|Research bulletin: understanding the crime fall|
MSc Open Evening - 14 Scholarships
WHAT WORKS MASTERCLASSES
12 November 2014
7-18 July 2014
Hypothesis Testing Analysis
Advanced Hotspot Analysis
ICIAC 2012 Stream 3: Classes and workshops
Abstracts and slides
CLASS 3C: IBM i2 Solutions For Effective Law Enforcement: delivering a joined up approach to intelligence-led policing (G)
Ron Fellows, Global Subject Matter Expert for Public Safety and Dan Pearson, Client Technical Professional i2, IBM
Slides: Yet to be supplied by presenter
Law enforcement agencies are experiencing increasing performance pressure with static or declining resources. While information provides a potential solution, the sheer volume of internal and external data can overwhelm most agencies.
In the future information is going to be the key force multiplier. Organizations that maximize their ability to quickly extract value from their data will be those that succeed in reducing crime, meeting emerging threats, improving officer safety and deliver on rising public expectations.
With situational awareness, investigation, analysis and collaboration tools that integrate into your existing organizational structure join IBM’s Dan Pearson and Ron Fellows to see how Intelligent Law Enforcement can:
- Extend agency resources
- Enhance traditional policing
- Increase officer and community safety
- Provide an effective toolset for crime reduction
CLASS 3D: Identifying the spatial dispersion of crime increase using the Dispersion Calculator (I)
Jerry Ratcliffe, Department of Criminal Justice, Temple University, Philadelphia
Many crime statistics compare crime rates over time, sometimes highlighting areas that have gone up since the previous year. These percentage changes can often be dramatic for relatively low crime areas and can disproportionately focus attention away from significant problems. Alternatively, snapshot ranking of areas by crime rate can show where crime problems exist, but tell us little about the relative contribution of an area to a crime increase. Most available tools are often aspatial and say nothing about the relationships between spatial units. What is frequently needed when citywide crime rates get worse is a sense of how much a beat or district contributed to the overall crime increase in the larger area.
This presentation discusses dispersion analysis, a technique that measures the relative dispersion of a crime increase across a region. It allows for the identification of particular areas that are sufficiently influential to drive up the overall jurisdictional crime rate. A combination of the order of areal units from a dispersion analysis with a measure of the local level of spatial association is used to demonstrate a tool that can identify clustered areas of emerging crime problems. The identification of these second-order spatial processes may be beneficial to police analysts and crime prevention practitioners who are interested in the identification of clusters of emerging crime hotspots. The process is demonstrated with an example of robbery rates in police sectors of Philadelphia, PA, USA.
CLASS 3E: Improving the explanatory content of problem profiles using hypothesis testing (G)
Spencer Chainey, Department of Security and Crime Science, University College London
Analysis is an integral part of police and community safety decision making – if a crime problem is clearly understood, it can help identify the solutions that will most likely be effective. Although the profile of analysis has been raised in recent years, its routine production has often resulted in many analysis products often offering only a descriptive presentation of the problem that is being examined, rather than one that is more explanatory in its tone. In this class we explore the use of a hypothesis testing methodology to improve the explanatory content of crime and intelligence analysis, and illustrate its use with examples from Greater Manchester and West Midlands. We argue that this approach produces analytical products that are richer in explanatory and interpretative substance, helps to improve commissioning dialog, and generates results that help to more specifically identify how a crime problem can be tackled.
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