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Jill Dando Institute of Crime Science

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Bayes's Theorem and the Weighing of Evidence by Juries

Although at first sight there may appear to be little connection between Statistics and Law, the problems they tackle are in many ways identical: each is concerned with interpretation of evidence. However, lawyers and juries are (often proudly) ignorant of the logical principles and methods that statisticians have developed to tackle this, which can lead to serious misinterpretations of statistical evidence. I discuss the uses and misuses of statistical arguments in Court, emphasising in particular the potential of likelihood and Bayesian approaches to shed light on subtle issues. This is illustrated by my experiences as an expert witness for the defence in the first (unsuccessful) appeal by Sally Clark against her conviction for the murder of her two babies.

Speaker

Philip Dawid is Professor of Statistics at Cambridge University, having been Pearson Professor of Statistics at University College London from 1989 to 2007. He is Chartered Statistician and Fellow of the Royal Statistical Society, which has awarded him Guy Medals in Bronze and Silver; elected Fellow of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics; elected Member of the International Statistical Institute; and a Member of the Organising Committee for the Valencia International Meetings on Bayesian Statistics. He has served as Editor of the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society (Series B) and of Biometrika, and is currently an Editor of Bayesian Analysis. He was President of the International Society for Bayesian Analysis for the year 2000.