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What, if anything, can the experience of (research on) Eastern Europe say to us as we head towards Brexit? Lessons may lie above all in getting to grips with the tempo and nature of political change, its (un)predictability and likely channels.
1 August 2016
Starts: Aug 1, 2016 12:00:00 AM
On Thursday night, for the third time since January 2015, President François Hollande was faced with a mass murder on French soil. An ashen-faced Hollande, almost looking like a broken man, appeared on television on Friday at 4am and declared: “This is undoubtedly a terrorist attack; the whole of France is under the threat of an Islamic terrorist attack”.
18 July 2016 More...
Starts: Jul 18, 2016 12:00:00 AM
In addition to marking a politically decisive moment in British history, the campaigns in advance of the referendum on the UK’s membership in the EU were exciting objects of study for Classicists in terms of the political use of oratory.
11 July 2016 More...
Starts: Jul 11, 2016 12:00:00 AM
Ukraine's election turning point?
11 June 2014
25 May 2014
Dr Andrew Wilson (UCL SSSEES) explains why Ukraine's early presidential election may prove a turning point for the troubled country.
A few weeks ago, there were real doubts that Ukraine's election would even go ahead. But in Kiev at least, where I was until Monday, the optimists are beginning to think they will not only be held, but will prove to be the turning point in the crisis.
But first, what are the key things to look for on Sunday?
The first important question is how many are able and willing to vote. Notwithstanding Thursday's deadly attacks in Donetsk, the authorities in Kiev think they have contained the crisis in the east and even hope to conduct the voting in the parts of the separatist Donbass region that they control, which are currently the south and west of Donetsk and the north of Luhansk.
Crimea, on the other hand, looks like a lost cause, in voting terms at least, though the authorities will offer voting facilities just across the "border" in Kherson.
If enough voters turn out elsewhere in the east and south, and national turnout is something around 60%, this would a big victory for the authorities in Kiev.
The second criterion for success is that Russia does not use criticism of the process to increase its intervention once more. Complaints of fraud from any of the losing candidates would only play into Russia's hands.