Publications
Forthcoming
Bramley, N. R., Gerstenberg, T., Mayrhofer, R. & Lagnado, D. A. (submitted). The role of time in causal learning.
Bramley, N. R., Dayan, P., Griffiths, T. L. & Lagnado, D. A. (in press). Formalizing Neurath's ship: Approximate algorithms for online causal learning. Psychological Review.[preprint][supplement]
Lagnado, D. A. & Gerstenberg, T. (in press). Causation in legal and moral reasoning. In Michael Waldmann Ed., Oxford Handbook of Causal Reasoning. Oxford University Press.
2016
Alicke, M. D., Mandel, D. R, Hilton, D., Gerstenberg, T. & Lagnado, D. A. (2016). Causal conceptions in social explanation and moral evaluation: A historical tour. Perspectives in Psychological Science. 10 (6), 790-812.
Bechlivanidis, C. & Lagnado, D. (2016). Time Reordered: Causal perception Guides the Interpretation of Temporal Order Cognition, 146, 58-66. [pdf]
Bramley, N. R., Gerstenberg, T. & Tenenbaum, J. B. (2016). Natural Science: Active learning in dynamic physical microworlds. In Papafragou, A., Grodner, D., Mirman, D., & Trueswell, J.C. (Eds.) Proceedings of the 38th Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society (pp. 2567 - 2572). Austin, TX: Cognitive Science Society. [pdf][supplement]
Connor Desai, S., Reimers, S & Lagnado, D. (2016). Consistency and credibility in legal reasoning: A Bayesian network approach. In Papafragou, A., Grodner, D., Mirman, D., & Trueswell, J.C. (Eds.) Proceedings of the 38th Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society. Austin, TX: Cognitive Science Society.
Fenton, N., Neil, M. Lagnado, D. A., Marsh, W. Yet, B., & Constantinou, A. (2016). How to model mutually exclusive events based on independent causal pathways in Bayesian network models. Knowledge-Based Systems, 113, 39-50.
McCormack, T., Bramley, N. R., Frosch, C., Patrick, F. & Lagnado, D. A. (2016). Children's Use of Interventions to Learn Causal Structure. Journal of Experimental Child Psychology. 141, 1-22. [pdf]
Smit, N., Lagnado, D. A., Morgan, R. & Fenton, N. (2016). Using Bayesian networks to guide the assessment of new evidence in an appeal case. Crime Science 5 (1), 1-12.2015
Newell, B.R, Lagnado, D.A., & Shanks, D.R. (2015). Straight choices: the psychology of judgment and decision. Psychology Press. Second edition.
Bramley, N. R., Dayan, P. & Lagnado, D. A. (2015). Staying afloat on Neurath's boat: Heuristics for sequential causal learning. In Noelle, D. C. et al (Eds.) Proceedings of the 37th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society (pp. 262-267). Austin, TX: Cognitive Science Society. [pdf][demo E1][demo E2]
Bramley, N. R., Lagnado, D. A. & Speekenbrink, M. (2015). Conservative forgetful scholars: How people learn causal structure through interventions. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory & Cognition, Vol 41(3), 708-731.[pdf]
Chockler, H., Fenton N.E., Koeppens J., & Lagnado, D. A. (2015). Causal analysis for attributing responsibility in legal cases. 15th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence & Law (ICAIL 2015), San Diego, June 8-12, 2015, pp 33-42
Gerstenberg, T., Goodman, N. D., Lagnado, D. A. & Tenenbaum, J. B. (2015). How, whether, why: Causal judgments as counterfactual contrasts. In Proceedings of the 37th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society.
