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Peter Gudge
Tel: +44 (0)20 3108 3206

Hypothesis Testing Analysis


Hypothesis Testing Analysis (1 day course)

Analysis is an integral part of police and public safety decision making – if a crime problem is clearly understood, it can help identify the solutions that will most likely be effective.  Although the profile of analysis has been raised in recent years, its routine production has often resulted in many analysis products often offering only a descriptive presentation of the problem that is being examined, rather than one that is explanatory in its tone.

This one-day masterclass instructs the use of a hypothesis testing methodology to improve the explanatory content of crime and intelligence analysis, and illustrate its use with a rich range of examples: from street prostitution to drug dealing; from burglary to violent crime; from street drinking to youth-related ASB.  The course takes delegates through a step-by-step guide on the hypothesis testing analysis approach and illustrates how it leads to producing analytical products that are richer in explanatory and interpretative substance, helps to improve commissioning dialogue, and generates results that help to more specifically identify how a crime problem can be tackled.

The hypothesis testing crime analysis approach is now adopted by many police agencies in the UK and overseas as a standard method for conducting crime and intelligence analysis.  The approach has been applied to many different crime types and public safety issues: from cyber-crime to bicycle theft, from sexual assault to domestic violence, and from demand reduction to dealing with problem families.

The one-day masterclass is interactive, will involve working on real crime issues in a classroom environment, but without the use of computers.

Hypothesis Testing Analysis (1 day course)

Aimed at: Police, CSP analysts, researchers and information officers

Length: 1 day

Entry requirements: The course is designed to cater for all levels.  We discuss the current good and bad things about analysis production - its content and commissioning - and how a hypothesis testing approach can improve the explanatory substance of analytical materials.  We then take you through the steps of the process using existing crime (or other community safety) problems.

Course content:

A. The hypothesis testing analysis approach

We begin by discussing the current problems with analysis and the role it should play to inform intelligence-led decision-making.  We then introduce the concept of hypothesis testing and illustrate it using examples from other fields of popular science.  We then discuss how a hypothesis testing analysis process can fit into existing police/CSP NIM processes and the problem solving SARA process, and suggest a structure for problem profiles that utilise a hypothesis testing approach

B. The overview

The production of an overview is the first stage in the process for constructing a problem profile following the hypothesis testing approach.  This involves recording key features about the problem so that it can be clearly defined, with the overview then being used by the key stakeholders of the problem to help them determine the main reasons why the problem exists i.e. the hypotheses.

C. Determining hypotheses

This part of the course takes analysts through the process of how to articulate hypotheses from the many reasons to explain the problem that have been stated by stakeholders.  We also recommend a process that helps to qualify and short-list hypotheses that will then be selected for directing the analysis.

D. Testing hypotheses

In this session we illustrate that no extra skills or training in new techniques are required to test hypotheses - analysts can use their existing knowledge.  This session includes identifying the data that are required for testing hypotheses, the techniques to use and examples of how the results of the analyses can be presented

E. Interpreting and critiquing the results

In this session we illustrate how the results from hypothesis testing can be interpreted and critiqued.  We also illustrate how the results from testing each hypothesis can be brought together to provide a richer array of intelligence and evidence that helps to explain why a crime problem exists.

F. Writing the problem profile and review

We finish by reviewing how a problem profile can be written by following the hypothesis testing approach and identify a number of resources that provide additional reference information to help analysts adopt this process in the work place.

Course tutor: Spencer Chainey

Hypothesis Testing Analysis (1 day course)

“For 18 months we struggled to get to grips with a violent crime problem.  Previous problem profiles failed to explain why there had been this increase.  Hypothesis testing analysis helped to exactly identify what the main causes were.” Police Chief Superintendent

“The hypothesis testing approach to conducting analysis identified why burglary had increased, and in turn helped us think what response was most likely to work.” Community Safety Manager

“The hypothesis testing analysis approach is fundamentally changing how we go about doing analysis and working out how to tackle problems” Police Force Head of Local Policing

Hypothesis Testing Analysis (1 day course)

Course Dates: TBC

Course Cost: £475

Group Discount: 10% discount for bookings of two or more. To qualify, all group delegates must be booked at the same time.

Accommodation: UCL has a number of residences that are available to book when courses are held in the summer months.  These are available from £45 per night.  We recommend Frances Gardner House or James Lighthill House due to their proximity to the JDI and their facilities.  Please visit this site ( for more details and to make any accommodation bookings. We advise booking early.  The accommodation is basic, but clean and fantastic value for London.

For something a bit grander we recommend the Cartwright Gardens Apartments:

For short stays:

For longer stays:

Page last modified on 07 nov 12 11:45