Earth Sciences

Professor Bill McGuire is a contributing author of the new IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX), launched on November 18th.

The report concludes that it is virtually certain that on a global scale hot days will become even hotter and occur more often; probably increasing by a factor of 10 in most regions of the world under a high emissions scenario. Heavy precipitation is also expected to occur more often, and the wind speed of tropical cyclones likely to increase while their number will either remain constant or decrease.

Professor McGuire was involved in the writing and compilation of Chapter 3 of the assessment, part of which addresses the relationship between climate change and geological hazards. In this context, the report acknowledges that episodes of past rapid climate change have elicited a response from the solid Earth, including through promoting earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, and notes that recent ice wastage in Alaska has been linked to increased seismicity. In the future, the report highlights the likelihood of increased mass movements in the short term, and – in the longer term - the possibility of anthropogenic climate change more widely influencing seismic and volcanic activity.