Lagnado, D. A. & Gerstenberg, T. (2015). A difference-making framework for intuitive judgments of responsibility. In D. Shoemaker (Ed.), Oxford Studies in Agency and Responsibility, 2, Oxford University Press
Kominsky, J. F., Phillips, J., Gerstenberg, T., Lagnado, D. A. & Knobe, J. (2015). Causal superseding, Cognition, 137, 196-209.[pdf]
McCormack, T., Frosch, C., Patrick, F. & Lagnado, D. A. (2015). Temporal and statistical Information in causal structure learning. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 41, 395–416.[pdf]
Nikolic, M. & Lagnado, D. A. (2015). There aren't plenty more fish in the sea: A causal network approach. British Journal of Psychology. [pdf]
Sloman, S. & Lagnado, D. A. (2015). Causality in thought. Annual Review of Psychology, 66, 223-247.[pdf]
Wilkinson L, Tai YF, Lin CS, Lagnado DA, Brooks DJ, Piccini P, Jahanshahi M (2015). Probabilistic classification learning with corrective feedback is associated with in vivo striatal dopamine release in the ventral striatum, while learning without feedback is not. Human Brain Mapping.
de Zoete, J, Sjerps, M, Lagnado, D. A. & Fenton, N.E. (2015). Modelling crime linkage with Bayesian Networks. Science & Justice.[pdf]
2014
Bramley, N. R., Gerstenberg T. & Lagnado, D. A. (2014). The order of things: Inferring causal structure from temporal patterns. In P. Bello, M. Guarini, M. McShane, & B. Scassellati (Eds.), Proceedings of the 36th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society. Austin, TX: Cognitive Science Society. Austin, TX: Cognitive Science Society.
Fenton, N., Lagnado, D. A., Hsu, A., Berger, D. & Neil, M. (2014). Response to “On the use of the likelihood ratio for forensic evaluation: Response to Fenton et al.” Science & Justice, 54 (4), 319-320.
Gerstenberg, T. & Lagnado, D. A. (2014). Attributing responsibility: Actual and counterfactual worlds. In J. Knobe, T. Lombrozo & S. Nichols (Eds.), Oxford Studies of Experimental Philosophy.
Gerstenberg, T., Goodman, N. D., Lagnado, D. A. & Tenenbaum, J. B. (2014). From counterfactual simulation to causal judgment. In P. Bello, M. Guarini, M. McShane, & B. Scassellati (Eds.), Proceedings of the 36th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society. Austin, TX: Cognitive Science Society.
Gerstenberg, T., Ullman, T. D., Kleiman-Weiner, M., Lagnado, D. A. & Tenenbaum, J. B. (2014). Wins above replacement: Responsibility attributions as counterfactual replacements. In P. Bello, M. Guarini, M. McShane, & B. Scassellati (Eds.), Proceedings of the 36th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society. Austin, TX: Cognitive Science Society.
Kominsky, J. F., Phillips, J., Knobe, J., Gerstenberg, T. & Lagnado, D. A. (2014). Causal supersession. In P. Bello, M. Guarini, M. McShane, & B. Scassellati (Eds.), Proceedings of the 36th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society. Austin, TX: Cognitive Science Society.
2013
Bechlivanidis, C. & Lagnado, D. (2013). Does the “why” tell us the “when”? Psychological Science, 24, 1563-1572.[pdf]
Fenton, N., Neil, M., Lagnado, D. A. (2013). A general structure for legal arguments about evidence using Bayesian networks. Cognitive Science, 37, 61–102. [pdf]
Fenton, N., Berger, D., Lagnado, D., Neil, M. & Hsu, A. (2013). When ‘neutral’ evidence still has probative value, Science & Justice.[pdf]
Lagnado, D.A., Fenton, N., Neil, M. (in press). Legal idioms: a framework for evidential reasoning. Argument and Computation. [pdf]
Gerstenberg, T., Bechlivanidis, C. & Lagnado, D. A. (2013). Back on track: Backtracking in counterfactual reasoning. In M. Knauff, M. Pauen, N. Sebanz, & I. Wachsmuth (Eds.), Proceedings of the 35th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society. Austin, TX: Cognitive Science Society. [pdf]
Gerstenberg, T. & Lagnado, D. A. (in press). Attributing responsibility: Actual and counterfactual worlds. In J. Knobe, T. Lombrozo & S. Nichols (Eds.), Oxford Studies of Experimental Philosophy.
