UCL economists warn of historic economic risks from Brexit

47 economists from the Department of Economics at UCL (ranked  first in the 2014 Research Excellence Framework) have added their voices to a warning that the economic costs of Brexit would be high.  The 47 have together signed a statement (, now agreed to by over 200 other economists. It says:

Focusing entirely on the economics, we consider that it would be a major mistake for the UK to leave the European Union.

Leaving would entail significant long-term costs. The size of these costs would depend on the amount of control the UK chooses to exercise over such matters as free movement of labour, and the associated penalty it would pay in terms of access to the single market. The numbers calculated by the LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance, the OECD and the Treasury describe a plausible range for the scale of these costs.

The uncertainty over precisely what kind of relationship the UK would find itself in with the EU and the rest of the world would also weigh heavily for many years. In addition, there is a sizeable risk of a short-term shock to confidence if we were to see a Leave vote on June 23rd. The Bank of England has signalled this concern clearly, and we share it.

Head of Department, Professor Orazio Attanasio said: These signatures confirm the breadth of the consensus among academic economists that Brexit would pose historic economic risks.

The 47 signatories are:
Professor Orazio Attanasio
Professor Sir Richard Blundell
Professor Antonio Cabrales
Professor Wendy Carlin
Professor Pedro Carneiro
Dr Parama Chaudhury
Professor Andrew Chesher
Dr Gabriella Conti
Professor Martin Cripps
Dr Wei Cui
Professor Mariacristina De Nardi
Professor Richard Disney
Professor Jan Eeckhout
Professor Eric French
Professor Raffaella Giacomini
Dr Liam Graham
Professor Antonio Guarino
Dr Hedvig Horvath
Professor Steffen Huck
Professor Philippe Jehiel
Dr Cloda Jenkins
Professor Patrick Kehoe
Professor Dennis Kristensen
Professor Guy Laroque
Dr Valerie Lechene
Dr Attila Lindner
Dr Jeremy Lise
Professor Stephen Machin
Dr Konrad Mierendorff
Dr Lars Nesheim
Dr Aureo De Paula
Dr Malcolm Pemberton
Professor Fabien Postel-Vinay
Professor Ian Preston
Professor Imran Rasul
Professor Morten O. Ravn
Professor Jean-Marc Robin
Dr Adam Rosen
Professor Uta Schoenberg
Professor Vasiliki Skreta
Dr Christian Spielmann
Professor Stephen Smith
Dr Vincent Sterk,
Dr Michela Tincani
Dr Marcos Vera-Hernandez
Dr Donald Verry
Dr Frank Witte

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