the 41st Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society (pp. 2235-2241). Austin, TX: Cognitive Science Society. [Link]

Hahn, U., Pilditch, T. D., & Cruz, N. (2019). Failing to see what you are a part of: Wisdom among crowd members. In Goel, A., Seifert, C., & Freska, C. (Eds.), Proceedings of the 41st Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society (pp. XX-XX). Austin, TX: Cognitive Science Society.

Liefgreen, A., Pilditch, T.D., & Lagnado, D. (2019). Selecting and evaluating evidence: The garden of forking information paths. In Goel, A., Seifert, C., & Freska, C. (Eds.), Proceedings of the 41st Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society (pp. XX-XX). Austin, TX: Cognitive Science Society.

Madsen, J. K., Hahn, U., & Pilditch, T. D. (2018). Partial source dependence and reliability revision: the impact of shared backgrounds. In Rogers, T.T., Rau, M., Zhu, X., & Kalish, C. W. (Eds.), Proceedings of the 40th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society (pp. 722-727). Austin, TX: Cognitive Science Society. [Link]

Phillips, K., Hahn, U., & Pilditch, T. D. (2018). Evaluating testimony from multiple witnesses: single cue satisficing or integration? In Rogers, T.T., Rau, M., Zhu, X., & Kalish, C. W. (Eds.), Proceedings of the 40th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society (pp. 2244-2249). Austin, TX: Cognitive Science Society. [Link]

Pilditch, T.D., Hahn, U., & Lagnado, D. (2018). Integrating dependent evidence: naïve reasoning in the face of complexity. In Rogers, T.T., Rau, M., Zhu, X., & Kalish, C. W. (Eds.), Proceedings of the 40th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society (pp. 884-889). Austin, TX: Cognitive Science Society. [Link]

Pilditch, T. D. (2017). Opinion Cascades and Echo-Chambers in Online Networks: A Proof of Concept Agent-Based Model, In Gunzelmann, G., Howes, A., Tenbrink, T. & Davelaar, E. J. (Eds.), Proceedings of the 39th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society, Austin, TX: Cognitive Science Society, 943-949. [pdf]

Madsen, J. K. & Pilditch, T.D. (2017). Strategic advantages of micro-targeted campaigns: Implementing savvy persuaders in a Bayesian Agent-Based Model, In Gunzelmann, G., Howes, A., Tenbrink, T. & Davelaar, E. J. (Eds.), Proceedings of the 39th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society, Austin, TX: Cognitive Science Society, 2651-2657. [pdf]

Madsen, J. K., Bailey, R. & Pilditch, T.D. (2017). Growing a Bayesian Conspiracy Theorist: An Agent-Based Model, In Gunzelmann, G., Howes, A., Tenbrink, T. & Davelaar, E. J. (Eds.), Proceedings of the 39th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society, Austin, TX: Cognitive Science Society, 2657-2662. [pdf]

Contact

Toby D. Pilditch
Honorary Research Fellow
Department of Experimental Psychology
University College London, UK
E-mail: t . pilditch at ucl . ac . uk