Lagnado, D. A., Gerstenberg, T. & Zultan, R. (2013). Causal responsibility and counterfactuals. Cognitive Science, 37, 1036-1073.[pdf]
2012
Frosch, C. A., McCormack, T., Lagnado, D.A., Burns, P. (2012). Are causal structure and intervention judgments inextricably linked? A developmental study. Cognitive Science, 36(2), 261-285.
Gerstenberg, T. & Lagnado, D. (2012). When contributions make a difference: Explaining order effects in responsibility attributions. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 19(4), 729-736. [pdf]
Gerstenberg, T., Goodman, N. D., Lagnado, D. A. & Tenenbaum, J. B. (2012). Noisy Newtons: Unifying process and dependency accounts of causal attribution. In N. Miyake, D. Peebles, & R. P. Cooper (Eds.), Proceedings of the 34th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society. Austin, TX: Cognitive Science Society, 378-383. [pdf][demo]
Gerstenberg, T. & Goodman, N. D. (2012). Ping Pong in Church: Productive use of concepts in human probabilistic inference. In N. Miyake, D. Peebles, & R. P. Cooper (Eds.), Proceedings of the 34th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society. Austin, TX: Cognitive Science Society. [pdf]
McCormack, T., Frosch, C.A., & Burns, P. (2012). The relationship between children’s causal and counterfactual judgments. In C. Hoerl, T. McCormack, & S. R. Beck (Eds.), Understanding counterfactuals, understanding causation: Issues in Philosophy and Psychology. Oxford, England: Oxford University Press.
McCoy, J., Ullman, T., Stuhlmüller, A., Gerstenberg, T. & Tenenbaum, J. B. (2012). Probabilistic generative models for counterfactual reasoning and blame attribution.In N. Miyake, D. Peebles, & R. P. Cooper (Eds.), Proceedings of the 34th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society. Austin, TX: Cognitive Science Society. [pdf]
Zultan, R., Gerstenberg, T. & Lagnado, D. A. (2012). Finding fault: Causality and counterfactuals in group attributions. Cognition, 125(3), 429-440. [pdf]
2011
Channon, S., Lagnado, D. A., Fitzpatrick, S., Drury, H. & Taylor, I. (2011). Judgments of cause and blame: Sensitivity to intentionality in Asperger's syndrome. Journal of Autism and Developmental Disorders.
Frosch, C. A. & Johnson-Laird, P. N. (2011). Is everyday causation deterministic or probabilistic? Acta Psychologica. 137, 280 – 291.
Gerstenberg, T., Lagnado, D. A, Speekenbrink, M. & Cheung, C. (2011). Rational order effects in responsibility attributions. In L. Carlson, C. Hölscher, & T. Shipley (Eds.), Proceedings of the 33rd Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society. Austin, TX: Cognitive Science Society, 1715-1720. [pdf] [data] [demo]
Gerstenberg, T., Ejova, A. & Lagnado, D. A. (2011). Blame the skilled. In L. Carlson, C. Hölscher, & T. Shipley (Eds.), Proceedings of the 33rd Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society. Austin, TX: Cognitive Science Society,720-725. [pdf] [data] [demo]
Lagnado, D. A. (2011). Thinking about Evidence. in Dawid, P., Twining, W., Vasaliki, M. (ed.) Evidence, Inference and Enquiry. Oxford University Press/British Academy. [pdf]
Lagnado, D. A. (2011). Causal Thinking. in McKay-Illari, P., Russo, F., Williamson, J. (ed.) Causality in the Sciences. Oxford University Press. [pdf]
Levati, V. & Zultan, R. (2011). Cycles of Conditional Cooperation in a Real-Time Voluntary Contribution Mechanism. Games, 2(1), 1-15. [pdf]
Hagmayer, Y. & Lagnado, D. A. (2011). Causal models in judgment and decision making. In Dhami, M., Schlottman, A., Waldmann, M. (ed.) Judgment and decision making as a skill: Learning, Development and Evolution. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Schächtele, S., Gerstenberg, T. & Lagnado, D. A. (2011). Beyond outcomes: The influence of intentions and deception. In L. Carlson, C. Hölscher, & T. Shipley (Eds.), Proceedings of the 33rd Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society. Austin, TX: Cognitive Science Society, 1860-1865. [pdf]
Wilkinson, L., Beigi, M., Lagnado, D. A. & Jahanshahi, M. (2011). Deep brain stimulation of the subthalamic nucleus selectively improves learning of weakly associated cue combinations during probabilistic classification learning in Parkinson's disease. Neuropsychology, 25, 286-294.
