Understanding the shipping system

UCL is leading an Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council-funded project to build a holistic model of the shipping system, its current emissions, and those it would produce under a range of future scenarios.  

Researchers from the UCL Energy Institute and UCL Mechanical Engineering have joined forces with experts from four other universities and industry partners to explore ways to increase energy efficiency and design the vessels of the future.  

Tristan Smith (who will co-ordinate the project from UCL Energy Institute) explains the scope of the £1.65m three-year project.

An oil tanker

"It is estimated that shipping accounts for 3.3% of CO2 emissions in the world. If we are to reduce overall CO2 emissions by the government's target of 60% by 2050 to mitigate global warming, shipping must play its part.  

The importance of shipping to the UK economy should not be underestimated. Over 90% of the UK's imports and exports are transported by ships and UK shipping plays a vital role in transportation links to our neighbouring countries and to its many islands. Shipping provides the means of exploiting offshore natural resources including fishing, offshore mining, oil and gas reserves, and more recently cruise ships and liners have offered holidays afloat.  

Today, shipping contributes some 10 billion annually to the UK's GDP, thereby contributing some three billion pounds to the UK Exchequer. In terms of employment, the UK shipping industry is responsible for employing over 200,000 people either directly in shipping or indirectly in service industries.  

While few ships are actually built in the UK today, the UK remains one of the world's leading providers of marine services, is home to many shipping companies, has many marine equipment manufacturers and is the centre for international shipping organisations such as International Maritime Organisation and the Baltic Exchange.

There are currently about 750 ships over 1,000 tonnes registered with UK classification societies, and the number of UK-registered ships continues to increase despite the recent downturn in the economy in both the domestic and international markets.  

We currently lack a holistic understanding of the shipping industry. Its drawn out contractual, technological and financial evolution has obscured understanding of its sensitivities and left many commercial habits engrained and unchanged for literally hundreds of years.  

To understand the shipping system, the relationship between its principal components – transport logistics and ship designs – must be examined. Only then, can future logistical and ship concepts be optimised to achieve maximum reduction of carbon emissions. Through this understanding and optimisation, projections can be made for future trends in the demand for shipping, the impacts of technical and policy solutions, the barriers to their implementation, and the best way to introduce them.

UCL is leading a multidisciplinary team of geographers, economists, logistics experts, naval architects, marine engineers, human factor experts and energy modellers from four other universities – Newcastle, Strathclyde, Hull and Plymouth – with collaboration from industry partners including Lloyds Register, British Maritime Technologies, Rolls Royce, Shell and the UK Ministry of Defence.

Our analysis of the shipping industry will extend to 2050 and involve the generation of future concept designs both for ships and infrastructure regimes. The model will project trends for global trade flows, but it will have particular focus on the UK's international and domestic passenger and freight transport.  

By working in partnership to understand the complexities of this global industry, we hope to find solutions and strategies to reduce its impact on the future of our planet.

The project will start in earnest in the new year, and is currently recruiting PhD students. To follow its progress or apply for the PhD opportunities, please visit the Low Carbon Shipping website."

Image: an oil tanker