ICIAC 2011 Seminar stream 6B

Spatio-temporal analysis of crime (I)

Abstracts and slides

A stab in the dark? Analysing temporal aspects of street robbery

Lisa Tompson, Department of Security and Crime Science, University College London

Crime is known to concentrate along temporal dimensions; by season, by month, by weekday and by hour. An enduring research question is why such temporal patterns in crime exist, or exhibit the particular nuances that they do. Seasonal patterns in crime have historically been explained with reference to weather variables such as temperature. This research advances previous studies by considering the role that the meteorological condition of darkness plays in predicting street robbery levels.

By assigning importance to the time of day that a robbery occurs, we were able to faithfully represent how environmental conditions change seasonally. Therefore, using temporal hourly subsets of street robbery data we modelled the relationship between temperature, the presence of darkness, and the interaction of these variables. The results of the time-series analysis showed that these explanatory variables were only significant in explaining robbery between 4pm and 10pm; the period of time where there is a stark contrast across the seasons in the study area. The direction of the coefficients suggests that ‘winterness’ is a factor in explaining levels of street robbery in the early evening. We argue that darkness is an important environmental condition which facilitates street robbery by inhibiting guardianship of victims.

This talk will outline the research; summarise the challenges of analysing temporal data; present the key findings and devote time at the end to discussing the implications for crime prevention activities.

Presenter's slides: ICIAC11_6B_LTompson

The importance of 'time' in serial crime investigation

Colin Johnson, National Policing Improvement Agency

No abstract available.  Colin was a late stand in for a Circe Monteiro from the University of Pernambuco, Brazil

Presenter's slides: ICIAC11_6B_CJohnson

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