2010
Beaman, C.P., Smith, P. T., Frosch, C.A., & McCloy, R. (2010). Less-is-more effects without the recognition heuristic. Judgment and Decision Making, 5, 258–271.
Channon, S., Lagnado, D. A., Drury, H., Matheson, E., Fitzpatrick, S., Shieff, C., Mendoza, N. & Maudgil, D. (2010). Causal reasoning and intentionality judgments after frontal brain lesions. Social Cognition.
Gerstenberg, T., Lagnado, D. A. (2010). Spreading the Blame: The Allocation of Responsibility amongst Multiple Agents. Cognition, 115, 166-171. [pdf]
Gerstenberg, T., Lagnado, D. A. & Kareev, Y. (2010). The dice are cast: The role of intended versus actual contributions in responsibility attribution. In S. Ohlsson & R. Catrambone (Eds.), Proceedings of the 32nd Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society. Austin, TX: Cognitive Science Society, 1697-1702. [pdf] [data] [demo]
Goerg, S., Kube, S. & Zultan, R. (2010). Treating Equals Unequally - Incentives in Teams, Workers' Motivation and Production Technology. Journal of Labor Economics, 28, 747-772. [pdf]
Hagmayer, Y., Meder, B., Osman, M., Mangold, S. & Lagnado, D. A. (2010). Spontaneous Causal Learning While Controlling A Dynamic System. The Open Psychology Journal, 3, 145-162. [pdf]
Lagnado, D. A. & Speekenbrink, M. (2010). The Influence of Delays in Real-Time Causal Learning. The Open Psychology Journal, 3, 184-195. [pdf]
McCloy, R., Beaman, C.P., Frosch, C.A., & Goddard, K. (2010). Fast and frugal framing effects. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory and Cognition. 36(4), 1043-1052.
Meder, B., Gerstenberg, T., Hagmayer, Y. & Waldmann, M. (2010). Observing and Intervening: Rational and Heuristic Models of Causal Decision Making. The Open Psychology Journal, 3, 119-135. [pdf]
Perales, J. C., Shanks, D. R. & Lagnado, D. A. (2010). Causal Representation and Behavior: The Integration of Mechanism and Covariation. The Open Psychology Journal, 3, 174-183. [pdf]
Wilkinson, L., Jahanshahi, M., Gahir, H., Dharmindra, A. & Lagnado, D. A. (2010). Medication impairs probabilistic classification learning in Parkinson's disease. Neuropsychologia.
Zultan, R., Bar-Hillel, M., & Guy, N. (2010). When Being Wasteful Is Better than Feeling Wasteful. Judgment and Decision Making, 7(5),489-496 [pdf]
2009
Lagnado, D. A. (2009). A causal framework for integrating learning and reasoning. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 32, 211-212.
Moore, J. W., Lagnado, D. A, Deal, D. C. & Haggard, P. (2009). Feelings of control:contingency determines experience of action. Cognition, 110, 279-283. [pdf]
Speekenbrink, M., Lagnado, D. A., Wilkinson, L., Jahanshahi, M. & Shanks, D. R. (2009). Models of probabilistic category learning in Parkinson’s disease: Strategy use and the effects of L-dopa. Journal of Mathematical Psychology.
2008
Lagnado, D. A. & Channon, S. (2008). Judgments of Cause and Blame: The influence of Intentionality and Foreseeability. Cognition, 108, 754-770. [pdf]
Lagnado, D. A. &Harvey, N. (2008). The impact of discredited evidence. Psychonomic Bulletin and Review, 15 (6), 1166-1173. [pdf]
Wilkinson, L., Lagnado, D. A., Quallo, M. & Jahanshahi, M. (2008). The effect of feedback on non-motor probabilistic classification learning in Parkinson’s disease. Neuropsychologia, 46 (11), 2683-2695.
Yu, E., Lagnado, D. A. & Chater,N. (2008). Retrospective evaluations of gambling wins: Evidence for a 'peak-end' rule. Proceedings of the 30th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society, Love, B., McRae, K., Sloutsky, V. (ed.) , 77-82.
2007
Lagnado, D. A. (2007). Perspectives on Daniel Kahneman. Thinking & Reasoning, 13, 1-4.
Lagnado, D. A. & Shanks, D. R. (2007). Dual concerns with the dualist approach. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 30 (3), 271-272.
Lagnado, D.A., Waldmann, M. R., Hagmayer, Y., & Sloman, S.A. (2007). Beyond covariation: Cues to causal structure. Gopnik, A., & Schultz, L. (Eds.), Causal learning: Psychology, philosophy, and computation. OUP. [pdf]
Hagmayer, Y., Sloman, S.A., Lagnado, D.A. & Waldmann, M. R., (2007). Causal reasoning through intervention. Gopnik, A., & Schultz, L. (Eds.), Causal learning: Psychology, philosophy, and computation. OUP. [pdf]
Newell, B.R, Lagnado, D. A., & Shanks, D. R. (2007). Straight choices: The psychology of judgment and decision. Psychology Press.
Newell, B.R., Lagnado, D.A., & Shanks, D.R. (2007). Challenging the role of implicit processes in probabilistic category learning. Psychonomic Bulletin and Review, 14, 505-511.
2006
Lagnado, D. A., Newell, B., Kahan, S., & Shanks, D. R. (2006). Insight and strategy in multiple cue learning. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 135, 162-183. [pdf]
Lagnado, D. A., & Sloman, S. A. (2006). Time as a guide to cause. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory & Cognition, 32, 451-460. [pdf]
2005
Sloman, S.A. & Lagnado, D.A. (2005). Do we ‘do’? Cognitive Science, 29, 5–39. [pdf]
Sloman, S.A. & Lagnado, D.A. (2005). The Problem of Induction. In K. Holyoak & R. Morrison (Eds.), Cambridge Handbook of Thinking and Reasoning, Cambridge University Press.
2004
Lagnado, D.A. & Sloman, S.A. (2004). The advantage of timely intervention. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory & Cognition, 30, 856-876. [pdf]
Lagnado, D.A. & Sloman, S.A. (2004). Inside and outside probability judgment. In D. Koehler & N. Harvey (Eds.), Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making. Blackwell.
Sloman, S.A. & Lagnado, D.A. (2004). Causal Invariance in Reasoning and Learning. In B. Ross (Ed.), The Psychology of Learning and Motivation, 44, 287-325. San Diego: Elsevier Science.
2003
Lagnado, D.A. & Shanks, D.R. (2003). The influence of hierarchy on probability judgment. Cognition, 89, 157-178.
2002
Lagnado, D.A. & Shanks, D.R. (2002). Probability judgments in hierarchical learning: a conflict between predictiveness and coherence. Cognition, 83, 81-112.
Lagnado, D.A. & Sloman, S.A. (2002). Learning causal structure. In W. Gray & C. D. Schunn (Eds.), Proceedings of the twenty-fourth annual conference of the cognitive science society, Erlbaum. [pdf]
Sloman, S.A. & Lagnado D.A. (2002). Counterfactual undoing in deterministic causal reasoning. In W. Gray & C. D. Schunn (Eds.), Proceedings of the twenty-fourth annual conference of the cognitive science society, Erlbaum.
2000
Shanks, D.R & Lagnado, D.A. (2000). Sub-optimal reasons for rejecting optimality? Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 23, 761-762.